15827 Wilderness Trl #107 · Crosslake, MN 56442

$189,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · Manufactured · 234 Days on market

Built 2005 $158/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy your life on the Whitefish Chain at Wilderness Park! This well-kept furnished park model offers updated flooring, vaulted ceilings, and plenty of natural light. A room divider creates privacy, and the double loft provides extra sleeping space for family and friends. Your private boat slip comes with a newer aluminum dock, perfect for keeping your boat ready for a day on the water. When you're not boating, take the golf cart and relax in the heated outdoor pool or get your game on at the new tennis/pickle ball courts, volleyball, or basketball court. A 12x30 garage and additional storage shed keep all your lake gear organized. The on-site laundry facilities, shower house and guest parking add convenience for you, your family and friends. With a fish cleaning house, boat wash area, and a friendly, activity-filled community, this property offers everything you need to make the most of your spring, summer and fall and everything the Whitefish Chain has to offer.

Key facts

• Volleyball court
• Heated outdoor pool
• Basketball court

Tags

• PRIVATE BOAT SLIP
• NEWER ALUMINUM DOCK
• HEATED OUTDOOR POOL
• TENNIS PICKLE BALL COURTS
• VOLLEYBALL COURT
• BASKETBALL COURT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($124/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.4% in Crosslake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#628 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pequot Lakes Public Schools (rural): math 40% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #137 of 301 in MN (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eagle View Elementary (math 69% / reading 57%, grade B, #168 of 857 statewide, top 20%, 601 students, 39% FRL); Pequot Lakes Middle (math 30% / reading 57%, grade D, #128 of 258 statewide, top 49%, 576 students, 38% FRL); Pequot Lakes Senior High (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #189 of 471 statewide, top 44%, 620 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 20% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 420 units permitted in Crow Wing County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crow Wing County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.23%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-29,843
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-24,631
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56442

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,866 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$158
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,853

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $141	-5% $76	+0% $10	+5% $-55	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-137	-5% $-63	+0% $10	+5% $84	+10% $158
Rate	-1.0pp $106	-0.5pp $58	base $10	+0.5pp $-39	+1.0pp $-88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $158 · $1,896/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-30
   price $189,000 980-char remark

   Show marketing remark (980 chars)

   Enjoy your life on the Whitefish Chain at Wilderness Park! This well-kept furnished park model offers updated flooring, vaulted ceilings, and plenty of natural light. A room divider creates privacy, and the double loft provides extra sleeping space for family and friends. Your private boat slip comes with a newer aluminum dock, perfect for keeping your boat ready for a day on the water. When you're not boating, take the golf cart and relax in the heated outdoor pool or get your game on at the new tennis/pickle ball courts, volleyball, or basketball court. A 12x30 garage and additional storage shed keep all your lake gear organized. The on-site laundry facilities, shower house and guest parking add convenience for you, your family and friends. With a fish cleaning house, boat wash area, and a friendly, activity-filled community, this property offers everything you need to make the most of your spring, summer and fall and everything the Whitefish Chain has to offer.

2. 2025-09-29
   listed $195,000 Active 980-char remark

   Show marketing remark (980 chars)

   Enjoy your life on the Whitefish Chain at Wilderness Park! This well-kept furnished park model offers updated flooring, vaulted ceilings, and plenty of natural light. A room divider creates privacy, and the double loft provides extra sleeping space for family and friends. Your private boat slip comes with a newer aluminum dock, perfect for keeping your boat ready for a day on the water. When you're not boating, take the golf cart and relax in the heated outdoor pool or get your game on at the new tennis/pickle ball courts, volleyball, or basketball court. A 12x30 garage and additional storage shed keep all your lake gear organized. The on-site laundry facilities, shower house and guest parking add convenience for you, your family and friends. With a fish cleaning house, boat wash area, and a friendly, activity-filled community, this property offers everything you need to make the most of your spring, summer and fall and everything the Whitefish Chain has to offer.

3. 2025-05-15
   soldstatus $195,000 Sold 1167-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1167 chars)

   Welcome to your new summer retreat at Wilderness Park, nestled on the picturesque Whitefish Chain. This cute park model has updated flooring, room divider for privacy, a double loft allowing plenty of space for friends and family to visit, lots of windows giving natural light and vaulted ceilings that create an airy and spacious atmosphere. Home is being sold mostly furnished and also includes a golf cart for cruising. Your private boats slip has a new aluminum dock to keep your boat at all summer long. Spend a day out on the lake or dive into relaxation with a heated outdoor swimming pool. When not playing on the water get your game on at the tennis, volleyball or pickleball courts. For the anglers, there's a convenient fish cleaning house, and boat enthusiasts will appreciate the dedicated boat wash area. Storage is a breeze with a 12 x 30 garage and an additional storage shed for all your outdoor gear. Plus, you'll love the convenience of on-site laundry facilities. There's something for everyone here. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity to live in this vibrant community and all the amenities. Your Lake place at Wilderness Park awaits!

4. 2025-04-23
   status Pending 1167-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1167 chars)

   Welcome to your new summer retreat at Wilderness Park, nestled on the picturesque Whitefish Chain. This cute park model has updated flooring, room divider for privacy, a double loft allowing plenty of space for friends and family to visit, lots of windows giving natural light and vaulted ceilings that create an airy and spacious atmosphere. Home is being sold mostly furnished and also includes a golf cart for cruising. Your private boats slip has a new aluminum dock to keep your boat at all summer long. Spend a day out on the lake or dive into relaxation with a heated outdoor swimming pool. When not playing on the water get your game on at the tennis, volleyball or pickleball courts. For the anglers, there's a convenient fish cleaning house, and boat enthusiasts will appreciate the dedicated boat wash area. Storage is a breeze with a 12 x 30 garage and an additional storage shed for all your outdoor gear. Plus, you'll love the convenience of on-site laundry facilities. There's something for everyone here. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity to live in this vibrant community and all the amenities. Your Lake place at Wilderness Park awaits!

5. 2025-03-26
   listed $195,000 Active 1167-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1167 chars)

   Welcome to your new summer retreat at Wilderness Park, nestled on the picturesque Whitefish Chain. This cute park model has updated flooring, room divider for privacy, a double loft allowing plenty of space for friends and family to visit, lots of windows giving natural light and vaulted ceilings that create an airy and spacious atmosphere. Home is being sold mostly furnished and also includes a golf cart for cruising. Your private boats slip has a new aluminum dock to keep your boat at all summer long. Spend a day out on the lake or dive into relaxation with a heated outdoor swimming pool. When not playing on the water get your game on at the tennis, volleyball or pickleball courts. For the anglers, there's a convenient fish cleaning house, and boat enthusiasts will appreciate the dedicated boat wash area. Storage is a breeze with a 12 x 30 garage and an additional storage shed for all your outdoor gear. Plus, you'll love the convenience of on-site laundry facilities. There's something for everyone here. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity to live in this vibrant community and all the amenities. Your Lake place at Wilderness Park awaits!

6. 2017-10-20
   soldstatus $88,000 Sold
7. 2017-08-28
   status Pending
8. 2017-07-17
   listed $95,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,792
• − Management: −$1,792
• − HOA: −$1,896
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$2,948
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$707
• After-tax cash flow: $831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pequot Lakes Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2728200
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $51,513
• Composite: 41.62/100
• National rank: #3430
• State rank: #137 of 301 in MN

Livability — Crosslake

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #15018

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crosslake, MN
• City population: 2,895
• Population (ZIP): 2,895

Population outlook (Crow Wing County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,187 people
• By 2030: 64,057 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 62,470 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 59,064 · -8.0%
• By 2075: 48,738 · -24.1%
• By 2100: 36,112 · -43.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 18% Lithuanian 6% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crow Wing

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.6% · R 65.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.7pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+29.7 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.60%
• Current HPI: 218.1511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+98.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $189,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Listed $195,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-15 Sold (MLS) $195,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-23 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-26 Listed $195,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-20 Sold (MLS) $88,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-28 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-17 Listed $95,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid