624 Avenue A NE · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$269,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,553 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1937 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Now's your chance! Buyer fall out of contract and this home is ready for you! Experience the perfect blend of "Old Florida" soul and modern peace of mind in the heart of the desirable NE downtown grid! This enchanting 1937 vintage gem at 624 Avenue A NE has undergone a comprehensive mechanical evolution over the last 6 months, making it one of the most insurance-friendly historic homes on the market. Major 2025/2026 Upgrades Include: NEW ROOF (6 months old) NEW AC SYSTEM for maximum efficiency ELECTRICAL UPDATES including a brand-new panel PLUMBING UPDATES with modernized piping throughout Inside, you’ll find stunning origina

Key facts

• Plumbing updates
• Electrical updates
• New ac system

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW AC SYSTEM
• ELECTRICAL UPDATES
• PLUMBING UPDATES
• DETACHED IN-LAW SUITE
• WALKING TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential - Single Family Residence; Living area approx. 1,913 (per public records); Building area total approx. 2,461; Lot size approx. 0.31 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre); Unfurnished; Homestead exemption indicated; No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No HOA; No CDD

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water source: None listed
• Home design: Single Family Residence; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built on crawlspace
• Exterior features: French doors; Paved road access; City limits; Oversized lot (approx. 0.31 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood; Crawlspace foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Attic; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fred G. Garner Elementary School (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 901 students, 62% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 491 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $269k implies a 390% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,300 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.22%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-54,268
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-65,979
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,903 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,438/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,079

Max offer price $244,408

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-63	+0% $-139	+5% $-215	+10% $-291
Rent	-10% $-290	-5% $-214	+0% $-139	+5% $-64	+10% $11
Rate	-1.0pp $-4	-0.5pp $-71	base $-139	+0.5pp $-209	+1.0pp $-280

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
407 Avenue A SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,700	$1.51	25d	1	0.28mi
332 Avenue D SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,800	$1.65	4d	1	0.50mi
601 2nd St SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1072	$1,195	$1.11	4d	1	0.66mi
240 2nd St SW #201 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1241	$1,725	$1.39	25d	1	0.69mi
200 Avenue C SW Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	851	$1,950	$2.29	4d	12	0.74mi
1200 6th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,585	$1.29	16d	1	0.75mi
207 S Lake Silver Dr NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,399	$1.25	25d	1	0.82mi
265 East St Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$2,250	$2.97	4d	41	0.84mi
200 Avenue K SE Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1095	$1,735	$1.58	4d	45	0.99mi
1331 11th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,190	$1.82	25d	1	1.01mi
701 Bates Ave SW Unit 203 Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	4d	1	1.08mi
701 Bates Ave SW Unit 102 Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	25d	1	1.08mi
251 Krenson Bay Loop Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,250	$1.22	25d	1	1.09mi
904 15th St NE Unit 1520445P Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	1732	$4,909	$2.83	4d	1	1.12mi
760 Avenue C SW Unit 104 Winter Haven, FL	3.0	3.0	1523	$1,750	$1.15	25d	1	1.16mi
1550 11th St NE Unit G3 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$1,325	$1.15	16d	1	1.21mi
1705 3rd St NW Unit A Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,650	$1.12	25d	1	1.33mi
1581 Lemon Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,176	$1.19	22d	1	1.34mi
2429 Twin Lake View Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,350	$1.26	16d	1	1.38mi
700 Mirror Ter NW #705 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,500	$1.26	4d	1	1.39mi
1300 S Lake Howard Dr Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1464	$2,100	$1.43	12d	20	1.41mi
850 17th Ter NE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	1206	$1,520	$1.26	4d	1	1.42mi
1830 2nd St NW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,600	$1.49	25d	1	1.45mi
919 S AVE SE Unit 1325030P Eloise, FL	3.0	2.0	1722	$2,954	$1.72	4d	1	1.45mi
1500 Grey Eagle Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,050	$1.11	16d	1	1.46mi
2007 9th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,750	$1.41	25d	1	1.48mi
1314 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,940	$1.19	16d	1	1.49mi
1314 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,890	$1.16	4d	1	1.49mi
1225 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,890	$1.16	4d	1	1.50mi
1225 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,940	$1.19	16d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   status Active
3. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-13
   listed $269,000 Active
5. 1997-02-03
   soldstatus $54,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,438 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,233 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$795/yr (+$66/mo · 55.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$1,438
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,827
• − Management: −$1,827
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$6,494
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,559
• After-tax cash flow: $-112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+390.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $269,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $54,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2014): $1,438 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.