321 3rd St · Moorhead, IA 51558

$27,937

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,559 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 307 Days on market

Built 1920 10,454 sqft lot ↓ 56% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this wonderful opportunity to own a nice sized two story home on a corner lot in a quaint rural town. Very nice woodwork. The home needs some updating but with the right attention this could be a very nice home. The property has a detached two car garage. Property is being Sold As is. No repairs will be made. Call for a private showing.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $839 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#843 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• West Harrison Community School District (rural): math 55% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #281 of 330 in IA (top 85%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Monona County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($193 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Monona County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 307 days — a 12% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (45%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $24,584 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 307 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 42.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 128.67%
• DSCR: 6.73
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.58×
• Total profit: $67,115
• Equity at exit: $23,487

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.87×
• Total profit: $155,402
• Equity at exit: $48,964

Cash invested: $7,822 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51558

• Home prices YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,380 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$147
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,120/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $839

Break-even live

Break-even rent $318

Max offer price $27,937

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $855	-5% $847	+0% $839	+5% $831	+10% $823
Rent	-10% $730	-5% $784	+0% $839	+5% $893	+10% $948
Rate	-1.0pp $853	-0.5pp $846	base $839	+0.5pp $832	+1.0pp $824

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,984
• Closing costs: $838
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2025-11-21
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-31
   price $27,937
3. 2025-10-01
   price $30,477
4. 2025-08-31
   price $33,017
5. 2025-08-01
   price $35,557
6. 2025-07-02
   price $38,096
7. 2025-06-02
   status Active
8. 2025-06-02
   price $40,636
9. 2025-04-25
   status Pending
10. 2025-03-11
    price $43,176
11. 2025-02-10
    price $45,716
12. 2025-01-10
    price $48,255
13. 2024-12-11
    listed $50,795 Active
14. 2010-10-27
    soldstatus $63,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,561
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,565
• − Property taxes: −$1,120
• − Insurance: −$140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,325
• − Management: −$1,325
• − Depreciation: −$813
• Taxable income: $10,274
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,466
• After-tax cash flow: $7,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Harrison Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1930960
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,566
• Composite: 52.63/100
• National rank: #3352
• State rank: #281 of 330 in IA

Livability — Moorhead

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #19381

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moorhead, IA
• Population (ZIP): 680

Population outlook (Monona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,622 people
• By 2030: 8,419 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 7,994 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 7,586 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 7,204 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 6,612 · -23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 13%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monona

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.4) · D 26.8% · R 72.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.4 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+41.4 2012: R+9.7 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.17%
• Current HPI: 171.245
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-55.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-21 Pending — IAR
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $27,937 IAR
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $30,477 IAR
• 2025-08-31 Price Changed $33,017 IAR
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $35,557 IAR
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $38,096 IAR
• 2025-06-02 Relisted — IAR
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $40,636 IAR
• 2025-04-25 Pending — IAR
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $43,176 IAR
• 2025-02-10 Price Changed $45,716 IAR
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $48,255 IAR
• 2024-12-11 Listed $50,795 IAR
• 2010-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,120 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.