11151 Spottswood Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$99,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,283 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1966 6,398 sqft lot Est $169k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home or investment property. Recent remodel by former owners.

Key facts

• 6,398 sq ft lot
• Built 1966
• Listed 31 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $565 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.22%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,356
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11151 Spottswood Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,283 (0%)	1mo	$99,900	$78	97
6611 Mohawk St	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,255 (-2%)	6mo	$142,500	$114	83
6330 Cobalt St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-3%)	1mo	$199,995	$161	72
6130 Hartwick Rd	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,278 (-0%)	5mo	$115,000	$90	69
6319 Hopper Rd	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,188 (-7%)	1mo	$110,000	$93	69
6110 Guadalupe St	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,336 (+4%)	1mo	$120,000	$90	69
11011 Ledford Ln	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,203 (-6%)	2mo	$170,000	$141	68
6315 Mohawk St	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,250 (-3%)	7mo	$240,000	$192	63
6319 Annunciation St	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,214 (-5%)	6mo	$205,000	$169	61
6302 Hanley Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+12%)	1mo	$189,999	$132	60
5930 Annunciation St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,235 (-4%)	0mo	$186,999	$151	58
6702 Leedale St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+14%)	2mo	$139,900	$96	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $77,009
• Equity at exit: $80,347

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.76×
• Total profit: $189,080
• Equity at exit: $163,931

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,746 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,991/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,031

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $621	-5% $593	+0% $565	+5% $536	+10% $508
Rent	-10% $427	-5% $496	+0% $565	+5% $633	+10% $702
Rate	-1.0pp $615	-0.5pp $590	base $565	+0.5pp $539	+1.0pp $512

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	23d	1	0.19mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	6d	1	0.32mi
6822 Leedale St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$1,500	$1.53	45d	1	0.41mi
7223 Valmont Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1546	$1,595	$1.03	45d	1	0.54mi
11435 Raincove Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,345	$1.34	5d	1	0.67mi
11610 Danford Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	45d	1	0.71mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	20d	1	0.73mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	9d	1	1.02mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	45d	1	1.05mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	9d	1	1.07mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	15d	1	1.22mi
10474 Red Orchid Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,875	$1.21	25d	1	1.22mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,865	$2.58	0d	1	1.30mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	45d	1	1.39mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	18d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-13
   listed $99,900 Active
4. 2026-03-10
   historical
5. 2025-09-26
   listed $119,900 Active
6. 2024-01-06
   historical $1,340
7. 2023-12-05
   price $1,340
8. 2023-11-22
   price $1,345
9. 2023-11-15
   price $1,365
10. 2023-10-29
    listed $1,385
11. 2009-07-16
    soldstatus
12. 2008-12-31
    soldstatus
13. 2008-12-09
    soldstatus 75-char remark

    Show marketing remark (75 chars)

    Great starter home or investment property. Recent remodel by former owners.

14. 2008-11-17
    historical 75-char remark

    Show marketing remark (75 chars)

    Great starter home or investment property. Recent remodel by former owners.

15. 2008-06-25
    listed $39,500 75-char remark

    Show marketing remark (75 chars)

    Great starter home or investment property. Recent remodel by former owners.

16. 2008-05-21
    historical
17. 2007-08-09
    listed $45,000
18. 2007-07-30
    historical
19. 2007-06-04
    listed $82,500
20. 2007-01-30
    historical
21. 2007-01-01
    listed $46,000
22. 2006-11-28
    historical
23. 2006-08-30
    listed $56,850
24. 2003-12-08
    soldstatus
25. 2003-09-16
    historical
26. 2003-06-13
    listed $42,900
27. 1999-09-29
    soldstatus
28. 1997-11-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,991 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,991 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,951
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$2,991
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,676
• − Management: −$1,676
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $5,606
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,346
• After-tax cash flow: $5,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+132.9% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $119,900 HARMLS
• 2024-01-06 Rental Removed $1,340 RENTLY
• 2023-12-05 Price Changed $1,340 RENTLY
• 2023-11-22 Price Changed $1,345 RENTLY
• 2023-11-15 Price Changed $1,365 RENTLY
• 2023-10-29 Listed for Rent $1,385 RENTLY
• 2009-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-12-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-12-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2008-11-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-06-25 Listed $39,500 HARMLS
• 2008-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-08-09 Listed $45,000 HARMLS
• 2007-07-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-06-04 Listed $82,500 HARMLS
• 2007-01-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-01-01 Listed $46,000 HARMLS
• 2006-11-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-08-30 Listed $56,850 HARMLS
• 2003-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-09-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-06-13 Listed $42,900 HARMLS
• 1999-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,991 · +21.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.