Newlin Plan · Seguin, TX 78155

$204,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily · 685 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 684 days

🏗️ New construction. The $204,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $221,144.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Vogel El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 401 students, 74% FRL); Briesemeister Middle (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 725 students, 77% FRL); Seguin H S (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,101 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1603 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 41d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 685 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,480 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 685 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.14%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,144
• List price: $204,999
• Delta: -7.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
508 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	1mo	$203,999	$138	86
528 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	3mo	$205,999	$140	84
536 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	2mo	$220,999	$150	84
917 Riviera	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-14%)	1mo	$199,495	$158	73
473 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,634 (+11%)	1mo	$230,999	$141	70
516 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-14%)	2mo	$192,999	$153	61
512 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	2mo	$211,999	$127	59
540 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-14%)	4mo	$189,999	$151	59
520 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	2mo	$235,499	$141	58
805 Margay	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+6%)	3mo	$249,990	$159	54
832 Nodding Nixie	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+7%)	2mo	$267,500	$170	53
763 Armadillo	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,262 (-14%)	3mo	$229,900	$182	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-44,556
• Equity at exit: $32,973

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-54,653
• Equity at exit: $19,120

Cash invested: $61,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 57 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.6 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $264,990 ($178/sqft)
• Median days on market: 138 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -15.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1603
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,795 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,160
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$276 /mo · $3,317/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,935

Max offer price $205,171

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $-34	+0% $-110	+5% $-187	+10% $-263
Rent	-10% $-252	-5% $-181	+0% $-110	+5% $-39	+10% $31
Rate	-1.0pp $1	-0.5pp $-54	base $-110	+0.5pp $-168	+1.0pp $-226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,286
• Closing costs: $6,634
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
805 Riviera Ct Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,795	$0.96	73d	1	0.15mi
805 Riviera Ct Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,750	$0.93	21d	1	0.15mi
809 Riviera Ct Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,700	$1.15	38d	1	0.18mi
401 Alta Vista Ter Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,995	$1.20	73d	1	0.20mi
528 Wolf Crest Blvd Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,597	$1.08	40d	1	0.26mi
829 Margay Loop Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,775	$1.13	93d	1	0.62mi
829 Margay Loop Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,775	$1.13	67d	1	0.62mi
1060 Pronghorn Trl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,650	$1.17	93d	1	0.63mi
1051 Country Club Dr #28 Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1032	$1,300	$1.26	52d	1	0.66mi
1051 Country Club Dr Seguin, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	990	$1,400	$1.41	93d	3	0.69mi
912 Cinnamon Teal Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,895	$1.06	39d	1	0.73mi
771 Monarch Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,740	$1.08	51d	1	0.74mi
800 Nodding Nixie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1781	$1,745	$0.98	93d	1	0.76mi
837 Indigo Way Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1611	$1,895	$1.18	16d	1	0.79mi
837 Indigo Way Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1611	$1,900	$1.18	24d	1	0.79mi
723 Armadillo Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1781	$1,875	$1.05	11d	1	0.80mi
821 Indigo Way Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$1,895	$1.03	17d	1	0.81mi
728 Armadillo Dr New Berlin, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,745	$1.08	9d	1	0.81mi
728 Armadillo Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,745	$1.08	46d	1	0.81mi
812 Indigo Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1574	$1,800	$1.14	9d	1	0.84mi
348 Desert Willow Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1831	$1,899	$1.04	9d	1	0.85mi
817 Pronghorn Trl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,695	$1.08	68d	1	0.86mi
541 Chaco Loop Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,800	$1.43	37d	1	0.95mi
541 Chaco Loop Unit NA Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,800	$1.43	13d	1	0.96mi
210 Cottage St Seguin, TX	3.0	3.0	1750	$1,999	$1.14	93d	1	1.39mi
1112 Renee St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,395	$1.02	38d	1	1.40mi
313 Nagel St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1010	$1,400	$1.39	53d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $204,999 Active 685 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $204,999 Active 683 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $204,999 Active 682 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $204,999 Active 681 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $204,999 Active 680 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $204,999 Active 677 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $204,999 Active 676 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $204,999 Active 675 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $204,999 Active 674 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $204,999 Active 672 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $204,999 Active 670 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $204,999 Active 669 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $204,999 Active 668 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $204,999 Active 667 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    pricedays on market $204,999 Active 666 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $204,499 Active 664 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $204,499 Active 663 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $204,499 Active 662 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $204,499 Active 661 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $204,499 Active 660 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $204,499 Active 659 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $204,499 Active 658 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $204,499 Active 657 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $204,499 Active 656 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $204,499 Active 655 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $203,499 Active 653 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    price $203,499 Active 652 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $202,499 Active 652 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    pricedays on market $202,499 Active 651 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    price $201,499 Active 649 DOM
31. 2026-07-03
    days on market $200,999 Active 649 DOM
32. 2026-07-02
    days on market $200,999 Active 648 DOM
33. 2026-07-01
    days on market $200,999 Active 647 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    days on market $200,999 Active 646 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $200,999 Active 645 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $200,999 Active 644 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $200,999 Active 643 DOM
38. 2026-06-26
    days on market $200,999 Active 642 DOM
39. 2026-06-24
    days on market $200,999 Active 640 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $200,999 Active 638 DOM
41. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $200,999 Active 637 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $200,499 Active 634 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $200,499 Active 633 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $200,499 Active 632 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $200,499 Active 629 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $200,499 Active 625 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,499 Active 624 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $200,499 Active 623 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,999 Active 620 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 619 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,317
• − Insurance: −$1,106
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,723
• − Management: −$1,723
• − Depreciation: −$6,433
• Taxable loss: −$5,152
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,236
• After-tax cash flow: $-88/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,370–$22,110 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a modern kitchen and bathroom, and the exterior siding is in good condition. The home is move-in ready and has a good curb appeal. The highest-ROI updates that would raise its resale or rental value include painting the exterior siding, upgrading the kitchen appliances, and adding smart home features to the HVAC system.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding to a more modern color — Updating the exterior color can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances to more energy-efficient models — Modern appliances can improve the home's energy efficiency and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Adding smart home features to the HVAC system — Smart home features can improve energy efficiency and comfort for tenants, making the home more attractive for rental purposes. ↑
• Both Installing a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for both buyers and tenants, making the home more attractive for both purposes. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 29/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Vogel El F TX #1,995/4,322 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Briesemeister Middle F TX #1,445/1,662 Nat'l #11,801/14,009 High Seguin H S F TX #1,011/1,632 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 196,854 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $199,499 Zillow
• 2025-11-23 Price Changed $198,999 Zillow
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $196,999 Zillow
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $206,999 Zillow
• 2025-08-23 Price Changed $216,999 Zillow
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $231,999 Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-07 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-12-01 Price Changed $219,999 Zillow
• 2024-11-27 Price Changed $222,999 Zillow
• 2024-09-26 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-09-26 Price Changed $225,999 Zillow
• 2024-03-19 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-03-14 Listed $259,999 Zillow