7438 E Hum Rd #101 · Carefree, AZ 85377

$629,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Condo public records · 171 Days on market

Built 1980 $394/mo HOA · 9% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Lovely and spacious remodeled townhome steps to the center of Carefree. This serene home has 3 ensuite bedrooms, plus a loft office, a bonus game room with a treehouse-like view, and an upscale powder room. Top of the line appliances, as well as incredibly upscale plumbing fixtures, not to mention a heated master bath floor & steam shower. Luxuriate inside or relax on the pretty patios. Also an oversize 2 car garage & tons of storage. Originally a model & larger than the other units. Also enjoy Pickleball, Bocce ball, or the Basketball court, along with a heated pool and spa. Checkout the community firepit with sweeping views. Feel the pride of ownership quality in this tu

Key facts

• $394 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $629k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $463k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $455k (27.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $455k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Black Mountain Elementary School (math 66% / reading 63%, grade B, #104 of 1,109 statewide, top 10%, 495 students, 8% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($554k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $205k; list at $629k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $455,026 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.81%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $113,825
• Equity at exit: $400,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $391,309
• Equity at exit: $731,083

Cash invested: $176,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85377

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,550 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,299
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$786 /mo · $9,435/yr
• Insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$394
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$956
• Net cashflow: $-1,146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,001

Max offer price $463,147

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $157,250
• Closing costs: $18,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7402 Hum Rd Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1737	$2,800	$1.61	21d	1	0.07mi
37212 N Tranquil Trl Unit 18 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1456	$4,000	$2.75	11d	1	0.25mi
1 Easy St #15 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1847	$3,650	$1.98	7d	1	0.33mi
1 Easy St #19 Carefree, AZ	3.0	2.5	1847	$3,900	$2.11	7d	1	0.33mi
1 Easy St #30 Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	2191	$8,000	$3.65	43d	1	0.33mi
1 Easy St #2 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1847	$4,000	$2.17	3d	1	0.33mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit A5 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$4,950	$2.51	43d	1	0.77mi
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 12C Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	2100	$5,500	$2.62	43d	1	0.77mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit B20 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$4,000	$2.03	43d	1	0.77mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit C16 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$5,650	$2.87	43d	1	0.77mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit B16 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$4,500	$2.28	43d	1	0.77mi
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 29C Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$3,900	$1.98	43d	1	0.77mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit A32 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$3,800	$1.93	43d	1	0.77mi
1314 Coyote Pass Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	2786	$12,000	$4.31	43d	1	1.14mi
6525 E Cave Creek Rd Cave Creek, AZ	2.0	2.5	2380	$6,000	$2.52	43d	1	1.24mi
1816 Eagle Claw Dr Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2540	$9,000	$3.54	43d	1	1.29mi
1404 Boulder Pass Carefree, AZ	3.0	2.5	2862	$12,000	$4.19	43d	1	1.35mi
1725 E Staghorn Ln Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1690	$9,500	$5.62	43d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $394 · $4,728/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 32 events

1. 2025-07-07
   status Pending
2. 2025-05-13
   price $629,000
3. 2025-03-04
   status Active
4. 2025-02-26
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
5. 2025-01-17
   listed $639,000 Active
6. 2024-05-13
   historical
7. 2024-03-05
   price $649,900
8. 2023-10-09
   listed $675,000 Active
9. 2023-05-29
   historical
10. 2023-05-09
    price $689,900
11. 2023-02-28
    listed $710,000 Active
12. 2015-08-05
    soldstatus $205,000 Closed
13. 2015-08-05
    soldstatus $205,000
14. 2015-07-28
    historical
15. 2015-07-23
    status Pending
16. 2015-07-12
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
17. 2015-07-04
    status Active
18. 2015-06-18
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
19. 2015-04-02
    status Active
20. 2015-03-22
    status Pending
21. 2015-03-18
    price $219,000
22. 2015-02-15
    price $237,000
23. 2014-10-17
    price $247,000
24. 2014-03-11
    listed $259,000 Active
25. 2004-01-20
    soldstatus $210,000
26. 2004-01-19
    soldstatus $210,000
27. 2003-12-01
    historical
28. 2003-09-02
    listed $212,000
29. 2003-08-30
    historical
30. 2003-04-07
    listed $219,900
31. 1999-03-23
    soldstatus $183,000
32. 1995-10-10
    soldstatus $162,325

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,603
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,234
• − Property taxes: −$9,435
• − Insurance: −$3,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,368
• − Management: −$4,368
• − HOA: −$4,728
• − Depreciation: −$18,298
• Taxable loss: −$24,973
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,994
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Carefree

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #9958

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carefree, AZ
• City population: 3,452
• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 332.8138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+287.5% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-07 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $629,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-04 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-02-26 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-01-17 Listed $639,000 ARMLS
• 2024-05-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-03-05 Price Changed $649,900 ARMLS
• 2023-10-09 Listed $675,000 ARMLS
• 2023-05-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-05-09 Price Changed $689,900 ARMLS
• 2023-02-28 Listed $710,000 ARMLS
• 2015-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2015-08-05 Sold (MLS) $205,000 ARMLS
• 2015-07-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2015-07-23 Pending — ARMLS
• 2015-07-12 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2015-07-04 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2015-06-18 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2015-04-02 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2015-03-22 Pending — ARMLS
• 2015-03-18 Price Changed $219,000 ARMLS
• 2015-02-15 Price Changed $237,000 ARMLS
• 2014-10-17 Price Changed $247,000 ARMLS
• 2014-03-11 Listed $259,000 ARMLS
• 2004-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-19 Sold (MLS) $210,000 ARMLS
• 2003-12-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-09-02 Listed $212,000 ARMLS
• 2003-08-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-04-07 Listed $219,900 ARMLS
• 1999-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $183,000 Public Records
• 1995-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $162,325 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $834 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.