155 N Autumn St · Williamsville, NY 14221

$290,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,326 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1957 0.27 ac lot Est $298k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to 155 N. Autumn St! A charming & impeccably maintained Cape offering exceptional curb appeal in a highly desirable location! This beautiful home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a flexible bonus room on the 2nd floor that could serve as a possible 4th bedroom. Step inside to find gleaming refinished hardwood floors, a warm, light filled living room with an inviting atmosphere throughout. The spacious eat-in kitchen provides plenty of cabinet & countertop space for everyday dining and entertaining. A full bath along with 2 good sized bedrooms complete the first floor. Upstairs, you'll find a spacious primary bedroom, brand-new carpeting throughout, large walk-

Key facts

• Mini-split system
• Wonderful patio
• Flexible bonus room

Tags

• FLEXIBLE BONUS ROOM
• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• SPACIOUS EAT-IN KITCHEN
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSETS
• MINI-SPLIT SYSTEM
• WONDERFUL PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Trails/paths nearby

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener; Driveway parking; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story building; Existing structure
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Asphalt roof; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Fully fenced yard; Patio; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Free-standing range; Microwave; Oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Two bedrooms on the first level; One bedroom on the second level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Tile; Linoleum; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Ductless heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Solid surface counters; Thermal windows; Bedroom on main level; Convertible bedroom; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in the basement; Gas water heater; Sump pump in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (2.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.5% in Williamsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#44 in NY, #693 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $290k implies a 123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $282,818 (2.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.38%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $298,350
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
230 N Harvest St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,304 (-2%)	9mo	$305,000	$234	78
58 Linwood Ave	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,332 (+0%)	11mo	$290,000	$218	69
121 Los Robles St	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,294 (-2%)	12mo	$370,000	$286	60
83 S Union Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,413 (+7%)	7mo	$300,000	$212	60
144 Lafayette Blvd	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,358 (+2%)	8mo	$315,000	$232	59
183 N Harvest St	0.10mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,132 (-15%)	6mo	$255,000	$225	57
86 Pasadena Pl	0.42mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,374 (+4%)	10mo	$331,000	$241	57
14 Binner Rd	0.67mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,364 (+3%)	2mo	$314,800	$231	55
55 N Forest Rd	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,392 (+5%)	6mo	$200,000	$144	45
79 White Rd	0.46mi	4/1.0	1,148 (-13%)	11mo	$221,000	$193	43
1120 Cleveland Dr	0.65mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,492 (+12%)	6mo	$230,000	$154	37
218 Yeager Dr	0.70mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,155 (-13%)	10mo	$185,000	$160	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-30,798
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $11,703
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14221

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,828 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$431 /mo · $5,176/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $290,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $325	-5% $243	+0% $161	+5% $79	+10% $-3
Rent	-10% $-62	-5% $50	+0% $161	+5% $273	+10% $385
Rate	-1.0pp $307	-0.5pp $235	base $161	+0.5pp $86	+1.0pp $10

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
239 Lehn Springs Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1700	$3,200	$1.88	3d	1	0.61mi
1328 Cleveland Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1020	$2,200	$2.16	2d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $290,000 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $290,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   remarks 691-char remark
8. 2026-06-07
   listed $290,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,176 · $431/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,176 · $431/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$5,176
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,715
• − Management: −$2,715
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$2,798
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$672
• After-tax cash flow: $2,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631470
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,907
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #678
• State rank: #114 of 590 in NY

Livability — Williamsville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #693

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 55,255
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,255
• Household income: $101,615
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -301.37%
• Current HPI: 322.6947
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+317.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $290,000 WNYREIS
• 2009-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $107,500 Public Records
• 1995-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $69,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,176 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.