Morgan Plan · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34212

$299,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,790 sqft · Townhouse · 9 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks

Come home to the Morgan, a new townhome design by award-winning Neal Communities. This 2-story home includes 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and an attached garage. As soon as you enter the front door, you are greeted by the large living room with a well-appointed kitchen and dining space leading out to the covered lanai. A powder room, storage closet on the lanai, and access to the garage are also on the first floor. * Base price does not include corner unit premium or design options *

Key facts

• New townhome design
• Storage closet
• Large living room

Tags

• NEW TOWNHOME DESIGN
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• COVERED LANAI
• STORAGE CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $299,990; Listing status: Active

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage / off-street parking (total 1 parking space)
• Home design: Plan: Morgan; New construction inventory type: Plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1,790

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $361,580.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $300k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-97 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 479 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $299,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $361,580
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2262 Washington Palm Ct	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,790 (0%)	1mo	$316,940	$177	75
2272 Washington Palm Ct	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,790 (0%)	2mo	$362,120	$202	74
2214 Washington Palm Ct	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,790 (0%)	8mo	$333,840	$187	71
17713 Crescent Moon Loop	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,758 (-2%)	3mo	$332,000	$189	69
17745 Crescent Moon Loop	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,784 (-0%)	10mo	$362,000	$203	65
2304 Washington Palm Ct	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,790 (0%)	10mo	$340,270	$190	64
17460 Crescent Moon Loop	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,784 (-0%)	8mo	$350,000	$196	61
17436 Crescent Moon Loop	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,673 (-6%)	4mo	$280,000	$167	54
17620 Crescent Moon Loop	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,673 (-6%)	11mo	$350,000	$209	51
17660 Crescent Moon Loop	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,673 (-6%)	19mo	$349,990	$209	47
17644 Crescent Moon Loop	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,673 (-6%)	19mo	$359,990	$215	46
17412 Crescent Moon Loop	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,673 (-6%)	20mo	$349,880	$209	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.82% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-55,471
• Equity at exit: $73,266

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-74,161
• Equity at exit: $65,537

Cash invested: $101,242 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34212

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 479
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,896
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$452 /mo · $5,424/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$638
• Net cashflow: $-97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,163

Max offer price $347,474

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $27	+0% $-97	+5% $-222	+10% $-347
Rent	-10% $-338	-5% $-218	+0% $-97	+5% $23	+10% $143
Rate	-1.0pp $85	-0.5pp $-6	base $-97	+0.5pp $-191	+1.0pp $-286

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,395
• Closing costs: $10,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17777 Crescent Moon Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,300	$1.57	21d	1	0.48mi
17649 Crescent Moon Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1673	$2,749	$1.64	24d	1	0.54mi
3222 Bitterroot Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1665	$3,000	$1.80	24d	1	0.55mi
17624 Crescent Moon Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1784	$2,950	$1.65	24d	1	0.57mi
18143 Wheathouse Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$3,300	$1.81	24d	1	0.66mi
18524 Buckskin Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,300	$1.57	24d	1	0.70mi
3394 Hilltop Cir Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$3,600	$1.59	12d	1	0.74mi
16929 Yard Spring Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,700	$1.80	3d	1	0.75mi
3379 Hilltop Cir Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2360	$3,100	$1.31	24d	1	0.75mi
16921 Yard Spring Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$3,250	$1.44	24d	1	0.76mi
2617 Fetlock Run Unit 2617 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,350	$1.61	16d	1	0.82mi
17707 Gulf Ranch Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$4,800	$2.35	3d	1	0.84mi
3109 Novara Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$2,500	$1.82	12d	1	0.85mi
16610 San Nicola Pl Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1268	$1,975	$1.56	24d	1	0.95mi
2531 Beachcomber Inlet Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1479	$2,745	$1.86	3d	7	0.98mi
3263 Alba Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1926	$12,000	$6.23	24d	1	1.07mi
16139 Isola Pl Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1678	$4,000	$2.38	16d	1	1.25mi
16126 San Donato Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1926	$5,500	$2.86	24d	1	1.30mi
4216 Pond Brook Ct Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2419	$4,500	$1.86	15d	1	1.38mi
16037 7th Ave E Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,500	$1.71	24d	1	1.47mi
17903 Cherished Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1672	$2,800	$1.67	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 481-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   days on marketlisting id $299,990 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,990 Active 550 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,990 Active 549 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,990 Active 548 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 544 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 543 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 542 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 541 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,254
• − Property taxes: −$5,424
• − Insurance: −$1,808
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,918
• − Management: −$2,918
• − Depreciation: −$10,519
• Taxable loss: −$7,365
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,768
• After-tax cash flow: $598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Morgan Plan townhome by Neal Communities is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a well-maintained exterior, fresh interior, and modern amenities, making it a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace outdoor lighting fixtures — Modern lighting enhances curb appeal and safety
• Both Install smart home automation — Smart home features improve convenience and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace outdoor lighting fixtures — Modern lighting enhances curb appeal and safety ↑
• Both Install smart home automation — Smart home features improve convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,536
• Household income: $125,486
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 383.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.82%
• Current HPI: 276.7636
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.44%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B