438 Chestnut Dr · South Lockport, NY 14094

$42,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Built 1988 5,000 sqft lot Est $62k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this home which features 2 bedrooms with 2 full baths. The master bedroom has 2 closets and master bath with a garden tub. This home has an open floor plan, cathedral ceiling, breakfast bar, updated windows and doors plus a screened front porch. Make this house your next home!

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Screened front porch
• Newer appliances

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• ROOF REPLACEMENT
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• SCREENED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease payment: $855
• HOA & community: Community amenities include a clubhouse and basketball court

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected; High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story (1 story); Resale property; Double wide mobile home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Enclosed porch; Porch; Partial fencing; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; Bedroom 1 on first floor; Bedroom 2 on first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Forced air
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Window treatments; Drapes; Primary suite; Main level primary; Bedroom on main level; Has fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $43k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $731 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $43k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.7% vs local median 1.5% in South Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#633 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $297 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,613 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.99%
• DSCR: 4.25
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $62,208
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1163 Timberwood Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,283 (+11%)	18mo	$69,900	$54	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $40,487
• Equity at exit: $6,397

10-year hold

• IRR: 77.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.24×
• Total profit: $98,929
• Equity at exit: $3,709

Cash invested: $12,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 357
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$54 /mo · $644/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $731

Break-even live

Break-even rent $375

Max offer price $42,900

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $760	-5% $745	+0% $731	+5% $716	+10% $701
Rent	-10% $628	-5% $679	+0% $731	+5% $782	+10% $833
Rate	-1.0pp $752	-0.5pp $742	base $731	+0.5pp $720	+1.0pp $708

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,725
• Closing costs: $1,287
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5834 S Transit Rd Lockport, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	2d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $42,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $42,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $42,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $42,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $42,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $42,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    listed $45,000 Active
17. 2026-01-20
    historical
18. 2025-11-17
    price $50,000
19. 2025-11-04
    price $55,000
20. 2025-10-02
    listed $59,900 Active
21. 2021-11-08
    soldstatus $35,500 Closed Sale or Rented 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    Welcome to this home which features 2 bedrooms with 2 full baths. The master bedroom has 2 closets and master bath with a garden tub. This home has an open floor plan, cathedral ceiling, breakfast bar, updated windows and doors plus a screened front porch. Make this house your next home!

22. 2021-10-08
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    Welcome to this home which features 2 bedrooms with 2 full baths. The master bedroom has 2 closets and master bath with a garden tub. This home has an open floor plan, cathedral ceiling, breakfast bar, updated windows and doors plus a screened front porch. Make this house your next home!

23. 2021-10-04
    listed $35,500 Active 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    Welcome to this home which features 2 bedrooms with 2 full baths. The master bedroom has 2 closets and master bath with a garden tub. This home has an open floor plan, cathedral ceiling, breakfast bar, updated windows and doors plus a screened front porch. Make this house your next home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,403
• − Property taxes: −$644
• − Insurance: −$214
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$1,248
• Taxable income: $8,597
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,063
• After-tax cash flow: $6,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,793
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #3997
• State rank: #452 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Lockport

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #633
• US rank: #11642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Lockport, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+26.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $45,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-20 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $50,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $55,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 2021-11-08 Sold (MLS) $35,500 WNYREIS
• 2021-10-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-10-04 Listed $35,500 WNYREIS