333 1st St · Manning, IA 51455

$120,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,587 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1890 0.40 ac lot $76/sqft · 25% below area Est $160k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Over 1500sf in this 3 bedroom home. Features 1 1/2 baths, eat-in kitchen, office area, vinyl windows, central AC, and an enclosed porch. Located on nearly 1/2 acre with access from both 1st St and Madison Street. Call today!

Key facts

• Central ac
• Vinyl windows
• Nearly 1/2 acre

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• OFFICE AREA
• VINYL WINDOWS
• CENTRAL AC
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• NEARLY 1/2 ACRE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#107 in IA, #2,085 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Ikm-Manning Community School District (rural): math 75% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #58 of 289 in IA (top 20%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 32 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.35%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,905
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -24.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
58 Sue St	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,547 (-2%)	12mo	$164,500	$106	84
211 2nd St	0.17mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,510 (-5%)	13mo	$72,000	$48	66
27 Ann St	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,466 (-8%)	7mo	$72,000	$49	64
310 2nd St	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,373 (-14%)	15mo	$143,000	$104	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $71,324
• Equity at exit: $108,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.11×
• Total profit: $205,347
• Equity at exit: $233,134

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51455

• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,135 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,488/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,017

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-01-21
    listed $130,000 Active 224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    Over 1500sf in this 3 bedroom home. Features 1 1/2 baths, eat-in kitchen, office area, vinyl windows, central AC, and an enclosed porch. Located on nearly 1/2 acre with access from both 1st St and Madison Street. Call today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,488 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,686 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: +$198/yr (+$16/mo · 13.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,488
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,090
• − Management: −$1,090
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$856
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$205
• After-tax cash flow: $1,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ikm-Manning Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1914880
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,285
• Composite: 64.68/100
• National rank: #524
• State rank: #58 of 289 in IA

Livability — Manning

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #2085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manning, IA
• City population: 2,303
• Population (ZIP): 2,303

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,745 people
• By 2030: 19,244 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 18,251 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 17,223 · -12.8%
• By 2075: 16,258 · -17.7%
• By 2100: 15,591 · -21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.9) · D 28.4% · R 70.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.6pp · 2024: -41.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.9 2020: R+37.8 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+6.3 2008: D+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.68%
• Current HPI: 296.99
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Listed $130,000 IAR

Property tax history

+22.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,488 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.