5012 Southside Dr · Louisville, KY 40214

$265,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,022 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2021 7,545 sqft lot Est $257k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Completely rebuilt since 2022, this beautifully updated home offers 5 spacious bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms. Enjoy peace of mind with a newer roof and HVAC system, along with a modern kitchen featuring updated cabinetry and appliances. Bathrooms have been tastefully renovated, and all bedrooms offer generous space. The home is vacant, easy to show, and truly move-in ready—perfect for buyers seeking comfort, style, and convenience.

Key facts

• 7,545 sq ft lot
• Built 2021
• Listed 27 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area reported as 2,022 (source: other)
• HOA & community: Subdivision: Meadowbrook; No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Other architectural style; 2-story home; Entry and primary living spaces on the first floor
• Construction: Built in 2021; Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawl space and poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Fenced (other type)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Dining area on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms (all on the first floor); Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms (primary and full bathrooms located on the first floor); No half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; 1 HVAC unit
• Interior features: 8 total finished rooms; 6 closets; Unfinished basement with outside entry; No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-372/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 243 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,071/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 2054% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $265k implies a 755% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,066 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.50%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $256,794
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
530 School Way	0.46mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,091 (+3%)	1mo	$269,900	$129	67
5605 W Southland Blvd	0.62mi	5/2.5	2,072 (+2%)	2mo	$285,000	$138	63
4736 Southern Pkwy	0.58mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,000 (-1%)	16mo	$359,000	$180	53
505 Forum Ave	0.33mi	4/1.0 (-1)	2,264 (+12%)	4mo	$255,000	$113	48
4705 Southern Pkwy	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,160 (+7%)	12mo	$400,000	$185	48
227 Inverness Ave	0.43mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,910 (-6%)	20mo	$141,500	$74	43
629 Iroquois Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,053 (+2%)	19mo	$260,000	$127	41
5610 Southland Blvd	0.65mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,778 (-12%)	9mo	$200,000	$112	37
1019 Brookline Ave	0.75mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (-10%)	6mo	$258,000	$141	35
4840 S 6th St	0.61mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,832 (-9%)	21mo	$230,000	$126	28
124 E Wellington Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,300 (+14%)	11mo	$269,000	$117	27
707 Iroquois Ave	0.75mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,896 (-6%)	23mo	$232,700	$123	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-47,271
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-53,164
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40214

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 243
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,071 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,000/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,110

Max offer price $259,531

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4010 Taylor Blvd Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1612	$3,000	$1.86	16d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-01
   listed $265,000 Active
2. 2021-05-17
   soldstatus $31,000
3. 2013-09-21
   historical
4. 2013-09-21
   historical
5. 2012-09-21
   listed $88,900
6. 2012-09-21
   listed $88,900
7. 2010-06-30
   historical
8. 2010-06-30
   historical
9. 2010-02-17
   listed $99,900
10. 2010-02-17
    listed $94,900
11. 2001-06-25
    soldstatus $46,100
12. 2001-03-09
    listed $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,000 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,279 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$279/yr (+$23/mo · 13.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,848
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$2,000
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,988
• − Management: −$1,988
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$5,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,201
• After-tax cash flow: $830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 45,405
• Household income: $54,931
• Rent vs Own: 45.6% rent · 54.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2054.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Philippines
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 12% Vietnamese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -235.43%
• Current HPI: 237.4062
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.89%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+452.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $265,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-21 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2013-09-21 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2012-09-21 Listed $88,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2012-09-21 Listed $88,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2010-06-30 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2010-06-30 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2010-02-17 Listed $94,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2010-02-17 Listed $99,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2001-06-25 Sold (MLS) $46,100 Metro Search MLS
• 2001-03-09 Listed $48,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,000 · +43.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.