15509 SE Mill Plain Blvd #31 · Vancouver, WA 98684

$79,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1976 Est $93k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well cared for and full of potential, this older manufactured home offers a functional split-bedroom floor plan. The front bedroom features a ceiling fan, wall to wall carpet and direct access to the hall bath. A spacious living room flows into the dining area, creating a comfortable layout for everyday living. The kitchen comes complete with a dishwasher, stove, and refrigerator, while upgraded vinyl plank flooring runs throughout most of the home. All appliances are staying including the washer and dryer. Stay comfortable year-round with a newer heating system, Goodman heat pump, Honeywell home pro series thermostat and newer vinyl dual-pane windows allowing for ample natural lighting thr

Key facts

• Ceiling fan
• Goodman heat pump
• Newer heating system

Tags

• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• CEILING FAN
• UPGRADED VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEWER HEATING SYSTEM
• GOODMAN HEAT PUMP
• NEWER VINYL DUAL-PANE WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit dimensions: approximately 70 ft by 14 ft
• Financial info: Land lease in effect (expires December 31, 2026); Lot rent paid monthly
• HOA & community: Fran-Mar park (senior community); Monthly lot rent; Association provides grounds maintenance, management, meeting room, sewer, trash and water

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Driveway
• Security: Handicap access
• Utilities: Public water; Community / shared septic; Electric service; Cable internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park (not attached); One-level living; Handicap accessible
• Construction: Built in 1976; Skirting foundation
• Exterior features: Metal siding; Metal roof; Yard; Tool shed; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Free-standing refrigerator; Vinyl floor in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main with attached bath, ceiling fan, walk-in closet and walk-in shower; Second bedroom on main with ceiling fan and closet
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank; Vinyl flooring; Wall-to-wall carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level); Accessible full bath; Walk-in shower in primary bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Laundry room on main; Washer and dryer included; Luxury vinyl plank and vinyl flooring; Wall-to-wall carpet; Double-pane windows with vinyl frames; Crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry with washer and dryer; Utility room on main

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $815 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 2.7% in Vancouver — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#62 in WA, #1,133 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Evergreen School District (Clark) (urban): math 41% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #164 of 291 in WA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mill Plain Elementary School (284 students, 70% FRL); Shahala Middle School (874 students, 44% FRL); Mountain View High School (1,589 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 39% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 299 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,547 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (1,361 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clark County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $78,701 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.70%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $93,324
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15509 SE Mill Plain Blvd	0.00mi	2/1.0	928 (+0%)	3mo	$80,000	$86	93
15411 SE Mill Plain Blvd Blvd Unit A-9	0.09mi	2/1.0	840 (-9%)	1mo	$75,000	$89	76
15509 SE Mill Plain Blvd #98	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+8%)	13mo	$130,000	$130	75
15411 SE Mill Plain Blvd Unit B12	0.09mi	2/1.0	910 (-2%)	17mo	$95,000	$104	75
15509 SE Mill Plain Blvd #18	0.00mi	2/1.0	800 (-13%)	6mo	$80,500	$101	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $35,824
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.83×
• Total profit: $85,679
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98684

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,730 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $815

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $870	-5% $842	+0% $815	+5% $787	+10% $760
Rent	-10% $678	-5% $746	+0% $815	+5% $883	+10% $951
Rate	-1.0pp $855	-0.5pp $835	base $815	+0.5pp $794	+1.0pp $773

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1000 SE 160th Ave Unit CC-231 -ADA Vancouver, WA	1.0	1.0	620	$1,295	$2.09	44d	1	0.14mi
1000 SE 160th Ave Unit RR-342 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	906	$1,600	$1.77	24d	1	0.14mi
1000 SE 160th Ave Unit RR-336 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	906	$1,600	$1.77	17d	1	0.14mi
1000 SE 160th Ave Apt M104 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	906	$1,600	$1.77	8d	1	0.14mi
1000 SE 160th Ave Apt FF257 Vancouver, WA	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,950	$1.86	44d	1	0.14mi
1000 SE 160th Ave Apt N116 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	906	$1,600	$1.77	18d	1	0.14mi
1000 SE 160th Ave Apt V170 Vancouver, WA	1.0	1.0	620	$1,425	$2.30	44d	1	0.14mi
1000 SE 160th Ave Unit C-015 Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0	860	$1,550	$1.80	44d	1	0.14mi
1000 SE 160th Ave Apt DD238 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	906	$1,600	$1.77	44d	1	0.14mi
1020 SE Park Crest Ave Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0	792	$1,300	$1.64	13d	1	0.19mi
510 SE 157th Ave #35 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,895	$1.79	24d	1	0.25mi
900 SE Park Crest Ave Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,730	$2.31	2d	9	0.37mi
14913 SE Mill Plain Blvd Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	939	$2,000	$2.13	3d	4	0.38mi
16410 SE 5th St Unit G-61 Vancouver, WA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,350	$1.93	20d	1	0.55mi
15501 NE 2nd St Vancouver, WA	3.0	2.0	1264	$2,750	$2.18	2d	1	0.56mi
301 SE 166th Ave Vancouver, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	883	$1,827	$2.07	8d	15	0.68mi
1707 SE 145th Ct Unit 1707 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,795	$1.77	24d	1	0.68mi
621 SE 168th Ave Vancouver, WA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$1,649	$1.47	3d	9	0.73mi
621 SE 168th Ave Vancouver, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	869	$2,079	$2.39	15d	7	0.73mi
16801 SE 1st St Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,608	$1.68	24d	1	0.74mi
2404 SE 161st Ct Unit X182 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,495	$1.66	20d	1	0.78mi
16807 SE 19th St Vancouver, WA	1.0	1.0	850	$1,800	$2.12	3d	1	0.79mi
701 SE 139th Ave Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	806	$1,600	$1.99	3d	6	0.82mi
905 SE 136th Ave Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0	945	$1,810	$1.92	3d	2	0.94mi
16900 SE 26th Dr Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	1043	$1,926	$1.85	2d	5	0.97mi
600 SE 177th Ave Vancouver, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	931	$2,030	$2.18	2d	20	0.97mi
17775 SE Mill Plain Blvd Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	732	$2,353	$3.21	5d	1	1.02mi
16506 SE 29th St Vancouver, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,962	$1.85	2d	13	1.03mi
812 SE 136th Ave Vancouver, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	931	$1,805	$1.94	3d	10	1.10mi
13601 SE 19th St Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	965	$2,224	$2.30	8d	6	1.10mi
13307 SE McGillivray Blvd Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	962	$1,895	$1.97	3d	1	1.13mi
13314 SE 19th St Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	899	$2,274	$2.53	3d	10	1.13mi
13213 SE 7th St Vancouver, WA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$1,500	$1.37	3d	2	1.18mi
3100 SE 168th Ave Vancouver, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1040	$2,205	$2.12	2d	14	1.18mi
333 NE 136th Ave Vancouver, WA	1.0	1.0	684	$1,650	$2.41	3d	2	1.22mi
1520 SE Talton Ave Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,395	$1.74	20d	1	1.27mi
1604 SE Talton Ave Unit 1604 Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0	889	$1,450	$1.63	22d	1	1.27mi
1526 SE Talton Ave Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	20d	1	1.27mi
14000 SE Cascade Park Dr Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0	1029	$1,860	$1.81	2d	2	1.28mi
14008 NE 10th St Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	808	$1,795	$2.22	5d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $9,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,170
• After-tax cash flow: $7,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Evergreen School District (Clark)
• NCES district ID: 5302700
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,418
• Composite: 42.53/100
• National rank: #6859
• State rank: #164 of 291 in WA

Livability — Vancouver

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #1133

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vancouver, WA
• County: Clark County · 513,189 people
• City population: 360,195
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 37,298
• Household income: $90,620
• Rent vs Own: 46.6% rent · 53.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1481.0

Population outlook (Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 529,610 people
• By 2030: 563,242 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 625,905 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 681,558 · +28.7%
• By 2075: 805,967 · +52.2%
• By 2100: 877,450 · +65.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Pacific Islander 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Clark

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.0) · D 52.1% · R 45.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.9pp no change · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 7.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.0 2020: D+5.1 2016: D+0.1 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -237.93%
• Current HPI: 290.416
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $79,900 RMLS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $126 · +66.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.