3746 New Moon Ave · The Villages, FL 32163

$478,788

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,905 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2013 8,331 sqft lot Est $539k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully maintained Sunflower (Mockingbird F) model, located in the Village of Lake Deaton, offers the perfect blend of style, comfort, and effortless Florida living. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car plus golf cart garage, this move-in ready home is designed for both everyday enjoyment and entertaining. Built in 2013, the home showcases quality finishes, tasteful upgrades, and pride of ownership throughout. Inside, you'll find an inviting open layout enhanced by warm finishes. The spacious primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with plush upgraded carpeting, dual closets, and a well-appointed ensuite featuring dual vanities, a Roman shower, and a private water close

Key facts

• Sunflower model
• Dual closets
• Open layout

Tags

• SUNFLOWER MODEL
• ENCLOSED LANAI
• OPEN LAYOUT
• DUAL CLOSETS
• PRIVATE WATER CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed (call for details)
• HOA & community: Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Two covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Resale property; Faces east
• Construction: Built with stucco and vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation and slab
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Screened patio; Patio; Corner lot; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal; Owned water purifier
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Split bedroom layout
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the main level; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry sink; Laundry located inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $479k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-825 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (30.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (36.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$82k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($472k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $301,891 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.39%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $539,115
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3567 Infinity Run	0.13mi	3/2.0	2,035 (+7%)	3mo	$485,500	$239	80
3587 Alzarine Ter	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,969 (+3%)	2mo	$879,000	$446	79
3566 Cosmos Way	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,956 (+3%)	7mo	$555,000	$284	75
3976 Ironwood Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,935 (+2%)	3mo	$710,000	$367	74
1965 Gatehouse Ter	0.32mi	3/2.0	2,035 (+7%)	4mo	$580,000	$285	70
1932 Quailey Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,923 (+1%)	4mo	$465,000	$242	69
3972 Neighborly Way	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,963 (+3%)	5mo	$467,500	$238	67
3776 E Torch Lake Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,851 (-3%)	0mo	$750,000	$405	65
3334 Norcoose Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+1%)	3mo	$395,000	$206	64
3338 Queensway Ter	0.70mi	3/2.0	2,013 (+6%)	1mo	$470,000	$233	57
3497 Oldham Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,695 (-11%)	6mo	$479,900	$283	50
3324 Queensway Ter	0.71mi	3/2.5	2,168 (+14%)	1mo	$467,000	$215	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $208,191
• Equity at exit: $431,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.88×
• Total profit: $654,386
• Equity at exit: $930,180

Cash invested: $134,061 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32163

• Home prices YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,019 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,511
• Tax from tax record: −$500 /mo · $5,997/yr
• Insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $-825

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,063

Max offer price $333,020

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,697
• Closing costs: $14,364
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3394 Ridgewood Path The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1559	$4,000	$2.57	21d	1	1.09mi
3064 Gulfport Ct The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1602	$2,800	$1.75	21d	1	1.29mi
3025 Bartow Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$3,500	$2.47	21d	1	1.34mi
2910 Monument Way The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1494	$2,600	$1.74	21d	1	1.46mi
3480 Kewadin Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1758	$2,500	$1.42	21d	1	1.49mi
7011 Homestead Lp Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$1,759	$1.76	21d	22	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $478,788 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $478,788 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $478,788 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $478,788 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $478,788 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $478,788 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $478,788 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $478,788 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $478,788 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $478,788 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $478,788 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $478,788 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $478,788 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $478,788 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $478,788 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $478,788 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,997 · $500/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,997 · $500/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,820
• − Property taxes: −$5,997
• − Insurance: −$2,394
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,898
• − Management: −$2,898
• − Depreciation: −$13,928
• Taxable loss: −$18,709
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,490
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,549
• Household income: $96,775
• Rent vs Own: 5.7% rent · 94.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.47%
• Current HPI: 229.0075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $478,788 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,997 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.