7736 Carmel Cv · Lynchburg, MS 38680

$306,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,506 sqft · Other public records · 108 Days on market

Built 2025 10,454 sqft lot $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller is offering 3% in concessions to be used how the buyer wishes for closing costs, pre-paids, buydowns and or upgrades. Located in Ranch Meadows Subdivision, this well laid out 1,802 sq. ft. home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a low-maintenance brick exterior. The interior features wood and tile flooring with carpet in the bedrooms and raised ceilings in the family room, highlighted by a fireplace and ceiling fan. The kitchen is designed for both function and style with quartz countertops, a serving bar with pendant lighting, built-in appliances, and recessed lighting. The dining area features a double windows for added natural light. The primary suite includes tile shower surrounds, a whirlpool tub, and a spacious walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms creating a split floor plan also offer walk-in closets, providing ample storage throughout the home. Upstairs is multi-purpose room that could serve as a bedroom or a game room. There is a rear covered patio overlooking the sodded yard. This property qualifies for USDA / Rural housing loans.

Key facts

• Raised ceilings
• Quartz countertops
• Ceiling fan

Tags

• LOW-MAINTENANCE BRICK EXTERIOR
• WOOD AND TILE FLOORING
• RAISED CEILINGS
• FIREPLACE
• CEILING FAN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $307k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-558 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (26.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (34.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#145 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,486 (34.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.79%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $131,643
• Equity at exit: $276,480

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $415,721
• Equity at exit: $596,239

Cash invested: $85,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38680

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,015 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,609
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$384 /mo · $4,604/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-558

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,721

Max offer price $226,131

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-346	-5% $-452	+0% $-558	+5% $-664	+10% $-770
Rent	-10% $-717	-5% $-638	+0% $-558	+5% $-479	+10% $-399
Rate	-1.0pp $-404	-0.5pp $-480	base $-558	+0.5pp $-638	+1.0pp $-719

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,725
• Closing costs: $9,207
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7601 Broken Hickory Dr Walls, MS	4.0	3.0	2176	$1,811	$0.83	44d	1	0.16mi
7787 Bailee Ln Walls, MS	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	44d	1	0.42mi
6205 Liberty Estates Dr Walls, MS	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,555	$1.15	5d	1	0.43mi
6916 Fox Briar Cv Walls, MS	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,600	$1.19	5d	1	0.56mi
6757 River Birch Rd Walls, MS	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,720	$1.29	12d	1	0.63mi
6915 Black Thorn Dr Walls, MS	4.0	2.0	1382	$1,655	$1.20	5d	1	0.64mi
7051 Lake Forest Dr N Walls, MS	3.0	2.0	1551	$1,595	$1.03	44d	1	0.71mi
7782 Emeline Dr Horn Lake, MS	4.0	2.5	1808	$2,265	$1.25	44d	1	0.72mi
5968 Shannon Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,650	$1.20	21d	1	0.73mi
5859 Shannon Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1139	$1,523	$1.34	44d	1	0.83mi
5565 Chapel Hill Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,543	$1.39	2d	1	1.07mi
6670 Tangleberry Cv Walls, MS	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,770	$1.11	21d	1	1.14mi
7089 Willow Point Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,895	$1.00	17d	1	1.20mi
5331 Greenwood Rd Horn Lake, MS	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,970	$1.11	12d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-03
   price $306,900 1069-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1069 chars)

   Seller is offering 3% in concessions to be used how the buyer wishes for closing costs, pre-paids, buydowns and or upgrades. Located in Ranch Meadows Subdivision, this well laid out 1,802 sq. ft. home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a low-maintenance brick exterior. The interior features wood and tile flooring with carpet in the bedrooms and raised ceilings in the family room, highlighted by a fireplace and ceiling fan. The kitchen is designed for both function and style with quartz countertops, a serving bar with pendant lighting, built-in appliances, and recessed lighting. The dining area features a double windows for added natural light. The primary suite includes tile shower surrounds, a whirlpool tub, and a spacious walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms creating a split floor plan also offer walk-in closets, providing ample storage throughout the home. Upstairs is multi-purpose room that could serve as a bedroom or a game room. There is a rear covered patio overlooking the sodded yard. This property qualifies for USDA / Rural housing loans.

2. 2026-02-01
   listed $309,900 Active 1069-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1069 chars)

   Seller is offering 3% in concessions to be used how the buyer wishes for closing costs, pre-paids, buydowns and or upgrades. Located in Ranch Meadows Subdivision, this well laid out 1,802 sq. ft. home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a low-maintenance brick exterior. The interior features wood and tile flooring with carpet in the bedrooms and raised ceilings in the family room, highlighted by a fireplace and ceiling fan. The kitchen is designed for both function and style with quartz countertops, a serving bar with pendant lighting, built-in appliances, and recessed lighting. The dining area features a double windows for added natural light. The primary suite includes tile shower surrounds, a whirlpool tub, and a spacious walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms creating a split floor plan also offer walk-in closets, providing ample storage throughout the home. Upstairs is multi-purpose room that could serve as a bedroom or a game room. There is a rear covered patio overlooking the sodded yard. This property qualifies for USDA / Rural housing loans.

3. 2026-01-30
   historical
4. 2025-10-20
   status Active
5. 2025-10-18
   historical
6. 2025-04-18
   listed $317,000 Active
7. 2023-06-13
   historical
8. 2023-01-10
   price $310,000
9. 2022-11-28
   price $309,900
10. 2022-08-30
    listed $306,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,191
• − Property taxes: −$4,604
• − Insurance: −$1,534
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,934
• − Management: −$1,934
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$8,928
• Taxable loss: −$12,295
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,951
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #145
• US rank: #14967

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 6,839
• Household income: $59,503
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 229.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 46% White 42% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 3% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Serbian 1% British 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.29%
• Current HPI: 232.28
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $306,900 MLSU
• 2026-02-01 Listed $309,900 MLSU
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-10-20 Relisted — MLSU
• 2025-10-18 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-04-18 Listed $317,000 MLSU
• 2023-06-13 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2023-01-10 Price Changed $310,000 MLSU
• 2022-11-28 Price Changed $309,900 MLSU
• 2022-08-30 Listed $306,900 MLSU

Property tax history

-16.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $290 · -16.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.