150 Lost Crk Trl · Abilene, TX 79602

$270,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,804 sqft · SingleFamily · 25 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 4,356 sqft lot $150/sqft · 17% above area Est $233k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21259819 - Built by NHC - Aug 2026 completion! ~ Model 1804-1 B1- Monroe The Monroe Plan from our Liberty Series combines thoughtful design and everyday functionality, offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-planned living space. This single-story home features a split-bedroom layout for added privacy. At the front of the home, you’ll find three secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room. A versatile flex room near the main living area offers the perfect space for a home office, playroom, or sitting area. The bright and open kitchen is the heart of the Monroe Plan, complete with an island and a clear view

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Special listing condition: Builder
• Financial info: No second mortgage; Financing terms include Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (garage faces front)
• Security: No smart home features listed
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story; New construction (incomplete, year built 2025); Not attached to other units
• Construction: Siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; New construction (2025, incomplete)
• Exterior features: Lot in Waterside at Cedar Creek subdivision; Lot less than 0.5 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Eat-in kitchen with pantry
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms, all on the main level; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet; Additional bedrooms with standard closet space; One room designated as an office (14 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; One living area; One dining area; Total room count: 8; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $271k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $718 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $271k).
• Recommended offer: $267k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alcorta El (math 35% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 451 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,925 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.36%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,523
• List price: $270,990
• Delta: 16.54%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 Dotty Lou	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,802 (-0%)	3mo	$229,267	$127	90
113 Dotty Lou	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,802 (-0%)	3mo	$214,397	$119	90
150 Dotty Lou	0.12mi	4/2.5	1,802 (-0%)	3mo	$232,600	$129	90
3517 Water Ridge Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,804 (0%)	1mo	$222,211	$123	81
3533 Silver Springs Ct	0.26mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (0%)	1mo	$258,877	$144	78
217 Coyote Creek Ct	0.29mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (0%)	1mo	$262,990	$146	77
219 Polasek Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,001 (+11%)	0mo	$260,990	$130	76
141 Coyote Creek Ct	0.33mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (0%)	0mo	$262,990	$146	75
220 Dotty Lou	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,002 (+11%)	3mo	$237,280	$119	72
156 Dotty Lou	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,001 (+11%)	3mo	$245,211	$123	72
107 Dotty Lou	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,001 (+11%)	3mo	$245,990	$123	72
132 Dotty Lou	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,001 (+11%)	3mo	$245,490	$123	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $19,205
• Equity at exit: $40,405

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $154,700
• Equity at exit: $23,430

Cash invested: $75,877 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 370
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,280 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,421
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$339 /mo · $4,065/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $718

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,371

Max offer price $270,990

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,748
• Closing costs: $8,130
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2929 Sayles Blvd Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	2384	$6,000	$2.52	13d	1	1.23mi
1709 Bandolero Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$4,500	$3.49	13d	1	1.24mi
1097 Lytle Creek Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,895	$1.99	13d	1	1.27mi
3533 Grand Ave Abilene, TX	5.0	2.0	1629	$2,200	$1.35	43d	1	1.41mi
3933 Wake Forest Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,495	$1.89	22d	1	1.45mi
3933 Wake Forest Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,495	$1.89	20d	1	1.45mi
3926 Duke Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$2,250	$1.40	7d	1	1.45mi
609 Marlin Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1925	$3,250	$1.69	18d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-04
   listed $270,990 Active 885-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,180
• − Property taxes: −$4,065
• − Insurance: −$1,355
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,148
• − Management: −$3,148
• − Depreciation: −$7,883
• Taxable income: $4,575
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,098
• After-tax cash flow: $7,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a modern and functional layout with a well-maintained exterior and interior. Potential value-adding updates include painting, landscaping, and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading appliances — Modern appliances can improve functionality and attract more buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract eco-conscious buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances — Modern appliances can improve functionality and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract eco-conscious buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $270,990 NTREIS