4931 Mercedes Ln · Houston, TX 77022

$180,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,523 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 155 Days on market

Built 1954 3,288 sqft lot $118/sqft · 10% below area Est $199k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming and beautifully maintained home that blends comfort, style, and functionality. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 1 well-appointed bathroom, this residence offers a warm, inviting layout that feels like home the moment you walk in. Inside, you’ll find tile flooring throughout, creating a clean, cohesive look that’s both stylish and easy to maintain. The home has been lovingly cared for and is truly move-in ready. The expansive backyard is a standout feature, offering endless possibilities for entertaining, gardening, or simply enjoying outdoor living. While there’s no garage, the generous lot provides flexibility and room to make the space your own. Perfectly for the one looking at a well-kept home with great outdoor space, this one is a must-see.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Tile flooring
• Expansive backyard

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD
• GENEROUS LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (15.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $151k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 285 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,431 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.31%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,936
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -9.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
602 Gammon Dr	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,475 (-3%)	0mo	$65,000	$44	82
330 Spell St	0.24mi	2/1.0	1,396 (-8%)	6mo	$185,000	$133	70
510 Victoria Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,384 (-9%)	6mo	$280,000	$202	62
707 Apogee Trl	0.48mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,592 (+4%)	2mo	$300,000	$188	57
247 E Janisch Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,340 (-12%)	1mo	$289,000	$216	56
714 E Rogers St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,403 (-8%)	11mo	$590,000	$421	52
4423 Harvard St	0.73mi	2/1.5	1,570 (+3%)	9mo	$365,000	$232	51
11 Wellford St Unit D	0.60mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,556 (+2%)	10mo	$338,990	$218	49
107 Knightsbridge Park Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,554 (+2%)	10mo	$325,000	$209	46
127 E Thornton Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,703 (+12%)	8mo	$325,000	$191	37
107 W Whitney St Unit E	0.69mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,736 (+14%)	1mo	$314,900	$181	33
4310 Busiek St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,332 (-12%)	9mo	$139,900	$105	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-36,207
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-31,057
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77022

• Home prices YoY: -33.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,962 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,192/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,166

Max offer price $151,431

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
450 E Rogers St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	911	$1,338	$1.47	2d	14	0.35mi
148 Knightsbridge Park Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1580	$2,500	$1.58	43d	1	0.58mi
4605 Lavatera St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1686	$2,265	$1.34	22d	1	0.73mi
316 Thornton Rd Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1828	$2,500	$1.37	43d	1	0.73mi
4813 Martin Oaks Ln Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	1972	$2,200	$1.12	43d	1	0.79mi
5342 Donovan Gardens Ln Unit 1521013P Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1743	$2,985	$1.71	7d	1	0.86mi
8502 N Main St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,685	$1.11	21d	1	0.90mi
221 W 44th St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	43d	1	0.93mi
4132 Europa St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1259	$1,430	$1.14	13d	1	0.95mi
622 Janisch Rd Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	1785	$2,650	$1.48	43d	1	1.02mi
619 Thornton Oaks Ln Unit Labs Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1657	$2,200	$1.33	7d	1	1.02mi
4840 N Shepherd Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$2,057	$2.36	3d	21	1.05mi
221 Oriole St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$2,083	$1.43	24d	1	1.11mi
611 E 39th St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1326	$2,099	$1.58	43d	1	1.13mi
641 W Crosstimbers St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	866	$2,171	$2.51	2d	38	1.17mi
538 E 38th St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1521	$2,300	$1.51	43d	1	1.21mi
717 Lehman St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1084	$2,362	$2.18	4d	263	1.22mi
717 Janisch Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1821	$2,750	$1.51	24d	1	1.24mi
717 Janisch Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1821	$2,750	$1.51	43d	1	1.24mi
139 Van Molan St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1056	$925	$0.88	43d	1	1.29mi
313 Sunnyside St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$1,071	$1.16	43d	16	1.32mi
313 Sunnyside St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	880	$1,301	$1.48	2d	24	1.32mi
910 1/2 Oak St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,995	$1.31	43d	1	1.33mi
3514 Ajax St Unit 1047956P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1689	$3,114	$1.84	7d	1	1.34mi
5115 Royal Heath Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,175	$1.36	24d	1	1.36mi
9910 Clark Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1695	$1,900	$1.12	7d	1	1.37mi
714 W Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1296	$1,094	$0.84	43d	1	1.39mi
209 Clark Meadows Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1620	$2,399	$1.48	13d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $180,000 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $192,900 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $192,900 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $192,900 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $192,900 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $192,900 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-04-25
    price $192,999 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Welcome to this charming and beautifully maintained home that blends comfort, style, and functionality. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 1 well-appointed bathroom, this residence offers a warm, inviting layout that feels like home the moment you walk in. Inside, you’ll find tile flooring throughout, creating a clean, cohesive look that’s both stylish and easy to maintain. The home has been lovingly cared for and is truly move-in ready. The expansive backyard is a standout feature, offering endless possibilities for entertaining, gardening, or simply enjoying outdoor living. While there’s no garage, the generous lot provides flexibility and room to make the space your own. Perfectly for the one looking at a well-kept home with great outdoor space, this one is a must-see.

13. 2026-01-14
    listed $199,999 Active 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Welcome to this charming and beautifully maintained home that blends comfort, style, and functionality. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 1 well-appointed bathroom, this residence offers a warm, inviting layout that feels like home the moment you walk in. Inside, you’ll find tile flooring throughout, creating a clean, cohesive look that’s both stylish and easy to maintain. The home has been lovingly cared for and is truly move-in ready. The expansive backyard is a standout feature, offering endless possibilities for entertaining, gardening, or simply enjoying outdoor living. While there’s no garage, the generous lot provides flexibility and room to make the space your own. Perfectly for the one looking at a well-kept home with great outdoor space, this one is a must-see.

14. 2020-11-03
    historical
15. 2020-10-27
    price $149,999
16. 2020-10-16
    status Active
17. 2020-10-09
    status Pending
18. 2020-09-22
    status Option Pending
19. 2020-09-16
    price $155,900
20. 2020-08-04
    listed $158,000 Active
21. 2013-09-23
    historical
22. 2013-09-22
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2013-09-20
    soldstatus
24. 2013-08-27
    status Pending
25. 2013-07-27
    status Pending, Continue to Show
26. 2013-07-17
    status Option Pending
27. 2013-05-16
    status Active
28. 2013-05-04
    status Pending
29. 2013-04-25
    listed $62,000 Active
30. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,192 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,294 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$102/yr (+$9/mo · 3.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$3,192
• − Insurance: −$6,018
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,883
• − Management: −$1,883
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$4,756
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,141
• After-tax cash flow: $-799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,805
• Household income: $52,739
• Rent vs Own: 49.6% rent · 50.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1354.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 24% Black 19% White 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 40% English-only · Spanish 59%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.13%
• Current HPI: 304.3745
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.47%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+211.3% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $192,999 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $199,999 HARMLS
• 2020-11-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-10-27 Price Changed $149,999 HARMLS
• 2020-10-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-10-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-09-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-09-16 Price Changed $155,900 HARMLS
• 2020-08-04 Listed $158,000 HARMLS
• 2013-09-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-09-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-08-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-07-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-07-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-05-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2013-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-04-25 Listed $62,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,192 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.