13096 Blackbird #15 · Garden Grove, CA 92843

$159,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 574 sqft · Manufactured · 80 Days on market

Built 2026 $277/sqft · 85% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Low space rent of $1200 per month. Completed Soon ! “Brand NEW “ Architectural Modern manufactured home. 2 bedroom 1 Bathroom, Open Floor plan. Luxury bath with amazing 2 person stone shower. Nice spacious private side yard with tons of potential for planting. Large closets. This home is energy efficient with great insulation and fire rated widows. Amenities also include a wonderful clubhouse, large pool and playground. This is a great and safe family community. Close to Freeway, shopping , dining and much more.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $660 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 1.8% in Garden Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#343 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Garden Grove Unified (suburban): math 38% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #132 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.17%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,713
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: 85.50%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13096 Blackbird St #151	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	616 (+7%)	12mo	$87,000	$141	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $16,401
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $68,891
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92843

• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,385 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $660

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,549

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12777 Garden Grove Blvd Garden Grove, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	731	$2,470	$3.38	7d	3	0.26mi
12451 El Rey Pl Garden Grove, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,198	$3.14	24d	2	0.31mi
12361 El Rey Pl Garden Grove, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$2,199	$3.38	43d	1	0.34mi
13061 Lampson Ave Garden Grove, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	847	$2,550	$3.01	10d	2	0.87mi
1806 N Fairview St Unit Q Santa Ana, CA	1.0	1.0	693	$2,526	$3.65	24d	1	0.91mi
11642 Garden Grove Blvd Unit 11656 Garden Grove, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,850	$2.64	13d	1	0.96mi
3630 Westminster Ave Santa Ana, CA	1.0	1.0	696	$2,508	$3.60	22d	1	0.96mi
11632 Garden Grove Blvd Unit 11634 Garden Grove, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,850	$2.64	19d	1	0.98mi
12681 Lewis St Garden Grove, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$2,722	$3.51	1d	1	1.00mi
1500 N Harbor Blvd Santa Ana, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	780	$2,575	$3.30	15d	1	1.09mi
3825 W Garden Grove Blvd Orange, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1112	$2,630	$2.36	2d	3	1.10mi
2111 W 17th St Santa Ana, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	756	$2,880	$3.81	12d	8	1.15mi
1610 N King St Santa Ana, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	808	$2,400	$2.97	43d	1	1.17mi
11450 Lampson Ave Garden Grove, CA	1.0	1.0	518	$2,000	$3.86	15d	5	1.32mi
200 City Blvd W Orange, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	897	$3,263	$3.64	2d	12	1.37mi
12332 Betty Ln Garden Grove, CA	1.0	1.0	610	$2,100	$3.44	4d	1	1.41mi
11016 Paloma Ave Garden Grove, CA	1.0	1.0	425	$1,750	$4.12	20d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-03-30
    listed $159,000 Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Low space rent of $1200 per month. Completed Soon ! “Brand NEW “ Architectural Modern manufactured home. 2 bedroom 1 Bathroom, Open Floor plan. Luxury bath with amazing 2 person stone shower. Nice spacious private side yard with tons of potential for planting. Large closets. This home is energy efficient with great insulation and fire rated widows. Amenities also include a wonderful clubhouse, large pool and playground. This is a great and safe family community. Close to Freeway, shopping , dining and much more.

16. 2026-03-20
    historical $159,000 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Low space rent of $1200 per month. Completed Soon ! “Brand NEW “ Architectural Modern manufactured home. 2 bedroom 1 Bathroom, Open Floor plan. Luxury bath with amazing 2 person stone shower. Nice spacious private side yard with tons of potential for planting. Large closets. This home is energy efficient with great insulation and fire rated widows. Amenities also include a wonderful clubhouse, large pool and playground. This is a great and safe family community. Close to Freeway, shopping , dining and much more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,622
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$2,298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,290
• − Management: −$2,290
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $5,828
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,399
• After-tax cash flow: $6,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Garden Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614880
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,089
• Composite: 44.89/100
• National rank: #2715
• State rank: #132 of 517 in CA

Livability — Garden Grove

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #343
• US rank: #11727

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garden Grove, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 157,355
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,414
• Household income: $81,446
• Rent vs Own: 52.9% rent · 47.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1814.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% Asian 44% Two or more races 15% White 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Foreign-born: 53% · Vietnam, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 20% English-only · Spanish 39% Vietnamese 36% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -826.28%
• Current HPI: 496.9803
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $159,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-20 Coming Soon $159,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2016): $30 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.