19539 Lazy Valley Dr · Houston, TX 77449

$155,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,308 sqft · Townhouse public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1980 5,405 sqft lot $119/sqft · 19% below area Est $190k · 19% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming property in a prime location! With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a spacious backyard, this home is perfect for families or those who love to entertain. The open floor plan and modern kitchen make it ideal for hosting gatherings. Enjoy the convenience of nearby amenities such as parks, schools, and shopping centers. Don't miss out on the opportunity to own this lovely home in a sought-after neighborhood. Contact me for more details and to schedule a viewing today!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Spacious backyard
• Nearby amenities

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• NEARBY AMENITIES
• SOUGHT-AFTER NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure and seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Member of Silvermill HOA with an annual fee of $420; Curbs in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1980; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Fenced yard with private backyard; Subdivision location; Concrete road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Energy-efficient HVAC components
• Interior features: Pantry; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality; One fireplace; Six total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mayde Creek H S (math 42% / reading 54%, grade D, #571 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 2,940 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 27% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.67%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,231
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -18.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19427 Plantain Dr	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,394 (+7%)	3mo	$170,000	$122	82
19411 Lazy Valley Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+3%)	10mo	$202,500	$151	75
19519 Woodglen Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,394 (+7%)	8mo	$165,000	$118	72
3335 Deermoss Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+6%)	4mo	$189,900	$137	72
19531 Lazy Valley Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+7%)	10mo	$198,900	$142	70
19214 Lazy Valley Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+3%)	7mo	$170,000	$126	70
3351 Deermoss Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,393 (+6%)	10mo	$190,000	$136	60
3347 Silverside Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+7%)	17mo	$185,000	$132	58
3306 Purslane Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+7%)	22mo	$216,000	$154	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $830
• Equity at exit: $35,410

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $15,564
• Equity at exit: $35,501

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 744
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,951 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,787/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,554

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $401	-5% $358	+0% $314	+5% $270	+10% $226
Rent	-10% $160	-5% $237	+0% $314	+5% $391	+10% $468
Rate	-1.0pp $392	-0.5pp $353	base $314	+0.5pp $274	+1.0pp $233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19434 Brook Village Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1822	$1,950	$1.07	44d	1	0.24mi
19407 Dawn Canyon Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,716	$1.09	44d	1	0.43mi
19403 Misty Cove Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1714	$1,999	$1.17	6d	1	0.53mi
20098 Morton Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,276	$1.42	44d	1	0.57mi
2622 Broomsedge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1746	$1,050	$0.60	6d	1	0.58mi
2606 Olster Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,571	$1.03	6d	1	0.58mi
2607 Cypressvine Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$2,000	$1.31	20d	1	0.59mi
19138 Morton Rd Unit TOBC2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,745	$1.60	3d	1	0.75mi
20102 Twilight Canyon Rd Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	1633	$3,395	$2.08	3d	1	0.84mi
2411 Shady Brook Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1715	$1,916	$1.12	6d	1	0.86mi
19638 Southaven Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,769	$1.05	17d	1	0.90mi
2603 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,213	$2.32	2d	39	0.93mi
2919 Amber Cliff Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,900	$1.25	44d	1	0.97mi
3130 Birchleaf Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,840	$1.08	44d	1	1.08mi
19930 Franz Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,439	$1.60	44d	1	1.10mi
19776 Clay Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,475	$1.26	44d	1	1.21mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,631	$1.35	3d	1	1.22mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 2537 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,714	$1.42	44d	1	1.22mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,663	$1.38	11d	1	1.22mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,051	$1.42	3d	1	1.22mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,083	$1.45	11d	1	1.22mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,639	$1.36	6d	1	1.22mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 2533 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,094	$1.45	44d	1	1.22mi
2500 Greenhouse Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,674	$1.39	11d	1	1.22mi
19770 Clay Rd Katy, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,818	$1.81	0d	14	1.23mi
20000 Saums Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	841	$1,839	$2.19	2d	22	1.23mi
2411 Greenhouse Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$2,008	$1.81	2d	37	1.23mi
18407 Early Green Trl Unit 1316402P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$3,988	$2.57	3d	1	1.27mi
19319 Cypress Arbor Ct Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1794	$1,940	$1.08	8d	1	1.28mi
2931 Barker Cypress Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$1,796	$1.69	2d	20	1.31mi
2014 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1129	$1,265	$1.12	44d	1	1.31mi
18747 Denise Dale Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,695	$1.49	6d	1	1.35mi
4211 Falcon Meadow Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,795	$1.25	25d	1	1.35mi
3427 W Rainmill Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,850	$1.24	25d	1	1.36mi
2219 Greenhouse Rd Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1274	$1,318	$1.03	11d	1	1.38mi
2219 Greenhouse Rd Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,894	$1.33	11d	1	1.38mi
2219 Greenhouse Rd Unit 2252 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,905	$1.34	44d	1	1.38mi
2219 Greenhouse Rd Unit 2276 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,585	$1.43	44d	1	1.38mi
2218 Greenhouse Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,236	$2.10	3d	26	1.40mi
2219 Greenhouse Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1274	$1,329	$1.04	11d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-09
   listed $155,000 Active 491-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,787 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,787 · $316/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$3,787
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,873
• − Management: −$1,873
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $1,498
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$359
• After-tax cash flow: $3,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $155,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,787 · -16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.