15231 Evanston St · Detroit, MI 48224

$139,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,967 sqft · Townhouse public records · 255 Days on market

Built 1930 3,920 sqft lot $71/sqft · 33% above area Est $210k · 33% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 254 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 492 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.50%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,638
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -33.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,254
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $6,884
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48224

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 492
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,476 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $765/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,083

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $389	-5% $350	+0% $310	+5% $271	+10% $231
Rent	-10% $194	-5% $252	+0% $310	+5% $369	+10% $427
Rate	-1.0pp $381	-0.5pp $346	base $310	+0.5pp $274	+1.0pp $237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9400 Lakepointe St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,150	$0.88	6d	1	0.08mi
9168 Wayburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1274	$1,300	$1.02	21d	1	0.11mi
9755 Wayburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,400	$0.93	4d	1	0.28mi
5791 Somerset Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,400	$0.84	18d	1	0.29mi
5747 Lakepointe St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1316	$1,473	$1.12	45d	1	0.30mi
15857 Evanston St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1232	$1,250	$1.01	6d	1	0.37mi
10724 Whitehill St Detroit, MI	3.0	3.0	1425	$1,550	$1.09	19d	1	0.52mi
5574 Buckingham Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1430	$1,450	$1.01	5d	1	0.57mi
10813 Whitehill St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1392	$1,350	$0.97	18d	1	0.58mi
5966 Eastlawn St Unit NA Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1366	$1,500	$1.10	25d	1	0.66mi
5267 Haverhill St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1458	$1,300	$0.89	18d	1	0.69mi
5267 Haverhill St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1458	$1,300	$0.89	18d	1	0.69mi
13395 Maiden St Detroit, MI	5.0	2.0	1750	$1,600	$0.91	25d	1	0.71mi
9635 Everts St Detroit, MI	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	45d	1	0.74mi
10030 Bishop St Detroit, MI	5.0	2.0	1721	$1,200	$0.70	18d	1	0.90mi
9142 Yorkshire Rd Detroit, MI	5.0	1.5	1450	$1,700	$1.17	0d	1	0.93mi
9171 Bishop St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1508	$1,300	$0.86	45d	1	0.95mi
9241 Boleyn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,350	$1.00	45d	1	1.05mi
9313 Harvard Rd Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1329	$1,200	$0.90	18d	1	1.09mi
4251 Wayburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1326	$1,650	$1.24	45d	1	1.16mi
6225 Oldtown St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1330	$1,199	$0.90	18d	1	1.23mi
11911 Lansdowne St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1350	$1,400	$1.04	45d	1	1.26mi
14201 Mayfield St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.5	1296	$1,250	$0.96	45d	1	1.42mi
3651 Buckingham Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,300	$0.98	18d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 255 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 252 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 251 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 249 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 247 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 246 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 243 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 242 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 241 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 238 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 237 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 235 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 234 DOM
14. 2026-01-08
    price $139,900
15. 2026-01-07
    price $139,900
16. 2025-12-13
    price $149,900
17. 2025-12-12
    price $149,900
18. 2025-10-08
    listed $180,000 Active
19. 2025-10-08
    listed $180,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $765 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,460 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$695/yr (+$58/mo · 90.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,710
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$765
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,417
• − Management: −$1,417
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $1,505
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$361
• After-tax cash flow: $3,361/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 39,668
• Household income: $44,856
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2515.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 88% White 8% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -226.38%
• Current HPI: 161.886
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-22.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $139,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $139,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $149,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $149,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-08 Listed $180,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-08 Listed $180,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $765 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.