511 Mystic Dr Unit E · Greensboro, NC 27406

$83,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 703 sqft · Condo public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1990 $143/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all Investors!!! Please see agent only remarks for more details.

Key facts

• $143 HOA
• Built 1990
• Listed 105 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Apple Ridge Condos; Directions: Randleman Road, right on Mystic
• HOA & community: Association: Greensboro; Monthly association fee of $143

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Condominium; Stick/site built construction; One story; Built in 1990; Existing structure
• Construction: Masonite siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Public maintained road; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric forced-air heating; Electric heating fuel
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Deadbolt(s); Primary bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer connection; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.8% in Greensboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#12 in NC, #1,335 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Guilford County Schools (urban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #99 of 178 in NC (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,843 units permitted in Guilford County in 2024 (2,397 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $574 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guilford County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,530 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.42%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-3,846
• Equity at exit: $12,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $6,868
• Equity at exit: $7,176

Cash invested: $23,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27406

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,039 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $538/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$143
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $832

Max offer price $83,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,750
• Closing costs: $2,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
515 Mystic Dr Unit A Greensboro, NC	2.0	1.0	703	$899	$1.28	14d	1	0.04mi
502 Mystic Dr Unit B Greensboro, NC	2.0	1.0	703	$950	$1.35	23d	1	0.09mi
3527 Lynhaven Dr Unit A Greensboro, NC	2.0	1.0	667	$1,400	$2.10	23d	1	0.39mi
629 Creek Ridge Rd Unit 645-B Greensboro, NC	1.0	1.0	600	$925	$1.54	14d	1	0.43mi
629 Creek Ridge Rd Unit 647-F Greensboro, NC	1.0	1.0	600	$925	$1.54	23d	1	0.43mi
629 Creek Ridge Rd Unit 639-C Greensboro, NC	1.0	1.0	600	$1,100	$1.83	23d	1	0.43mi
8 Covey Ln Greensboro, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,162	$1.25	14d	10	0.64mi
9 Summertree Ln Greensboro, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0	802	$995	$1.24	14d	5	1.08mi
402 E Montcastle Dr Greensboro, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,125	$1.22	23d	10	1.11mi
1015 Glendale Dr Greensboro, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0	730	$1,103	$1.51	21d	4	1.37mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $143 · $1,716/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $83,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $83,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $83,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $83,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $83,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $83,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $83,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $83,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $83,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $83,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $83,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $83,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $83,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $83,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    price $83,000
16. 2026-04-01
    price $85,000
17. 2026-03-05
    listed $89,500 Active
18. 2025-10-29
    price $85,000
19. 2025-10-21
    price $87,500
20. 2025-10-02
    price $88,900
21. 2025-09-19
    price $89,900
22. 2025-09-03
    price $90,500
23. 2025-08-26
    price $92,000
24. 2025-02-25
    price $89,000
25. 2025-01-30
    price $92,500
26. 2023-09-13
    soldstatus $82,500 Closed
27. 2023-09-13
    soldstatus $82,500
28. 2023-08-19
    status Pending
29. 2023-08-15
    historical Due Diligence Period
30. 2023-08-11
    listed $85,000 Active
31. 2007-03-30
    soldstatus $52,000
32. 1993-09-01
    soldstatus $41,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $538 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $681 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$143/yr (+$12/mo · 26.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,649
• − Property taxes: −$538
• − Insurance: −$415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$997
• − Management: −$997
• − HOA: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$2,415
• Taxable income: $740
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$178
• After-tax cash flow: $1,779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guilford County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701920
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,315
• Composite: 35.78/100
• National rank: #4842
• State rank: #99 of 178 in NC

Livability — Greensboro

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #1335

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Greensboro, NC
• County: Guilford County · 487,190 people
• City population: 329,421
• Metro: Greensboro-High Point, NC
• Population (ZIP): 60,651
• Household income: $59,563
• Rent vs Own: 44.4% rent · 55.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2462.0

Population outlook (Guilford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 584,596 people
• By 2030: 616,851 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 678,451 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 734,788 · +25.7%
• By 2075: 862,985 · +47.6%
• By 2100: 948,704 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 52% White 26% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guilford

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.2% · R 38.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 18.4pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+20.0 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.70%
• Current HPI: 243.2612
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Metro: Greensboro-High Point, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+102.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $83,000 Triad MLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $85,000 Triad MLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $89,500 Triad MLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $85,000 Triad MLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $87,500 Triad MLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $88,900 Triad MLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $89,900 Triad MLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $90,500 Triad MLS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $92,000 Triad MLS
• 2025-02-25 Price Changed $89,000 Triad MLS
• 2025-01-30 Price Changed $92,500 Triad MLS
• 2023-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records
• 2023-09-13 Sold (MLS) $82,500 Triad MLS
• 2023-08-19 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2023-08-15 Contingent — Triad MLS
• 2023-08-11 Listed $85,000 Triad MLS
• 2007-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1993-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $538 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.