8531 NW 39th Cir · Gainesville, FL 32653

$45,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1979 0.32 ac lot $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime Opportunity in Turkey Creek Forest! This spacious . 32 acre lot with no rear neighbor in the highly sought-after 55+ community of Turkey Creek Forest offers an incredible opportunity for a fresh start. The current mobile home is not occupiable, giving the new owner the freedom to remove it and build a custom home. Enjoy a peaceful, active lifestyle with access to fantastic community amenities, including a clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, and walking trails. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and medical facilities, this is the perfect spot to create your dream home.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community amenities
• Tennis courts

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• NO REAR NEIGHBOR
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• TENNIS COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $810 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (44%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.17%
• DSCR: 4.43
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 77.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $44,431
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 80.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.38×
• Total profit: $105,601
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32653

• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,907/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $810

Break-even live

Break-even rent $574

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8479 NW 38th Dr Gainesville, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	21d	1	0.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $45,000 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   Prime Opportunity in Turkey Creek Forest! This spacious . 32 acre lot with no rear neighbor in the highly sought-after 55+ community of Turkey Creek Forest offers an incredible opportunity for a fresh start. The current mobile home is not occupiable, giving the new owner the freedom to remove it and build a custom home. Enjoy a peaceful, active lifestyle with access to fantastic community amenities, including a clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, and walking trails. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and medical facilities, this is the perfect spot to create your dream home.

2. 2026-03-27
   listed $80,000 Active 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   Prime Opportunity in Turkey Creek Forest! This spacious . 32 acre lot with no rear neighbor in the highly sought-after 55+ community of Turkey Creek Forest offers an incredible opportunity for a fresh start. The current mobile home is not occupiable, giving the new owner the freedom to remove it and build a custom home. Enjoy a peaceful, active lifestyle with access to fantastic community amenities, including a clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, and walking trails. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and medical facilities, this is the perfect spot to create your dream home.

3. 2025-12-03
   historical
4. 2025-08-15
   price $64,900
5. 2025-04-15
   price $70,000
6. 2025-03-25
   price $89,900
7. 2025-02-24
   listed $99,900 Active
8. 1992-01-21
   soldstatus $42,200
9. 1985-12-01
   soldstatus $43,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,907 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,907 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,907
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $9,686
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,325
• After-tax cash flow: $7,399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, FL
• City population: 188,348
• Population (ZIP): 15,457

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -149.00%
• Current HPI: 247.4137
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+4.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $64,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-15 Price Changed $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-25 Price Changed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-24 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $42,200 Public Records
• 1985-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,907 · -10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.