2306 Rockcastle Rd · Cadiz, KY 42211

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Other · 506 Days on market

1.00 ac lot $118/sqft · 20% below area Est $236k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 or 4 bedroom, 2 bath home close to the lake. Many recent updates including new metal roof, 3 mini split heat pumps, flooring paint , sidewalks and much more. Ready to move in condition

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Recent updates
• Sidewalks

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• MINI SPLIT HEAT PUMPS
• RECENT UPDATES
• SIDEWALKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.6% in Cadiz — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#354 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Trigg County (town): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #90 of 165 in KY (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Trigg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trigg County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 506 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $189k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 506 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.73%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,888
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -19.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-11,819
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $13,692
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42211

• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $666/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,425

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $404	-5% $350	+0% $297	+5% $243	+10% $190
Rent	-10% $154	-5% $226	+0% $297	+5% $368	+10% $439
Rate	-1.0pp $392	-0.5pp $345	base $297	+0.5pp $248	+1.0pp $198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 506 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,000 Active 504 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 503 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 502 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 501 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 500 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 498 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,000 Active 497 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 494 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 493 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 492 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,000 Active 489 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 488 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 487 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 486 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 485 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,000 Active 484 DOM
18. 2026-05-01
    status Active 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    3 or 4 bedroom, 2 bath home close to the lake. Many recent updates including new metal roof, 3 mini split heat pumps, flooring paint , sidewalks and much more. Ready to move in condition

19. 2025-09-09
    price $189,000 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    3 or 4 bedroom, 2 bath home close to the lake. Many recent updates including new metal roof, 3 mini split heat pumps, flooring paint , sidewalks and much more. Ready to move in condition

20. 2025-01-29
    listed $199,000 Active 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    3 or 4 bedroom, 2 bath home close to the lake. Many recent updates including new metal roof, 3 mini split heat pumps, flooring paint , sidewalks and much more. Ready to move in condition

21. 2023-02-22
    soldstatus $75,000 Closed
22. 2023-02-14
    status Pending
23. 2023-01-29
    price $98,500
24. 2022-12-27
    status Active
25. 2022-12-10
    status Pending
26. 2022-10-24
    status Active
27. 2022-08-24
    status Pending
28. 2022-01-31
    listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $666 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,625 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$960/yr (+$80/mo · 144.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$666
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $448
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$107
• After-tax cash flow: $3,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trigg County
• NCES district ID: 2105580
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $44,636
• Composite: 26.87/100
• National rank: #7100
• State rank: #90 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cadiz

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #354
• US rank: #16772

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,912

Population outlook (Trigg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,071 people
• By 2030: 13,950 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 13,575 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 13,065 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 11,990 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 10,802 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trigg

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.4) · D 23.2% · R 75.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.6pp toward R · 2008: -29.8pp · 2024: -52.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.4 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+49.6 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+29.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.15%
• Current HPI: 130.8351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+89.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — WKRMLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $189,000 WKRMLS
• 2025-01-29 Listed $199,000 WKRMLS
• 2023-02-22 Sold (MLS) $75,000 WKRMLS
• 2023-02-14 Pending — WKRMLS
• 2023-01-29 Price Changed $98,500 WKRMLS
• 2022-12-27 Relisted — WKRMLS
• 2022-12-10 Pending — WKRMLS
• 2022-10-24 Relisted — WKRMLS
• 2022-08-24 Pending — WKRMLS
• 2022-01-31 Listed $100,000 WKRMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $666 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.