37437 Conifer · Palmdale, CA 93550

$310,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,509 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1988 6,534 sqft lot Est $487k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Distressed Property

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1988

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($574/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.5% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Palmdale Elementary (suburban): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #1,147 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 408 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,706/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 4384% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $113k; list at $310k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,635 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.66%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $487,407
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37437 Conifer	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,509 (0%)	0mo	$310,000	$205	100
555 Conifer Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,509 (0%)	9mo	$510,000	$338	84
37825 E 5th St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,366 (-10%)	0mo	$460,000	$337	63
37707 Dixie Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-3%)	8mo	$465,000	$316	61
130 Mountainside Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-6%)	0mo	$505,000	$354	60
37432 Whitehall Ln	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,485 (-2%)	10mo	$465,000	$313	56
37727 Dixie Dr	0.63mi	3/3.0	1,470 (-3%)	10mo	$490,000	$333	54
206 Tahquitz Pl	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,346 (-11%)	11mo	$430,000	$319	53
438 E Avenue R5	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,301 (-14%)	6mo	$450,000	$346	52
234 Tahquitz	0.37mi	3/3.0	1,732 (+15%)	7mo	$455,000	$263	48
37388 Harrow Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,358 (-10%)	10mo	$439,000	$323	40
37398 Harrow Ct	0.71mi	3/3.0	1,663 (+10%)	10mo	$510,000	$307	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.76% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-50,516
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-53,383
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93550

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,706 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$335 /mo · $4,025/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,646

Max offer price $310,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $223	-5% $136	+0% $48	+5% $-40	+10% $-128
Rent	-10% $-166	-5% $-59	+0% $48	+5% $155	+10% $262
Rate	-1.0pp $204	-0.5pp $127	base $48	+0.5pp $-33	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
239 Katherine Ct Palmdale, CA	3.0	3.0	1386	$2,900	$2.09	0d	1	0.49mi
1138 E Avenue R7 Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1264	$2,455	$1.94	14d	1	0.67mi
37938 Palm Vista Ave Unit A Palmdale, CA	3.0	1.0	1223	$2,150	$1.76	0d	1	0.89mi
38225 9th St E Unit 1 Palmdale, CA	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,500	$1.67	0d	1	0.95mi
38232 Delacour Dr Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1328	$3,000	$2.26	0d	1	1.04mi
37414 Drexel St Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.5	1452	$2,500	$1.72	0d	1	1.04mi
1715 Boysenberry Way Palmdale, CA	4.0	3.0	1744	$2,900	$1.66	0d	1	1.27mi
38454 Sumac Ave Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	1433	$2,990	$2.09	0d	1	1.31mi
38457 Sumac Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1125	$2,900	$2.58	0d	1	1.32mi
38508 Sumac Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1125	$2,300	$2.04	0d	1	1.37mi
504 East Avenue Q3 Apt 3 Palmdale, CA	2.0	1.5	1150	$1,650	$1.43	0d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-21
   historical
2. 2026-05-21
   listed $310,000
3. 2026-04-24
   historical $2,700
4. 2026-03-24
   listed $2,700
5. 1988-05-26
   soldstatus $113,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,025 · $335/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,025 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$4,025
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,598
• − Management: −$2,598
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$4,678
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,123
• After-tax cash flow: $1,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palmdale Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629580
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,652
• Composite: 25.34/100
• National rank: #12888
• State rank: #1147 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palmdale

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #23501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmdale, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 177,644
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 80,645
• Household income: $62,078
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 4384.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Two or more races 15% Black 14% White 12% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 55% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.38%
• Current HPI: 440.8844
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.76%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+174.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $310,000 AVMLS
• 2026-04-24 Rental Removed $2,700 CRMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed for Rent $2,700 CRMLS
• 1988-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,025 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.