412 Cowboy Ln · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$290,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,818 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2022 9,190 sqft lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

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Key facts

• 9,190 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public maintained road access
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Brick construction; Entry on main level; Composition roof
• Construction: Built on slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Covered patio; Fenced yard; Paved public street access

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Pantry; Soaking tub; Walk-in closet(s); Gas/electric fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-472 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (28.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bennett El (math 62% / reading 64%, grade B, #300 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 876 students, 43% FRL); Frenship Middle (math 46% / reading 50%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 833 students, 47% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,676 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.97%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $128,059
• Equity at exit: $261,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.94×
• Total profit: $401,051
• Equity at exit: $563,406

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,198 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$566 /mo · $6,797/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,795

Max offer price $206,676

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-308	-5% $-390	+0% $-472	+5% $-554	+10% $-636
Rent	-10% $-645	-5% $-558	+0% $-472	+5% $-385	+10% $-298
Rate	-1.0pp $-326	-0.5pp $-398	base $-472	+0.5pp $-547	+1.0pp $-623

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
405 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,450	$1.31	15d	1	0.10mi
328 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,450	$1.20	15d	1	0.12mi
209 Sooner St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1951	$1,875	$0.96	45d	1	0.27mi
127 Brooke Blvd Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.5	1714	$1,757	$1.03	15d	2	0.67mi
811 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,595	$1.05	45d	1	0.98mi
906 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$2,000	$1.16	45d	1	0.98mi
1019 Donald Preston Dr Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,275	$0.91	45d	1	1.08mi
1019 Donald Preston Dr Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,275	$0.91	23d	1	1.08mi
132 Calvin Dr Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1652	$2,300	$1.39	15d	1	1.16mi
215 14th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	15d	1	1.17mi
1224 Donald Preston Dr Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,550	$1.11	45d	1	1.19mi
1216 Donald Preston Dr Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	45d	1	1.19mi
611 E 14th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,725	$1.33	45d	1	1.23mi
1313 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	15d	1	1.24mi
816 N 4th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,100	$1.20	45d	1	1.26mi
7811 86th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1710	$2,025	$1.18	23d	1	1.38mi
1503 Good Prairie Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,450	$1.13	23d	1	1.43mi
7811 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$2,195	$1.13	23d	1	1.44mi
7805 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,150	$1.14	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $290,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   remarks 659-char remark
3. 2026-06-13
   listed $290,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,797 · $566/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,797 · $566/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$6,797
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,110
• − Management: −$2,110
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$10,773
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,585
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $290,000 LARMLS
• 2023-01-11 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2022-12-20 Pending — LARMLS
• 2022-10-12 Listed $298,900 LARMLS

Property tax history

+43.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,797 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.