9427 Ruby Mist Dr · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$265,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,605 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2014 4,948 sqft lot $102/sqft · 6% below area Est $283k · 6% under $133/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step inside and discover a home built for making memories! With 5 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a versatile game room, there's room for everyone to spread out, relax, and enjoy. The open-concept layout creates an inviting flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas, making game days, holiday gatherings, and everyday moments feel connected. Upstairs, the oversized game room is ready for movie nights, gaming tournaments, a home gym, or whatever your lifestyle calls for. The private primary retreat offers a perfect place to unwind, while the additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Out back, you'll find plenty of yard space for pets, play, grilli

Key facts

• Oversized game room
• Open concept layout
• Yard space

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• OVERSIZED GAME ROOM
• PRIVATE PRIMARY RETREAT
• YARD SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of an association (Sterling Lakes - PMG); Annual association fee of $1,600; Community pool; Basketball court

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Additional parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2014; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas range; Microwave; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Multiple bedrooms on the second floor (sizes approx. 11x14, 14x13, 15x9, 13x9)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; High ceilings; Separate shower; 9 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer included; Dryer included; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (16.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
• Recommended offer: $221k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1148 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,349 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.00%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,235
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: 0.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9430 Grand Spark Dr	0.25mi	5/2.5	2,616 (+0%)	3mo	$289,000	$110	85
9430 Calm Amber Dr	0.35mi	5/2.5	2,616 (+0%)	5mo	$300,000	$115	78
1322 Diamond Drape Dr	0.45mi	5/2.5	2,616 (+0%)	5mo	$215,000	$82	74
9726 Shimmering Lakes Dr	0.21mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,498 (-4%)	3mo	$295,000	$118	72
9935 Clear Diamond Drive Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,657 (+2%)	6mo	$354,000	$133	67
9643 Clear Diamond Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,765 (+6%)	4mo	$328,000	$119	65
9815 Shimmering Lakes Dr	0.25mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,842 (+9%)	0mo	$355,000	$125	64
9915 Bezeled Circle Ln	0.29mi	5/3.0	2,877 (+10%)	11mo	$369,000	$128	58
9439 Emerald Lakes Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,832 (+9%)	3mo	$349,000	$123	50
9107 Serene Hvn	0.55mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,322 (-11%)	2mo	$355,865	$153	50
9435 Silver Beryl Ln	0.32mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,971 (+14%)	6mo	$349,000	$117	48
2518 Platinum Chase Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,361 (-9%)	4mo	$300,000	$127	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-65,247
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-102,618
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1148
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,782 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$812 /mo · $9,741/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$133
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $-247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,095

Max offer price $221,349

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-97	-5% $-172	+0% $-247	+5% $-322	+10% $-397
Rent	-10% $-467	-5% $-357	+0% $-247	+5% $-137	+10% $-27
Rate	-1.0pp $-114	-0.5pp $-180	base $-247	+0.5pp $-316	+1.0pp $-386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9439 Ruby Mist Dr Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2605	$2,276	$0.87	0d	1	0.06mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	14d	1	0.63mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	45d	1	0.76mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1653	$2,669	$1.61	0d	20	0.78mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$3,025	$1.75	0d	6	0.82mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,875	$1.66	45d	7	0.82mi
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	4.0	2531	$2,850	$1.13	45d	1	0.86mi
1014 Star Grass Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,375	$1.15	45d	1	0.98mi
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,950	$1.59	18d	1	1.15mi
10622 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,775	$1.56	45d	1	1.19mi
1119 Toledo Bend Pass Rosharon, TX	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,500	$1.14	45d	1	1.29mi
1403 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2067	$3,450	$1.67	9d	1	1.31mi
10714 Cliffs View Dr Iowa Colony, TX	4.0	3.5	2070	$2,700	$1.30	45d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $133 · $1,596/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Pending 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Pending 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Pending 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Pending 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $265,000 Pending 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $265,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $285,900 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,900 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,900 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,900 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,900 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    listed $295,000 Active 499-char remark
15. 2026-04-24
    historical
16. 2026-04-16
    listed $300,000 Active
17. 2025-09-26
    soldstatus
18. 2023-12-17
    status Pending, Continue to Show
19. 2023-12-13
    status Pending
20. 2023-12-09
    status Option Pending
21. 2023-12-06
    historical
22. 2023-11-21
    price $299,000
23. 2023-10-25
    listed $314,900 Active
24. 2023-10-23
    historical
25. 2015-02-27
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2015-02-04
    status Pending
27. 2015-01-13
    price $203,900
28. 2014-12-10
    listed $201,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,741 · $812/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,741 · $812/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$9,741
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,671
• − Management: −$2,671
• − HOA: −$1,596
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$7,173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,722
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+31.3% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Listed $262,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $285,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-12-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-12-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-12-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-11-21 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-25 Listed $314,900 HARMLS
• 2023-10-23 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2015-02-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-02-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-01-13 Price Changed $203,900 HARMLS
• 2014-12-10 Listed $201,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,741 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.