10368 Tower Hill Dr · Stockton, CA 95219

$579,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,185 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 2024 2,185 sqft lot $265/sqft · 11% below area Est $650k · 11% under $161/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into contemporary comfort at this beautifully designed two‑story home in the desirable Waterways at Westlake community. Built in 2024, this residence blends modern style with everyday functionality, offering an open‑concept layout perfect for both entertaining and relaxed living. The main level welcomes you with a bright, airy Great Room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and a sleek, well‑appointed kitchen. Large windows and patio access create an effortless indoor‑outdoor connection ideal for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. A full bedroom and bathroom on the first floor provide flexibility for guests, multigenerational living, or a private home office. Upstairs, the spa

Key facts

• Two story home
• Open concept layout
• 2,185 sq ft lot

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• BRIGHT AIRY GREAT ROOM
• WELL APPOINTED KITCHEN
• INDOOR OUTDOOR CONNECTION
• FULL BEDROOM AND BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $579k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (51.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (43.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (51.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $62k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$100k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($510k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,347 (51.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.47%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $650,064
• List price: $579,000
• Delta: -10.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10024 Baltisan Ln	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,205 (+1%)	2mo	$589,000	$267	77
10055 Luciana Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,179 (-0%)	2mo	$545,000	$250	72
6918 Mauna Loa Way	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,205 (+1%)	3mo	$585,000	$265	70
7200 Sambucus Way	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,077 (-5%)	8mo	$635,000	$306	68
10922 Admiral Cove Way	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,870 (-14%)	0mo	$505,000	$270	60
7261 Robins Cove Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,870 (-14%)	7mo	$525,000	$281	60
10309 Ultar Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,463 (+13%)	0mo	$635,000	$258	57
5953 Pebblestone Way	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,129 (-3%)	8mo	$524,500	$246	55
6707 Oakum Way	0.59mi	4/2.5	1,969 (-10%)	4mo	$535,000	$272	51
6819 Mount Elbrus Way	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,380 (+9%)	12mo	$642,000	$270	49
6730 Mount Elbrus Way	0.63mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,381 (+9%)	4mo	$570,000	$239	48
10922 Shadowport Ct	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,483 (+14%)	5mo	$580,000	$234	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $212,074
• Equity at exit: $521,609

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.43×
• Total profit: $717,504
• Equity at exit: $1,124,870

Cash invested: $162,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 14.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,256 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,036
• Tax from tax record: −$819 /mo · $9,824/yr
• Insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$161
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$684
• Net cashflow: $-1,685

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,389

Max offer price $281,347

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,357	-5% $-1,521	+0% $-1,685	+5% $-1,849	+10% $-2,013
Rent	-10% $-1,942	-5% $-1,814	+0% $-1,685	+5% $-1,556	+10% $-1,428
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,393	-0.5pp $-1,538	base $-1,685	+0.5pp $-1,835	+1.0pp $-1,988

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $144,750
• Closing costs: $17,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10962 Admiral Cove Way Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2403	$3,200	$1.33	15d	1	0.29mi
7017 Overlook Way Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2403	$3,095	$1.29	44d	1	0.35mi
10100 Downy Birch Dr Stockton, CA	5.0	3.0	2639	$3,500	$1.33	22d	1	0.35mi
6831 Oakum Way Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2318	$3,100	$1.34	44d	1	0.46mi
10831 Larboard Ct Stockton, CA	5.0	3.0	2160	$3,950	$1.83	44d	1	0.56mi
10210 Copco Ln Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	2252	$3,100	$1.38	44d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $161 · $1,932/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $579,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $579,000 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $579,000 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $579,000 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $579,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $579,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $579,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $579,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $579,000 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $579,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $579,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $579,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $579,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $579,000 Active 138 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,824 · $819/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,824 · $819/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,433
• − Property taxes: −$9,824
• − Insurance: −$2,895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,126
• − Management: −$3,126
• − HOA: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$16,844
• Taxable loss: −$31,106
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,465
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+188.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,824 · +726.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.