903 Marsac St · Bay City, MI 48708

$119,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1870 4,792 sqft lot Est $130k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home to the Heart of Bay City! Just steps away from the mouthwatering aroma of Roma's famous pizza, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers comfort, convenience, and character. Features include central air, a spacious first-floor primary bedroom with a large walk-in closet, and a fully fenced backyard filled with beautiful perennials that return year after year. A detached garage provides additional storage and parking space. Enjoy being close to everything Bay City has to offer while relaxing in a home that feels both inviting and practical. Don't miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1870

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1.5 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Natural gas heat fuel; Public water; Public sanitary sewer
• Home design: Residential 2-story home; Built in 1870; Below-grade area approximately 700 (basement)
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Basement foundation; Original construction year 1870
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen approximately 15 x 12
• Bedrooms: Main-level primary bedroom (15 x 14); Two upper-level bedrooms (15 x 14; 9' wide)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Basement present
• Laundry & utility: Basement for utility/laundry space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $195 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $120k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.96%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
808 19th St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,439 (-1%)	2mo	$95,700	$67	64
1707 S Monroe St	0.52mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,390 (-4%)	2mo	$151,000	$109	62
1617 Broadway St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,267 (-13%)	7mo	$70,000	$55	62
1611 S Grant St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-2%)	2mo	$112,500	$79	60
1615 S Jackson St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,511 (+4%)	4mo	$179,900	$119	59
1423 Stanton St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,310 (-10%)	2mo	$113,650	$87	58
1808 S Farragut St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+3%)	1mo	$210,000	$140	56
513 31st St	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,662 (+15%)	6mo	$95,000	$57	49
907 Michigan Ave	0.42mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,252 (-14%)	3mo	$150,000	$120	48
1206 S Farragut St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,331 (-8%)	7mo	$131,000	$98	46
1507 S Van Buren St	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,566 (+8%)	6mo	$141,000	$90	44
710 18th St	0.73mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,334 (-8%)	6mo	$100,000	$75	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-7,023
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $9,857
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,254 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,407/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,008

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
600 18th St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	43d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   status $119,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active Under Contract 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active Under Contract 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active Under Contract 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $119,900 Active Under Contract 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on marketlisting id $119,900 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 589-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $119,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,407 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,627 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$220/yr (+$18/mo · 15.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,050
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,407
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,204
• − Management: −$1,204
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $431
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$103
• After-tax cash flow: $2,234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+105.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Coming Soon $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-31 Sold (MLS) $53,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-12-01 Listed $58,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,407 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.