275 Walnut Ln Unit 275WA · Willow Springs, IL 60458

$49,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 96 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as a fitness center, community events, and a card room / holiday house, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Card room
• Built 2026

Tags

• FITNESS CENTER
• CARD ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 275 Walnut Ln Unit 275WA, Justice, IL 60458; Plan name 93195; Status: Active; Last modified May 6, 2026
• Financial info: List price $49,400

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas; Central air
• Home design: Spec inventory type
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1152

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.6% vs local median 5.2% in Willow Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Argo Chsd 217 (suburban): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #423 of 620 in IL (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 97.36%
• DSCR: 5.33
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 98.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.59×
• Total profit: $64,142
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.66×
• Total profit: $148,937
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60458

• Home prices YoY: -32.8%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,871 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $1,134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,168	-5% $1,151	+0% $1,134	+5% $1,116	+10% $1,099
Rent	-10% $986	-5% $1,060	+0% $1,134	+5% $1,208	+10% $1,281
Rate	-1.0pp $1,159	-0.5pp $1,146	base $1,134	+0.5pp $1,121	+1.0pp $1,108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7601 Banks St Unit 2E Justice, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	14d	1	0.43mi
8120 Concord Ln Unit H Justice, IL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,550	$2.12	0d	1	0.63mi
7915 S 84th Ave Unit 6 Justice, IL	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	26d	1	1.12mi
8451 82nd St Unit 1N Justice, IL	2.0	1.0	820	$1,450	$1.77	26d	1	1.14mi
119 Cliff St Unit 2e Willow Springs, IL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,800	$2.40	0d	1	1.45mi
8112 Marion Dr Unit 2W Justice, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	14d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $49,900 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $49,900 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $49,900 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   pricedays on market $49,900 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,400 Active 83 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $13,619
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,269
• After-tax cash flow: $10,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Argo Chsd 217
• NCES district ID: 1704020
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $47,451
• Composite: 17.68/100
• National rank: #9026
• State rank: #423 of 620 in IL

Livability — Willow Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7733

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,153

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 20% Two or more races 10% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 18% Spanish 14% Arabic 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.45%
• Current HPI: 220.3837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B