16225 N Cave Creek Rd #85 · Phoenix, AZ 85032

$69,998

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 832 sqft · Manufactured · 179 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition $84/sqft · 60% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Villa Carme 55+ Adult gated community! Be charmed by this delightful 2-bedroom manufactured home with its own Extended covered carport/patio! Inside, vaulted ceilings and wood-look floors create an inviting vibe, while the cozy living room practically calls you to kick back and relax. The kitchen brings the flavor with chocolate-stained staggered cabinets, generous counter space, built in microwave, Gas stove and all the essentials to fuel your inner chef. The primary bedroom even spoils you with its own private bathroom. And the community? Oh, it's packed with goodies such as a refreshing pool, an indoor spa for unwinding, a fitness center to keep you moving, and plenty more fun waiting to be discovered. Come see it for yourself and picture the easygoing lifestyle waiting for you! Across from the clubhouse.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Refreshing pool
• Covered carport

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• COVERED CARPORT
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• WOOD-LOOK FLOORS
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• REFRESHING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $61,598 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.23%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $43,648
• List price: $69,998
• Delta: 60.37%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16225 N Cave Creek Rd #32	0.04mi	2/2.0	840 (+1%)	22mo	$79,900	$95	79
16225 N Cave Creek Rd #106	0.04mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	12mo	$25,000	$35	62
2618 E Sandra Ter	0.26mi	3/1.5 (+1)	820 (-1%)	21mo	$170,000	$207	61
16225 N Cave Creek Rd #9	0.04mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	19mo	$9,000	$13	56
2644 E Kelton Ln	0.41mi	2/1.8	932 (+12%)	14mo	$225,900	$242	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $14,534
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $36,995
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85032

• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,196 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $69,998

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $509	-5% $485	+0% $461	+5% $437	+10% $413
Rent	-10% $367	-5% $414	+0% $461	+5% $508	+10% $556
Rate	-1.0pp $496	-0.5pp $479	base $461	+0.5pp $443	+1.0pp $424

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 312 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$856	$1.56	23d	1	0.11mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$829	$1.18	25d	1	0.11mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Apt 310 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	25d	1	0.11mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 112 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$856	$1.56	25d	1	0.11mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,159	$1.66	25d	1	0.11mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	23d	1	0.11mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	575	$942	$1.64	5d	6	0.11mi
16033 N 25th St Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	9d	1	0.19mi
16621 N 25th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	570	$899	$1.58	9d	1	0.28mi
2616 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 2624-2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$1,095	$1.33	25d	1	0.28mi
2616 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 2624-4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$999	$1.21	6d	1	0.28mi
2432 E Tracy Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,375	$1.38	19d	1	0.30mi
16627 N 25th St Unit 23 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	765	$1,145	$1.50	25d	1	0.34mi
16437 N 31st St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	687	$1,049	$1.53	3d	4	0.36mi
16801 N 26th St Apt 17 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	25d	1	0.40mi
2201 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1068	$2,405	$2.25	25d	1	0.48mi
2802 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	929	$950	$1.02	25d	1	0.48mi
2807 E Paradise Ln Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1124	$1,475	$1.31	25d	1	0.48mi
15425 N 25th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	677	$1,149	$1.70	9d	5	0.49mi
2807 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$865	$0.96	25d	1	0.50mi
15651 N 27th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,300	$1.48	25d	1	0.51mi
15601 N 27th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	894	$1,422	$1.59	6d	2	0.51mi
2807 E Marconi Ave Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	967	$975	$1.01	0d	1	0.52mi
2826 E Le Marche Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	725	$1,000	$1.38	6d	1	0.52mi
2819 E Marconi Ave Unit 201 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$950	$1.06	25d	1	0.53mi
2814 E Kathleen Rd #102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	25d	1	0.53mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,295	$1.39	18d	1	0.53mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,295	$1.39	16d	1	0.54mi
15601 N 27th St #18 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	888	$1,495	$1.68	15d	1	0.56mi
2718 E Beck Ln Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$1,295	$1.36	25d	1	0.56mi
2838 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	780	$1,200	$1.54	9d	1	0.56mi
2821 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$900	$0.81	25d	1	0.57mi
2821 E Kathleen Rd Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1106	$900	$0.81	25d	1	0.57mi
2822 E Kathleen Rd Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	6d	1	0.57mi
2726 E Beck Ln Unit 03 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	916	$1,295	$1.41	25d	1	0.57mi
2844 E Marconi Ave Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1123	$1,550	$1.38	23d	1	0.58mi
2837 E Marconi Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	25d	1	0.58mi
2837 E Marconi Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	25d	1	0.58mi
2725 E Beck Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	916	$1,395	$1.52	16d	1	0.60mi
2615 E Greenway Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	692	$1,250	$1.81	18d	4	0.60mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,998 Active 179 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $69,998 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $69,998 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $69,998 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $69,998 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $69,998 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-02-07
   price $74,999 819-char remark

   Show marketing remark (819 chars)

   Villa Carme 55+ Adult gated community! Be charmed by this delightful 2-bedroom manufactured home with its own Extended covered carport/patio! Inside, vaulted ceilings and wood-look floors create an inviting vibe, while the cozy living room practically calls you to kick back and relax. The kitchen brings the flavor with chocolate-stained staggered cabinets, generous counter space, built in microwave, Gas stove and all the essentials to fuel your inner chef. The primary bedroom even spoils you with its own private bathroom. And the community? Oh, it's packed with goodies such as a refreshing pool, an indoor spa for unwinding, a fitness center to keep you moving, and plenty more fun waiting to be discovered. Come see it for yourself and picture the easygoing lifestyle waiting for you! Across from the clubhouse.

8. 2025-12-10
   listed $82,500 Active 819-char remark

   Show marketing remark (819 chars)

   Villa Carme 55+ Adult gated community! Be charmed by this delightful 2-bedroom manufactured home with its own Extended covered carport/patio! Inside, vaulted ceilings and wood-look floors create an inviting vibe, while the cozy living room practically calls you to kick back and relax. The kitchen brings the flavor with chocolate-stained staggered cabinets, generous counter space, built in microwave, Gas stove and all the essentials to fuel your inner chef. The primary bedroom even spoils you with its own private bathroom. And the community? Oh, it's packed with goodies such as a refreshing pool, an indoor spa for unwinding, a fitness center to keep you moving, and plenty more fun waiting to be discovered. Come see it for yourself and picture the easygoing lifestyle waiting for you! Across from the clubhouse.

9. 2023-03-31
   soldstatus $70,000 Closed 346-char remark

   Show marketing remark (346 chars)

   Gated** Beautiful Location!! Really nice newer 2020 Built... 55+ Adult Community -Amenities include Resort-like Pool, Spa, Shuffleboard, Clubhouse/Exercise Room....Come and see this newer home at this great price! Fun Events like Bingo, Dinners, Coffee & Donuts and Special Holiday Events! Pet-friendly, easy access to shopping and freeways

10. 2023-03-07
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Gated** Beautiful Location!! Really nice newer 2020 Built... 55+ Adult Community -Amenities include Resort-like Pool, Spa, Shuffleboard, Clubhouse/Exercise Room....Come and see this newer home at this great price! Fun Events like Bingo, Dinners, Coffee & Donuts and Special Holiday Events! Pet-friendly, easy access to shopping and freeways

11. 2023-03-04
    listed $72,950 Active 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Gated** Beautiful Location!! Really nice newer 2020 Built... 55+ Adult Community -Amenities include Resort-like Pool, Spa, Shuffleboard, Clubhouse/Exercise Room....Come and see this newer home at this great price! Fun Events like Bingo, Dinners, Coffee & Donuts and Special Holiday Events! Pet-friendly, easy access to shopping and freeways

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,148
• − Management: −$1,148
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $4,698
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,127
• After-tax cash flow: $4,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with modern updates and a good curb appeal. It's ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy the community amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Resale replace blinds — improves light control and aesthetics
• Both install smart home devices — increases home's marketability and convenience

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale replace blinds — improves light control and aesthetics ↑
• Both install smart home devices — increases home's marketability and convenience ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 70,839
• Household income: $78,643
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2887.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 17% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 21% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.65%
• Current HPI: 339.4181
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.46%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $74,999 ARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $82,500 ARMLS
• 2023-03-31 Sold (MLS) $70,000 ARMLS
• 2023-03-07 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2023-03-04 Listed $72,950 ARMLS