1300 Cherry Creek Dr · Shepherd, TX 77371

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 2005 1.82 ac lot Est $140k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Say hello to your slice of Texas - 1.82 ACRES in Shepherd,TX with easy access to major highways - HWY59. Completely fenced in with gated entrance. 2/1 unfinished house on blocks with storage building. No restrictions. Low Taxes. Shepherd ISD. Located 10-20 minutes from Cleveland & Livingston. 25-30 minutes from Valley Ranch Town Center. Hablamos Espanol.

Key facts

• 1.82 acres
• No restrictions
• Gated entrance

Tags

• 1.82 ACRES
• GATED ENTRANCE
• COMPLETELY FENCED IN
• SHEPHERD ISD
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS
• NO RESTRICTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.5% in Shepherd — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,112 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Shepherd ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #770 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $223 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,850 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.51%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,776
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 Marie St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,252 (+15%)	15mo	$160,000	$128	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,170
• Equity at exit: $40,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $31,687
• Equity at exit: $49,367

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77371

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,315 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,972/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,175

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $149	+0% $111	+5% $72	+10% $34
Rent	-10% $7	-5% $59	+0% $111	+5% $163	+10% $215
Rate	-1.0pp $179	-0.5pp $145	base $111	+0.5pp $76	+1.0pp $40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-03-20
    listed $135,000 Active 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Say hello to your slice of Texas - 1.82 ACRES in Shepherd,TX with easy access to major highways - HWY59. Completely fenced in with gated entrance. 2/1 unfinished house on blocks with storage building. No restrictions. Low Taxes. Shepherd ISD. Located 10-20 minutes from Cleveland & Livingston. 25-30 minutes from Valley Ranch Town Center. Hablamos Espanol.

17. 2008-12-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,972 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$499/yr (+$42/mo · 25.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,786
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,972
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,263
• − Management: −$1,263
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$210
• After-tax cash flow: $1,539/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shepherd ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840020
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,857
• Composite: 17.77/100
• National rank: #9016
• State rank: #770 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shepherd

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1112
• US rank: #19716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,548

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 12% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 22%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Current HPI: 201.6618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2008-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,972 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.