2431 Deerfield Rd · New York, NY 11691

$350,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1940 2,136 sqft lot Est $516k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cozy home, with great potential, located on a quiet residential street in Far Rockaway. The property features a front den and an open-concept layout, offering a flexible living space. This home requires TLC and is an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to renovate and customize. The basement has experienced water intrusion, resulting in mold, and will need remediation. Ideal for buyers seeking value and upside

Key facts

• 2,136 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 27 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $471 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).
• Recommended offer: $345k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,916/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 4702% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $344,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.99%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $515,592
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2412 Deerfield Rd	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,320 (+11%)	7mo	$572,990	$434	72
188 Beach 27th St	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,035 (-13%)	21mo	$580,000	$560	44
17-16 Redfern Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (+5%)	22mo	$540,000	$432	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-26,546
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $16,245
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11691

• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,916 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,582/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$822
• Net cashflow: $471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,320

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13-15 Heyson Rd Unit 2 Far Rockaway, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$3,600	$3.00	19d	1	0.61mi
11 Bayview Ave Inwood, NY	3.0	2.0	1246	$4,500	$3.61	24d	1	1.05mi
138 Eldorado St Atlantic Beach, NY	2.0	1.5	1200	$4,100	$3.42	19d	1	1.08mi
49 Roger Ave Inwood, NY	3.0	1.0	800	$3,200	$4.00	43d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-07
   soldstatus $360,000
2. 2026-01-14
   status Pending
3. 2025-12-18
   listed $350,000 Active
4. 2013-09-30
   soldstatus $298,000
5. 2013-02-27
   historical
6. 2013-02-14
   soldstatus $120,500
7. 2012-11-27
   listed $239,000
8. 1986-12-09
   soldstatus $67,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,582 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,248 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,667/yr (+$139/mo · 64.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$2,582
• − Insurance: −$6,868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,760
• − Management: −$3,760
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable income: $237
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$57
• After-tax cash flow: $5,593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 69,359
• Household income: $56,135
• Rent vs Own: 72.3% rent · 27.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4702.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% Hispanic / Latino 26% White 24% Two or more races 12% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -397.66%
• Current HPI: 281.4044
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+437.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records
• 2026-01-14 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Listed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $298,000 Public Records
• 2013-02-27 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $120,500 Public Records
• 2012-11-27 Listed $239,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,582 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.