2012 Chestnut St · Harrisburg, PA 17104

$155,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,525 sqft · Townhouse public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1924 1,307 sqft lot $102/sqft · 36% above area Est $128k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

5 BR Semi-detached home with covered front porch. Conveniently located close to highways, public transportation and downtown Harrisburg. Property being sold 'as-is'.

Key facts

• Built 1924
• Listed 20 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 100 amp electric service; Natural gas hot water
• Home design: Semi-detached structure; Built with brick and stick-built construction; Composite roof
• Construction: Brick/mortar foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Privacy fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Single oven
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level; Two bedrooms on the second upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on an upper level and one on a lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Hot water radiator heating (natural gas); Window air conditioning units (electric)
• Interior features: Full unfinished daylight basement with interior access and rough plumbing for a bathroom; Porches; Living room and dining room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $479 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 6.6% in Harrisburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#107 in PA, #826 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Harrisburg City SD (urban): math 6% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #535 of 539 in PA (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harrisburg Hs (math 24% / reading 10%, grade F, #399 of 437 statewide, top 92%, 1,230 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 82% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 67 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,992/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 1166% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,675 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.24%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,188
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: 20.92%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1937 Zarker St	0.08mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,568 (+3%)	2mo	$125,000	$80	81
1841 Regina St	0.26mi	5/1.0	1,552 (+2%)	6mo	$107,000	$69	76
214 S 20th St	0.16mi	5/1.0	1,418 (-7%)	4mo	$165,000	$116	74
1908 Walnut St	0.38mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,458 (-4%)	5mo	$175,000	$120	66
700 N 18th St	0.54mi	5/1.0	1,559 (+2%)	6mo	$85,000	$55	62
1827 Park St	0.24mi	5/1.0	1,742 (+14%)	6mo	$137,000	$79	56
1815 Holly St	0.32mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,700 (+12%)	2mo	$142,000	$84	55
1625 Park St	0.40mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,388 (-9%)	4mo	$63,500	$46	54
88 N 17th St	0.44mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,374 (-10%)	6mo	$115,000	$84	53
1212 Derry St	0.74mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,644 (+8%)	2mo	$175,000	$106	44
1209 Chestnut St	0.73mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,620 (+6%)	4mo	$60,000	$37	44
1302 Bailey St	0.62mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,307 (-14%)	5mo	$150,000	$115	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $8,327
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $58,977
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17104

• Home prices YoY: -6.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,610/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,386

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $566	-5% $523	+0% $479	+5% $435	+10% $391
Rent	-10% $321	-5% $400	+0% $479	+5% $557	+10% $636
Rate	-1.0pp $557	-0.5pp $518	base $479	+0.5pp $439	+1.0pp $398

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 S 17th St Harrisburg, PA	5.0	2.0	2136	$1,695	$0.79	14d	1	0.37mi
66 N 17th St Harrisburg, PA	5.0	2.0	1845	$2,195	$1.19	44d	1	0.43mi
29 S 15th St Harrisburg, PA	5.0	1.0	1285	$1,895	$1.47	24d	1	0.47mi
111 N 17th St Harrisburg, PA	5.0	1.0	1800	$1,850	$1.03	14d	1	0.47mi
1610 Hunter St Harrisburg, PA	4.0	1.0	1776	$1,450	$0.82	24d	1	0.54mi
1414 Berryhill St Harrisburg, PA	5.0	2.0	1786	$1,700	$0.95	24d	1	0.69mi
1207 Market St Harrisburg, PA	4.0	1.5	1423	$1,995	$1.40	44d	1	0.74mi
2368 Canby St Harrisburg, PA	6.0	2.0	2142	$2,300	$1.07	21d	1	0.80mi
301 Chestnut St Harrisburg, PA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1437	$2,600	$1.81	44d	1	1.22mi
301 Chestnut St Harrisburg, PA	4.0	1.0–2.5	1437	$3,000	$2.09	14d	10	1.22mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $155,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-05-09
   listed $155,000 Active 364-char remark
8. 2026-05-07
   historical $155,000 364-char remark
9. 2019-10-18
   soldstatus $328,000
10. 2012-08-24
    soldstatus $31,000 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    5 BR Semi-detached home with covered front porch. Conveniently located close to highways, public transportation and downtown Harrisburg. Property being sold 'as-is'.

11. 2012-06-12
    listed $34,900 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    5 BR Semi-detached home with covered front porch. Conveniently located close to highways, public transportation and downtown Harrisburg. Property being sold 'as-is'.

12. 1996-04-10
    soldstatus $49,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,610 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,610 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,610
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $3,503
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$841
• After-tax cash flow: $4,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrisburg City SD
• NCES district ID: 4211580
• Math proficiency: 6% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $33,432
• Composite: 7.6/100
• National rank: #9945
• State rank: #535 of 539 in PA

Livability — Harrisburg

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #826

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harrisburg, PA
• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• City population: 184,296
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 18,541
• Household income: $46,510
• Rent vs Own: 54.4% rent · 45.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1166.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 44% Hispanic / Latino 29% White 19% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 21% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Polish 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.83%
• Current HPI: 340.2808
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.43%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+216.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-20 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-07 Coming Soon $155,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $328,000 Public Records
• 2012-08-24 Sold (MLS) $31,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-06-12 Listed $34,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1996-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,610 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.