86 Water St · Lyons, NY 14489

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1850 4,356 sqft lot $66/sqft · 31% below area Est $124k · 31% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Are you looking for an affordable place to live for yourself, or are you looking for an investment property??? This 2 bedroom, 1 full bath home is conveniently located in the downtown area. It is currently tenant occupied with long term tenants of over 5 years. Tenants wish to remain there offering a great opportunity for an investor. This home has a newer furnace and the roof is approximately 15 years old offering many years of life left. Enclosed front and rear porches for added space and a small, low maintenance yard. Come take a look!!!

Key facts

• Newer furnace
• Low maintenance yard
• 4,356 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEWER FURNACE
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story property; Existing (resale) property; Shingle roof
• Construction: Composite siding; Poured and stone foundation; Built previously (existing structure)
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 38 x 114

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Country kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (includes living areas and bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Country kitchen; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $85,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$123,958) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $668 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#270 in NY, #4,307 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Lyons Central School District (town): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #549 of 590 in NY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $85k implies a 750% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.67%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,958
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -31.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 Elm St	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,356 (+6%)	3mo	$149,000	$110	70
47 Montezuma St	0.44mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,264 (-1%)	4mo	$75,000	$59	67
38 Shuler St	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,260 (-2%)	15mo	$79,000	$63	60
4 Rice St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,196 (-7%)	5mo	$70,000	$59	59
171 Canal St	0.60mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,240 (-3%)	4mo	$89,900	$73	56
3 Maple St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,226 (-4%)	9mo	$110,000	$90	54
46 Shuler St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,128 (-12%)	6mo	$84,500	$75	49
46 Dickerson St	0.56mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,348 (+5%)	11mo	$183,000	$136	49
3 Scott St	0.40mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,392 (+9%)	15mo	$125,500	$90	48
21 Dickerson St	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,125 (-12%)	12mo	$190,000	$169	45
14 Hillcrest Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,340 (+5%)	12mo	$196,000	$146	43
21 Culver St	0.74mi	2/1.5	1,408 (+10%)	15mo	$115,000	$82	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $88,898
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.8%
• Equity multiple: 10.60×
• Total profit: $228,472
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14489

• Home prices YoY: 14.2%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,090/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $668

Break-even live

Break-even rent $830

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $716	-5% $692	+0% $668	+5% $644	+10% $620
Rent	-10% $536	-5% $602	+0% $668	+5% $734	+10% $800
Rate	-1.0pp $711	-0.5pp $690	base $668	+0.5pp $646	+1.0pp $623

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
947 Sohn Alloway Rd Unit 24 Lyons, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,675	$1.52	25d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 28 DOM
17. 2026-05-03
    listed $85,000 Active 546-char remark
18. 2026-03-25
    historical
19. 2026-03-21
    historical
20. 2026-03-21
    historical
21. 2026-01-08
    price $68,500
22. 2025-11-06
    price $70,000
23. 2025-10-20
    listed $75,000 Active
24. 2025-02-21
    historical
25. 2024-12-23
    listed $82,000 Active
26. 2011-03-17
    soldstatus $10,000
27. 2011-03-16
    soldstatus $10,000
28. 2010-12-28
    listed $19,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,090 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,090 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,090
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $7,135
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,712
• After-tax cash flow: $6,302/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lyons Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618030
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -28.00%
• Median HH income: $43,076
• Composite: 31.73/100
• National rank: #5909
• State rank: #549 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lyons

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #4307

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyons, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,016

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.65%
• Current HPI: 311.1445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+327.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Listed $85,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-25 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-21 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-21 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $68,500 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $70,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $75,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-02-21 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2024-12-23 Listed $82,000 UNYREIS
• 2011-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-16 Sold (MLS) $10,000 UNYREIS
• 2010-12-28 Listed $19,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,090 · +20.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.