2031 NE Kennedy Cir #29 · Keizer, OR 97303

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 324 Days on market

Built 1984 $96/sqft · 26% above area Est $60k · 26% over ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely remodeled home in a well-maintained park. This home features a brand new roof, new siding, updated kitchen with new cabinets, countertops, and appliances, fully remodeled bathroom, and new flooring throughout. Light and bright open floor plan with modern finishes and efficient layout. Convenient location close to shopping, schools, and freeway access. Move-in ready!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New siding
• Remodeled bathroom

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW SIDING
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• NEW FLOORING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $739 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 2.9% in Keizer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#56 in OR, #1,918 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: commute D+.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kennedy Elementary School (357 students, 91% FRL); Claggett Creek Middle School (829 students, 73% FRL); Mcnary High School (2,081 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 53% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 324 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 324 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.21%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $59,668
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: 25.70%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4783 Joyce St #93	0.08mi	2/2.0	800 (+2%)	2mo	$50,000	$63	87
2013 Kennedy Cir NE #11	0.03mi	3/1.0 (+1)	774 (-1%)	16mo	$60,000	$78	78
2077 Kennedy Cir NE #69	0.05mi	2/1.0	840 (+7%)	11mo	$66,500	$79	77
2087 Kennedy Cir NE #79	0.10mi	2/1.0	728 (-7%)	21mo	$26,000	$36	66
1192 Chemawa Lp NE	0.63mi	2/1.0	800 (+2%)	8mo	$59,000	$74	60
1138 NE Chemawa Lp	0.50mi	2/1.0	840 (+7%)	19mo	$82,000	$98	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $35,992
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.59×
• Total profit: $96,489
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97303

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,493 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $196/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $739

Break-even live

Break-even rent $558

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $781	-5% $760	+0% $739	+5% $717	+10% $696
Rent	-10% $621	-5% $680	+0% $739	+5% $798	+10% $857
Rate	-1.0pp $776	-0.5pp $758	base $739	+0.5pp $719	+1.0pp $700

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1813 Drexler Ln NE Unit 5095-202 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	848	$1,400	$1.65	25d	1	0.25mi
1813 Drexler Ln NE Unit 5076-101 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	45d	1	0.25mi
4853 Verda Ln NE Keizer, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,914	$1.98	15d	10	0.33mi
4267 Tiffany Pl NE Unit 4267 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	45d	1	0.54mi
4329 Arnold St NE Unit 4329 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	45d	1	0.75mi
4325 Arnold St NE Unit 4325 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	950	$1,900	$2.00	25d	1	0.75mi
4323 Arnold St NE Unit 4323 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	25d	1	0.75mi
4327 Arnold St NE Unit 4327 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	600	$1,550	$2.58	25d	1	0.75mi
898 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	903	$1,550	$1.72	15d	3	0.94mi
2768 Claxter Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,599	$1.97	15d	3	0.96mi
589 Greenwood Dr NE Unit Greenwood Dr NE unit 37 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	45d	1	1.00mi
600 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	834	$1,399	$1.68	45d	1	1.01mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-636 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	875	$1,300	$1.49	45d	1	1.04mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-664 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	15d	1	1.04mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-614 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	875	$1,300	$1.49	15d	1	1.04mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-563 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	690	$1,099	$1.59	15d	1	1.04mi
737 Manbrin Dr NE Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	760	$1,199	$1.58	15d	1	1.05mi
737 Manbrin Dr NE Unit 124-765201 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	760	$1,199	$1.58	25d	1	1.05mi
5925 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	961	$1,600	$1.66	0d	3	1.08mi
5799 Trail Ave NE Unit 5819-304 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,695	$1.78	25d	1	1.08mi
5905 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	45d	1	1.10mi
3655 Pleasant View Dr NE Unit 3655-206 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	612	$1,350	$2.21	45d	1	1.10mi
1195 Clearview Ave NE Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	650	$1,100	$1.69	45d	3	1.10mi
5945 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	45d	1	1.11mi
4014-4040 Arleta Ave NE Unit 4018 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	602	$995	$1.65	25d	1	1.13mi
4014-4040 Arleta Ave NE Unit 4034 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	602	$995	$1.65	45d	1	1.13mi
180 Sandy Dr N Unit 196 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	875	$1,300	$1.49	25d	1	1.13mi
5955 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	25d	1	1.13mi
2540 Hyacinth St NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	665	$1,220	$1.83	15d	2	1.14mi
790 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,024	$1.93	12d	11	1.14mi
235 Cummings Ln N Unit 263 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	675	$1,095	$1.62	15d	1	1.14mi
5975 Trail Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,500	$1.63	22d	1	1.14mi
5965 Trail Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	45d	1	1.15mi
4828 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	832	$1,435	$1.72	15d	5	1.15mi
4261 Hawthorne Ave NE Unit 218 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,500	$1.58	45d	1	1.21mi
4553 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 4553-B Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	575	$995	$1.73	45d	1	1.22mi
3960 Cherry Ave NE Keizer, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,900	$2.12	15d	4	1.22mi
4245 Hawthorne Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	25d	1	1.23mi
4624 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	963	$1,495	$1.55	15d	10	1.23mi
3568 NE Cherry Glen Pl Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,495	$1.57	15d	7	1.23mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 324 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 321 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 320 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 319 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 318 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 316 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 313 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 312 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 311 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 310 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 306 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 305 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 304 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 303 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 302 DOM
16. 2026-03-18
    price $75,000 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    Completely remodeled home in a well-maintained park. This home features a brand new roof, new siding, updated kitchen with new cabinets, countertops, and appliances, fully remodeled bathroom, and new flooring throughout. Light and bright open floor plan with modern finishes and efficient layout. Convenient location close to shopping, schools, and freeway access. Move-in ready!

17. 2026-03-17
    price $75,000 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Completely remodeled home in a well-maintained park. This home features a brand new roof, new siding, updated kitchen with new cabinets, countertops, and appliances, fully remodeled bathroom, and new flooring throughout. Light and bright open floor plan with modern finishes and efficient layout. Convenient location near shopping, schools, and freeway access. Move-in ready!

18. 2026-01-21
    status Active 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    Completely remodeled home in a well-maintained park. This home features a brand new roof, new siding, updated kitchen with new cabinets, countertops, and appliances, fully remodeled bathroom, and new flooring throughout. Light and bright open floor plan with modern finishes and efficient layout. Convenient location close to shopping, schools, and freeway access. Move-in ready!

19. 2026-01-21
    status Active 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    Completely remodeled home in a well-maintained park. This home features a brand new roof, new siding, updated kitchen with new cabinets, countertops, and appliances, fully remodeled bathroom, and new flooring throughout. Light and bright open floor plan with modern finishes and efficient layout. Convenient location close to shopping, schools, and freeway access. Move-in ready!

20. 2026-01-03
    historical 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    Completely remodeled home in a well-maintained park. This home features a brand new roof, new siding, updated kitchen with new cabinets, countertops, and appliances, fully remodeled bathroom, and new flooring throughout. Light and bright open floor plan with modern finishes and efficient layout. Convenient location close to shopping, schools, and freeway access. Move-in ready!

21. 2025-10-13
    price $80,000 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    Completely remodeled home in a well-maintained park. This home features a brand new roof, new siding, updated kitchen with new cabinets, countertops, and appliances, fully remodeled bathroom, and new flooring throughout. Light and bright open floor plan with modern finishes and efficient layout. Convenient location close to shopping, schools, and freeway access. Move-in ready!

22. 2025-10-12
    price $80,000 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Completely remodeled home in a well-maintained park. This home features a brand new roof, new siding, updated kitchen with new cabinets, countertops, and appliances, fully remodeled bathroom, and new flooring throughout. Light and bright open floor plan with modern finishes and efficient layout. Convenient location near shopping, schools, and freeway access. Move-in ready!

23. 2025-07-14
    listed $85,000 Active 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Completely remodeled home in a well-maintained park. This home features a brand new roof, new siding, updated kitchen with new cabinets, countertops, and appliances, fully remodeled bathroom, and new flooring throughout. Light and bright open floor plan with modern finishes and efficient layout. Convenient location near shopping, schools, and freeway access. Move-in ready!

24. 2025-07-14
    listed $85,000 Active 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Completely remodeled home in a well-maintained park. This home features a brand new roof, new siding, updated kitchen with new cabinets, countertops, and appliances, fully remodeled bathroom, and new flooring throughout. Light and bright open floor plan with modern finishes and efficient layout. Convenient location near shopping, schools, and freeway access. Move-in ready!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $196 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $728 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$531/yr (+$44/mo · 270.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$196
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,434
• − Management: −$1,434
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $8,097
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,943
• After-tax cash flow: $6,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Keizer

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #1918

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keizer, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 40,659
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 40,659
• Household income: $84,871
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.84%
• Current HPI: 292.0057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.74%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $75,000 WVMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $75,000 RMLS
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2026-01-03 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $80,000 WVMLS
• 2025-10-12 Price Changed $80,000 RMLS
• 2025-07-14 Listed $85,000 RMLS
• 2025-07-14 Listed $85,000 WVMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2017): $196 · +54.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.