14398 Bellflower Ln · Tuscaloosa, AL 35405

$243,820

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,355 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 2026 7,841 sqft lot $180/sqft · 18% below area Est $299k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you're looking for a new home with amazing value, this one checks all the boxes - including BLINDS, REFRIGERATOR, AND WASHER & DRYER already included! Welcome to this stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a floor plan that stands out. Unlike a typical open concept, this layout provides defined spaces while still offering a natural flow throughout. Each bedroom is generously sized, giving everyone room to relax and unwind. The primary suite includes a large walk-in closet, perfect for staying organized. Step outside to the covered back patio for morning coffee, outdoor dining, or entertaining year-round. With its smart design and beautiful features, this home is one-of-a-kind—you won’t want to miss it! Photos are renderings and stock photos of a completed “Foster" floor plan.

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $244k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-291 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.4% in Tuscaloosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in AL, #2,909 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 462 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,496 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.11%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $298,826
• List price: $243,820
• Delta: -18.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11318 Poppy Ct	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,444 (+7%)	15mo	$244,900	$170	71
11306 Poppy Ct	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,444 (+7%)	16mo	$239,900	$166	70
9218 Parkway Gardens Loop	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (+10%)	3mo	$274,900	$184	66
9332 Parkway Gardens Loop	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (+10%)	3mo	$284,900	$190	60
9294 Penrose Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+14%)	11mo	$265,000	$171	48
9125 Cotton Field Cir	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-4%)	14mo	$229,900	$177	48
1252 Maxwell Cir	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,557 (+15%)	3mo	$239,900	$154	40
10293 Maxwell Way Way	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (+14%)	14mo	$254,900	$165	25
9121 Cotton Field Cir	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (+11%)	23mo	$249,900	$167	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-53,594
• Equity at exit: $36,354

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-51,420
• Equity at exit: $21,081

Cash invested: $68,270 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35405

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 462
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,765 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,279
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$305 /mo · $3,657/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,133

Max offer price $201,760

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-122	-5% $-206	+0% $-291	+5% $-375	+10% $-459
Rent	-10% $-430	-5% $-360	+0% $-291	+5% $-221	+10% $-151
Rate	-1.0pp $-168	-0.5pp $-229	base $-291	+0.5pp $-354	+1.0pp $-418

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,955
• Closing costs: $7,315
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9576 Havenridge Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	2.0	1493	$1,795	$1.20	45d	1	0.13mi
9594 Havenridge Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	2.0	1679	$1,795	$1.07	45d	1	0.14mi
9295 Havenridge Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,745	$1.10	45d	1	0.15mi
9230 Parkway Gardens Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,995	$1.12	45d	1	0.19mi
9212 Parkway Gardens Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,796	$1.01	45d	1	0.20mi
9332 Parkway Gardens Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1497	$1,706	$1.14	45d	1	0.31mi
1451 Maxwell Cir Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1498	$1,745	$1.16	23d	1	0.81mi
9046 Cotton Field Cir Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,645	$1.11	45d	1	0.84mi
146 Wexford Way Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1498	$1,745	$1.16	23d	1	0.93mi
9717 Full Moon Cir Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,550	$1.21	15d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   price $243,820 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   If you're looking for a new home with amazing value, this one checks all the boxes - including BLINDS, REFRIGERATOR, AND WASHER & DRYER already included! Welcome to this stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a floor plan that stands out. Unlike a typical open concept, this layout provides defined spaces while still offering a natural flow throughout. Each bedroom is generously sized, giving everyone room to relax and unwind. The primary suite includes a large walk-in closet, perfect for staying organized. Step outside to the covered back patio for morning coffee, outdoor dining, or entertaining year-round. With its smart design and beautiful features, this home is one-of-a-kind—you won’t want to miss it! Photos are renderings and stock photos of a completed “Foster" floor plan.

2. 2026-04-01
   listed $243,020 Active 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   If you're looking for a new home with amazing value, this one checks all the boxes - including BLINDS, REFRIGERATOR, AND WASHER & DRYER already included! Welcome to this stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a floor plan that stands out. Unlike a typical open concept, this layout provides defined spaces while still offering a natural flow throughout. Each bedroom is generously sized, giving everyone room to relax and unwind. The primary suite includes a large walk-in closet, perfect for staying organized. Step outside to the covered back patio for morning coffee, outdoor dining, or entertaining year-round. With its smart design and beautiful features, this home is one-of-a-kind—you won’t want to miss it! Photos are renderings and stock photos of a completed “Foster" floor plan.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,658
• − Property taxes: −$3,657
• − Insurance: −$1,219
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,694
• − Management: −$1,694
• − Depreciation: −$7,093
• Taxable loss: −$7,836
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,881
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Tuscaloosa

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2909

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 134,228
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 49,420
• Household income: $62,301
• Rent vs Own: 45.6% rent · 54.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1963.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.25%
• Current HPI: 193.1929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.42%
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+0.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $243,820 WAMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $243,020 WAMLS