5532 Nielan St Sts Unit A/B · Houston, TX 77028

$459,000

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,600 sqft · MultiFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 7,164 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Take advantage of this exceptional opportunity to customize a brand-new duplex designed for modern living & strong investment potential. Each beautifully crafted ONE-STORY unit offers 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, an open-concept layout, private yard, & dual backyard access points for added convenience. Upscale finishes include quartz countertops, shaker-style cabinetry, champagne-toned fixtures, stainless steel appliances, designer chandeliers, oversized shower tile, & durable luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The fully fenced backyard provides a secure and private space ideal for pets, entertaining, or outdoor relaxation. Located with easy access to Hwy 69 and L

Key facts

• 7,164 sq ft lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Green energy features: radiant attic barrier, HVAC efficiency, insulation, energy-efficient lighting, energy-efficient windows
• Financial info:
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security: Fire alarm
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Water available
• Home design: Residential income property; New construction (2026)
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof; Built in 2026; Builder: 3 Point Group
• Exterior features: Private entrance; Partial fencing; Fire alarm

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Two-unit property (total units: 2)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (total)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Quartz counters; Ceiling fans; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $459,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $457,600.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $459k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($123/yr) — positive. Per door: $5/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $402k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $402k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elmore El (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #4,152 of 4,322 statewide, top 96%, 532 students, 99% FRL); Key Middle (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,569 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 615 students, 100% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,016/mo this rent would consume 126% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $128k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $401,600 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $457,600
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7921 Bonaire St Unit A and B	0.29mi	6/2.0	2,581 (-1%)	17mo	$465,000	$180	63
7830 Booker Street A-b	0.46mi	6/—	2,524 (-3%)	15mo	$447,500	$177	61
8406 Tate St Unit A and B	0.48mi	6/2.0	2,529 (-3%)	14mo	$445,000	$176	53
6112 Fairchild St	0.53mi	6/2.0	2,452 (-6%)	14mo	$412,000	$168	46
7709 St Louis St	0.70mi	6/2.0	2,545 (-2%)	18mo	$405,500	$159	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.25% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $100,843
• Equity at exit: $266,153

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $281,412
• Equity at exit: $465,100

Cash invested: $128,128 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77028

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 19.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,016 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,400
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$572 /mo · $6,864/yr
• Insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$843
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,003

Max offer price $457,600

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $327	-5% $168	+0% $10	+5% $-148	+10% $-306
Rent	-10% $-307	-5% $-148	+0% $10	+5% $169	+10% $328
Rate	-1.0pp $241	-0.5pp $127	base $10	+0.5pp $-108	+1.0pp $-229

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$4,016
Total (2 units)			$4,016

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,400
• Closing costs: $13,728
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $459,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   remarks 687-char remark
3. 2026-06-04
   listed $459,000 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,633
• − Property taxes: −$6,864
• − Insurance: −$2,288
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,855
• − Management: −$3,855
• − Depreciation: −$13,312
• Taxable loss: −$7,615
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,828
• After-tax cash flow: $1,951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern, move-in-ready duplex offers spacious living areas, upscale finishes, and a fully fenced backyard. It is in excellent condition with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and could increase rental value
• Both Install smart thermostat — Saves energy and could increase rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and could increase rental value ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — Saves energy and could increase rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,109
• Household income: $38,357
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1177.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 15% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 38%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.25%
• Current HPI: 267.7798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.55%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $459,000 HARMLS