31103 Cherokee Rose Ln · Pinehurst, TX 77354

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Manufactured public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1995 0.51 ac lot $94/sqft · at area comps Est $183k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come out and see this nice double wide in Hazy Hollow. It sits on 1/2 acre of land and is on a slab that was prepared for the Double-Wide before it was purchased. The home is skirted all the way around and has a huge deck on the back side and a covered gazebo in the rear. The home also has an out building and a workable office that is in the rear both need to have some siding replaced at this time. The property also, has a covered area for your vehicles. Also, has a new aerobic system that was just installed this month. If you are looking for a clean property that is ready for a quick close come and check us out. NO MUD and NO HOA.

Key facts

• 1/2 acre
• Covered gazebo
• Out building

Tags

• 1/2 ACRE
• HUGE DECK
• COVERED GAZEBO
• OUT BUILDING
• WORKABLE OFFICE
• COVERED AREA FOR VEHICLES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $485 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.54%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,152
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -1.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $123,440
• Equity at exit: $162,158

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $329,300
• Equity at exit: $349,700

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,605/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,459

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30906 Sweetwater Cir Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2154	$1,949	$0.90	22d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Pending 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Pending 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Pending 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   status $180,000 Pending 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   price $180,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $210,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $210,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-04-10
    listed $210,000 Active 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    Come out and see this nice double wide in Hazy Hollow. It sits on 1/2 acre of land and is on a slab that was prepared for the Double-Wide before it was purchased. The home is skirted all the way around and has a huge deck on the back side and a covered gazebo in the rear. The home also has an out building and a workable office that is in the rear both need to have some siding replaced at this time. The property also, has a covered area for your vehicles. Also, has a new aerobic system that was just installed this month. If you are looking for a clean property that is ready for a quick close come and check us out. NO MUD and NO HOA.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,605 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,294 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,689/yr (+$141/mo · 105.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,605
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $3,069
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$737
• After-tax cash flow: $5,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinehurst, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $210,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,605 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.