228 Caribe Cir · El Paso, TX 79927

$189,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,327 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1974 6,098 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lower Valley Single-Level Brick Home Featuring 4 Bedrooms, Refrigerated Air, And Replaced Windows. Conveniently located minutes from Loop 375, I-10, within walking distance to Caribe Park, and close to many shopping and dining options. Living room opens to dining room with sliding glass door access to spacious backyard. Kitchen offers abundant cabinetry and pantry. Master bedroom includes private half bath. Other features include an updated 3/4 bath, indoor laundry room, tile and laminate flooring throughout with no carpet, ceiling fans, and storage shed.

Key facts

• Replaced windows
• Refrigerated air
• Spacious backyard

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL BRICK HOME
• REFRIGERATED AIR
• REPLACED WINDOWS
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-826/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#23 in TX, #1,375 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Ysleta ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #626 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Del Valle H S (math 48% / reading 41%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,957 students, 78% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 31% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Ysleta ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $190k implies a 444% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,041 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.93% appreciation · 5.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-14,360
• Equity at exit: $46,445

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $14,036
• Equity at exit: $49,288

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79927

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,580 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,908/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,668

Max offer price $177,745

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $39	-5% $-15	+0% $-69	+5% $-123	+10% $-176
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-131	+0% $-69	+5% $-6	+10% $56
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-21	base $-69	+0.5pp $-118	+1.0pp $-168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
743 Rodriguez Rd Unit 743 Socorro, TX	3.0	3.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	25d	1	1.27mi
9488 Landry McKee Ln Unit B El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,295	$1.08	45d	1	1.47mi
9488 Landry McKee Ln Unit A El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,195	$1.00	16d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $189,900 Pending 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,900 Active Under Contract 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,900 Active Under Contract 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $189,900 Active Under Contract 72 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,900 Active Under Contract 71 DOM
6. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Under Contract 561-char remark

   Show marketing remark (561 chars)

   Lower Valley Single-Level Brick Home Featuring 4 Bedrooms, Refrigerated Air, And Replaced Windows. Conveniently located minutes from Loop 375, I-10, within walking distance to Caribe Park, and close to many shopping and dining options. Living room opens to dining room with sliding glass door access to spacious backyard. Kitchen offers abundant cabinetry and pantry. Master bedroom includes private half bath. Other features include an updated 3/4 bath, indoor laundry room, tile and laminate flooring throughout with no carpet, ceiling fans, and storage shed.

7. 2026-04-29
   status Active 561-char remark

   Show marketing remark (561 chars)

   Lower Valley Single-Level Brick Home Featuring 4 Bedrooms, Refrigerated Air, And Replaced Windows. Conveniently located minutes from Loop 375, I-10, within walking distance to Caribe Park, and close to many shopping and dining options. Living room opens to dining room with sliding glass door access to spacious backyard. Kitchen offers abundant cabinetry and pantry. Master bedroom includes private half bath. Other features include an updated 3/4 bath, indoor laundry room, tile and laminate flooring throughout with no carpet, ceiling fans, and storage shed.

8. 2026-04-22
   historical Active Under Contract 561-char remark

   Show marketing remark (561 chars)

   Lower Valley Single-Level Brick Home Featuring 4 Bedrooms, Refrigerated Air, And Replaced Windows. Conveniently located minutes from Loop 375, I-10, within walking distance to Caribe Park, and close to many shopping and dining options. Living room opens to dining room with sliding glass door access to spacious backyard. Kitchen offers abundant cabinetry and pantry. Master bedroom includes private half bath. Other features include an updated 3/4 bath, indoor laundry room, tile and laminate flooring throughout with no carpet, ceiling fans, and storage shed.

9. 2026-03-20
   listed $189,900 Active 561-char remark

   Show marketing remark (561 chars)

   Lower Valley Single-Level Brick Home Featuring 4 Bedrooms, Refrigerated Air, And Replaced Windows. Conveniently located minutes from Loop 375, I-10, within walking distance to Caribe Park, and close to many shopping and dining options. Living room opens to dining room with sliding glass door access to spacious backyard. Kitchen offers abundant cabinetry and pantry. Master bedroom includes private half bath. Other features include an updated 3/4 bath, indoor laundry room, tile and laminate flooring throughout with no carpet, ceiling fans, and storage shed.

10. 1981-09-01
    soldstatus $34,900
11. 1981-08-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,908 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,475 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$567/yr (+$47/mo · 19.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,908
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,517
• − Management: −$1,517
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$4,089
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$981
• After-tax cash flow: $156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ysleta ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846680
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $35,826
• Composite: 25.65/100
• National rank: #7400
• State rank: #626 of 826 in TX

Livability — El Paso

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #23
• US rank: #1375

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Paso, TX
• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 630,223
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,444
• Household income: $53,652
• Rent vs Own: 19.2% rent · 80.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 732.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 39% Native American 2% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.93%
• Current HPI: 239.646
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.29%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+444.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Contingent — GEPARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — GEPARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Contingent — GEPARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $189,900 GEPARMLS
• 1981-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $34,900 Public Records
• 1981-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,908 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.