TBD De Moye Ln · Aubrey, TX 76227

$399,900

33 bd · 16.5 ba · — sqft · MultiFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 1.63 ac lot ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 11 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

A Shovel-Ready Multifamily Parcel. An entitled 1.63-acre multifamily development site situated in one of North Texas's fastest-growing suburban markets. This parcel — Lot 6, Block A of the De Moye-Magnolia Addition — arrives with City-approved Planned Development zoning designating it for multifamily residential use, entitling a developer to build up to 16 dwelling units without additional zoning action. Updated civil plans included in sale. Begin permitting and construction immediately upon closing. At $399,900 for 16 approved units, land cost per door is $25K - among the lowest available for entitled multifamily in Denton County. All 16 units are approved as 2-bedroom dwelling

Key facts

• 16 dwelling units
• 1.63 acre lot
• Parking

Tags

• 1.63-ACRE DEVELOPMENT SITE
• MULTIFAMILY RESIDENTIAL USE
• 16 DWELLING UNITS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property subtype: Multi Family; Will not subdivide; Subdivision: DeMoye Magnolia Addition; Parcel number R982282
• Financial info: Listing accepted financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA; No gross annual income/expenses reported for the multi-unit property
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space (assigned, open); No garage or carport spaces specified
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Residential income property (multi-family); Two buildings; 16 total units; Proposed year built 2026
• Construction: Composition roof; Construction materials: See remarks; Foundation: Other; Proposed construction (2026)
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Lot is level and acreage (1.63 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 32 total bedrooms
• Flooring: See remarks
• Bathrooms: 16 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Two levels; Interior features: Other; Flooring: See remarks
• Laundry & utility: No cooling; natural gas heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 11 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15k ($176k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($22k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $394k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 50.3% vs local median 3.4% in Aubrey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#332 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1885 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $22,058/mo this rent would consume 238% of the median local household income ($111k/yr) (locally 959% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $393,901 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 50.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 157.13%
• DSCR: 7.99
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.19×
• Total profit: $804,732
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.78×
• Total profit: $1,654,750
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1885
• Price-to-rent: 16.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $22,058 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$500 /mo · $5,998/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,632
• Net cashflow: $14,662

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,498

Max offer price $399,900

Occupancy floor 29%

11-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 11× units	3	—	$22,055
Total (11 units)			$22,058

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,900 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,900 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,900 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,900 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,900 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 687-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $399,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $264,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$5,998
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$21,176
• − Management: −$21,176
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable income: $180,313
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$43,275
• After-tax cash flow: $132,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aubrey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,154
• Composite: 46.21/100
• National rank: #2492
• State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aubrey

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #7241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aubrey, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 62,127
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-42.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $399,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $479,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $499,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $549,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $599,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $699,000 NTREIS