19 E Shady Oaks Ln Unit A · Miramar Beach, FL 32459

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · Townhouse public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2014 1,060 sqft lot Est $290k · at est. $357/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

!!MODEL HOME!! All of the best upgrades. SS refrigerator included with the other appliances. Beautiful 5 inch hardwood floors throughout 1st floor 20x20 ceramic tile in all the wet areas. Added crown molding. Granite countertops. Extra lighting. Long term leases allowed and rent for $1500-$1700/mo. Close to Walmart, Publix, Grand Boulevard, and Silver Sands Outlet. Recreation to include White Sandy Beaches,4 State Parks, Sandestin Resort, IMAX Theater, and Big Kahunas Water Park

Key facts

• $357 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2014

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Subdivision: WATER OAKS T/H

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Electric service; Public sewer; Phone service available; TV cable available
• Home design: Townhome; Two stories; Built in 2014
• Construction: Siding (cement fiberboard/hardboard); Built in 2014
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 20' x 53'; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (master suite located on the second floor)
• Bathrooms: Three bathrooms total: two full baths and one half bath; Master bathroom with double vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double pane windows; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Recommended offer: $276k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 1.1% in Miramar Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#569 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Van R. Butler Elementary School (math 77% / reading 69%, grade A, #271 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 1,013 students, 30% FRL); South Walton High School (math 61% / reading 73%, grade B, #69 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,235 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 48% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 1585 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $285k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $276,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.72%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $289,984
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 E Shady Oaks Ln Unit C	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,551 (-2%)	2mo	$287,000	$185	95
20 E Shady Oaks Dr Unit B	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,576 (0%)	16mo	$290,000	$184	83
72 Southhaven Cir	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,712 (+9%)	1mo	$305,005	$178	67
68 South Haven Circle Cir #8	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,712 (+9%)	2mo	$312,000	$182	66
86 Southhaven Cir #14	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,712 (+9%)	10mo	$324,000	$189	59
128 South Haven Cir Unit 26	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,712 (+9%)	13mo	$302,000	$176	59
90 Southhaven Cir #15	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,712 (+9%)	11mo	$271,800	$159	58
13 Corte Pino Unit 109-A	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-6%)	18mo	$350,000	$237	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-47,220
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-63,911
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32459

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 1585
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,905 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,517/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$357
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,760

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
240 Water Oaks Loop Santa Rosa Beach, FL	4.0	2.5	1908	$3,250	$1.70	21d	1	0.20mi
360 Orleans Ave SANTA RSA BCH, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,469	$2.53	21d	15	0.44mi
105 Sugar Sands Dr Santa Rosa Beach, FL	4.0	3.5	2172	$4,600	$2.12	13d	1	0.77mi
42 Via Largo Santa Rosa Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1278	$2,495	$1.95	13d	1	0.93mi
169 Ocean Walk Ln SANTA RSA BCH, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$2,810	$2.70	21d	23	0.93mi
161 Blue Palm Ave , FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1213	$2,575	$2.12	13d	15	1.28mi
28 Magical Pl Santa Rosa Beach, FL	3.0	3.5	1628	$3,350	$2.06	21d	1	1.35mi
133 Nuit Ln Santa Rosa Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1329	$2,600	$1.96	21d	1	1.42mi
77 Exuma Way Santa Rosa Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$2,760	$2.45	13d	11	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $357 · $4,284/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 411-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   price $285,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,500 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,500 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,500 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,500 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,500 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,500 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,500 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $299,500 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,500 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,500 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,500 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,500 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,500 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,500 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,500 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,500 Active 25 DOM
19. 2026-05-05
    listed $299,500 Active
20. 2015-04-29
    soldstatus $179,900 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    !!MODEL HOME!! All of the best upgrades. SS refrigerator included with the other appliances. Beautiful 5 inch hardwood floors throughout 1st floor 20x20 ceramic tile in all the wet areas. Added crown molding. Granite countertops. Extra lighting. Long term leases allowed and rent for $1500-$1700/mo. Close to Walmart, Publix, Grand Boulevard, and Silver Sands Outlet. Recreation to include White Sandy Beaches,4 State Parks, Sandestin Resort, IMAX Theater, and Big Kahunas Water Park

21. 2015-04-29
    soldstatus $179,900 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    !!MODEL HOME!! All of the best upgrades. SS refrigerator included with the other appliances. Beautiful 5 inch hardwood floors throughout 1st floor 20x20 ceramic tile in all the wet areas. Added crown molding. Granite countertops. Extra lighting. Long term leases allowed and rent for $1500-$1700/mo. Close to Walmart, Publix, Grand Boulevard, and Silver Sands Outlet. Recreation to include White Sandy Beaches,4 State Parks, Sandestin Resort, IMAX Theater, and Big Kahunas Water Park

22. 2015-03-11
    listed $179,900 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    !!MODEL HOME!! All of the best upgrades. SS refrigerator included with the other appliances. Beautiful 5 inch hardwood floors throughout 1st floor 20x20 ceramic tile in all the wet areas. Added crown molding. Granite countertops. Extra lighting. Long term leases allowed and rent for $1500-$1700/mo. Close to Walmart, Publix, Grand Boulevard, and Silver Sands Outlet. Recreation to include White Sandy Beaches,4 State Parks, Sandestin Resort, IMAX Theater, and Big Kahunas Water Park

23. 2008-07-25
    soldstatus $2,650,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,517 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,517 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,517
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,788
• − Management: −$2,788
• − HOA: −$4,284
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$3,202
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$769
• After-tax cash flow: $2,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — Miramar Beach

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #569
• US rank: #10855

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• City population: 8,486
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,522
• Household income: $107,821
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 633.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.08%
• Current HPI: 368.4091
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.45%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-88.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $299,500 ECAR
• 2015-04-29 Sold (MLS) $179,900 NAMLS
• 2015-04-29 Sold (MLS) $179,900 ECAR
• 2015-03-11 Listed $179,900 NAMLS
• 2008-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $2,650,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,517 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.