415 Barbour Rd · Smithfield, NC 27577

$225,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1959 0.54 ac lot Est $210k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +4.2/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great country setting! 1 acre lot with this well maintained singlewide. Great condition, convenient location and just perfect for enjoying the country life. 31'x31' detach garage/workshop with bathroom.

Key facts

• Convenient location
• Carport added
• Connected to sewer

Tags

• PRIVATE COUNTRY SETTING
• CARPORT ADDED
• CONNECTED TO COUNTY WATER
• CONNECTED TO SEWER
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (33.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.8% in Smithfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#259 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wilson'S Mills Elementary (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,175 of 1,410 statewide, top 84%, 503 students, 82% FRL); Smithfield Middle (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #385 of 475 statewide, top 81%, 501 students, 99% FRL); Smithfield-Selma High (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #454 of 535 statewide, top 85%, 1,503 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 41% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Johnston County Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 407 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $225k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,794 (33.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.64%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,760
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
414 Laurel Dr	0.25mi	2/1.5	950 (+4%)	9mo	$150,000	$158	72
103 Phillips St	0.49mi	2/1.0	983 (+8%)	5mo	$190,000	$193	60
322 Pace St	0.63mi	2/1.0	986 (+8%)	9mo	$226,450	$230	50
303 Stancil St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,017 (+12%)	1mo	$208,000	$205	49
201 Barbour Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,013 (+11%)	16mo	$250,000	$247	49
320 Pace St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	988 (+8%)	6mo	$230,000	$233	47
509 Powell St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	990 (+9%)	15mo	$236,000	$238	44
200 Pace St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+10%)	12mo	$230,000	$228	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-56,403
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-86,202
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27577

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 407
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,488 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,746/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,796

Max offer price $181,948

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-116	-5% $-180	+0% $-244	+5% $-307	+10% $-371
Rent	-10% $-361	-5% $-302	+0% $-244	+5% $-185	+10% $-126
Rate	-1.0pp $-130	-0.5pp $-186	base $-244	+0.5pp $-302	+1.0pp $-361

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
206 Britt St Smithfield, NC	3.0	1.0	1118	$1,650	$1.48	25d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   status Active
3. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-28
   price $225,000
5. 2025-12-04
   listed $245,000 Active
6. 2022-04-22
   soldstatus $125,000 Closed 202-char remark

   Show marketing remark (202 chars)

   Great country setting! 1 acre lot with this well maintained singlewide. Great condition, convenient location and just perfect for enjoying the country life. 31'x31' detach garage/workshop with bathroom.

7. 2022-03-07
   status Pending 202-char remark

   Show marketing remark (202 chars)

   Great country setting! 1 acre lot with this well maintained singlewide. Great condition, convenient location and just perfect for enjoying the country life. 31'x31' detach garage/workshop with bathroom.

8. 2022-03-02
   listed $139,900 Active 202-char remark

   Show marketing remark (202 chars)

   Great country setting! 1 acre lot with this well maintained singlewide. Great condition, convenient location and just perfect for enjoying the country life. 31'x31' detach garage/workshop with bathroom.

9. 2021-09-28
   historical
10. 2021-09-09
    price $139,900
11. 2021-08-29
    price $149,900
12. 2021-08-16
    listed $155,900 Active
13. 2019-05-10
    soldstatus $135,000
14. 2019-05-10
    soldstatus $135,000 Closed
15. 2019-05-10
    soldstatus $135,000
16. 2019-04-13
    status Pending
17. 2019-03-22
    historical Contingent
18. 2019-03-20
    listed $129,900
19. 2019-03-19
    listed $129,900 Active
20. 2016-07-06
    soldstatus $71,900 Closed
21. 2016-05-11
    historical Contingent
22. 2016-03-24
    listed $74,700 Active
23. 2013-09-30
    soldstatus $69,000
24. 2013-09-27
    soldstatus $69,000 Closed
25. 2013-07-15
    historical Contingent
26. 2013-06-27
    listed $69,000 Active
27. 2009-05-14
    soldstatus $23,000
28. 2009-05-14
    soldstatus $23,000
29. 2009-04-18
    historical
30. 2009-04-09
    soldstatus $23,000
31. 2008-09-11
    listed $27,000
32. 2008-09-11
    listed $27,000
33. 2007-05-30
    soldstatus $28,000
34. 2007-05-30
    soldstatus $28,000
35. 2007-04-10
    listed $29,900
36. 2007-04-10
    listed $29,900
37. 1999-12-01
    soldstatus $29,000
38. 1999-10-01
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,746 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$99/yr (+$8/mo · 5.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,855
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,746
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,428
• − Management: −$1,428
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$7,022
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,685
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Smithfield

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #259
• US rank: #11380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithfield, NC
• County: Johnston County · 175,441 people
• City population: 28,354
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 28,354
• Household income: $62,758
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 919.0

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 19% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.11%
• Current HPI: 232.1552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+1400.0% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — TMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $225,000 TMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $245,000 TMLS
• 2022-04-22 Sold (MLS) $125,000 TMLS
• 2022-03-07 Pending — TMLS
• 2022-03-02 Listed $139,900 TMLS
• 2021-09-28 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2021-09-09 Price Changed $139,900 TMLS
• 2021-08-29 Price Changed $149,900 TMLS
• 2021-08-16 Listed $155,900 TMLS
• 2019-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-10 Sold (MLS) $135,000 TMLS
• 2019-05-10 Sold (MLS) $135,000 Hive MLS
• 2019-04-13 Pending — TMLS
• 2019-03-22 Contingent — TMLS
• 2019-03-20 Listed $129,900 Hive MLS
• 2019-03-19 Listed $129,900 TMLS
• 2016-07-06 Sold (MLS) $71,900 TMLS
• 2016-05-11 Contingent — TMLS
• 2016-03-24 Listed $74,700 TMLS
• 2013-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-27 Sold (MLS) $69,000 TMLS
• 2013-07-15 Contingent — TMLS
• 2013-06-27 Listed $69,000 TMLS
• 2009-05-14 Sold (MLS) $23,000 AMLSNC
• 2009-05-14 Sold (MLS) $23,000 TMLS
• 2009-04-18 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2009-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records
• 2008-09-11 Listed $27,000 AMLSNC
• 2008-09-11 Listed $27,000 TMLS
• 2007-05-30 Sold (MLS) $28,000 AMLSNC
• 2007-05-30 Sold (MLS) $28,000 TMLS
• 2007-04-10 Listed $29,900 AMLSNC
• 2007-04-10 Listed $29,900 TMLS
• 1999-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 1999-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,746 · +73.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.