5003 Cimarron Dr · Medulla, FL 33813

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,210 sqft · Townhouse public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1986 7,889 sqft lot $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in a great South Lakeland location near shopping, entertainment, and great schools! This 2 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom (half duplex) features a large, open living area with vaulted ceiling. The galley style kitchen has a neat dinette area AND a breakfast bar! Each bedroom is large and has its own private bathroom plus an additional half bath in the hall. Enjoy the Florida summer evenings without mosquitos in the fully screened lanai that overlooks the ample, partially fenced backyard with no rear neighbors! Don’t miss out on the opportunity to live near all that South Lakeland has to offer!

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Updated flooring
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• SCREENED IN PATIO
• UPDATED FLOORING
• PEACEFUL RESIDENTIAL SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; No lease restrictions reported
• HOA & community: Cimarron Homeowners Association; HOA required with annual fee of $500 (about $41.67/month); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Attached property; One story; Facing east; Entry level: One
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area about 1,210–1,320 (public records) — living area 1,210; Total building area listed as 1,320
• Exterior features: Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Seven total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (other features)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($223/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#601 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 344 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $210k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,596 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.38%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-34,913
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-37,166
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33813

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 344
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,706 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,192/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,682

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $137	-5% $78	+0% $19	+5% $-41	+10% $-100
Rent	-10% $-116	-5% $-49	+0% $19	+5% $86	+10% $153
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $72	base $19	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-91

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5133 Old Road 37 Mulberry, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,565	$1.49	4d	1	0.23mi
1028 Harden Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	891	$1,200	$1.35	24d	1	0.40mi
1115 Dosseywood Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1239	$1,650	$1.33	4d	1	0.46mi
4917 Malibu Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	822	$1,195	$1.45	4d	1	0.51mi
1113 Pogonia Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1408	$1,795	$1.27	24d	1	0.55mi
1106 Brook Meadow Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,800	$1.23	4d	1	0.55mi
1106 Brook Meadow Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,900	$1.30	24d	1	0.55mi
1424 Bramblewood Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1158	$1,700	$1.47	15d	1	0.78mi
5527 Gaur Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	942	$1,550	$1.65	24d	1	0.79mi
1448 Marigold Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1055	$1,055	$1.00	4d	1	0.82mi
1089 Old South Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	764	$1,225	$1.60	4d	1	1.15mi
1143 Old South Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,299	$1.29	4d	1	1.18mi
1105 Old South Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1456	$1,400	$0.96	24d	1	1.20mi
4139 Old Road 37 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	24d	1	1.21mi
4139 Old Road 37 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	4d	1	1.21mi
4407 Highland Ln Unit 4407 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	24d	1	1.27mi
4416 Highland Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	1062	$1,500	$1.41	4d	1	1.28mi
901 Patriot Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,680	$1.44	4d	15	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $210,000 Pending 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $210,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $210,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $210,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   pricedays on market $210,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-05-09
    price $215,000
12. 2026-04-09
    listed $225,000 Active
13. 2019-07-31
    soldstatus $105,000 Sold 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    Located in a great South Lakeland location near shopping, entertainment, and great schools! This 2 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom (half duplex) features a large, open living area with vaulted ceiling. The galley style kitchen has a neat dinette area AND a breakfast bar! Each bedroom is large and has its own private bathroom plus an additional half bath in the hall. Enjoy the Florida summer evenings without mosquitos in the fully screened lanai that overlooks the ample, partially fenced backyard with no rear neighbors! Don’t miss out on the opportunity to live near all that South Lakeland has to offer!

14. 2019-07-10
    status Pending 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    Located in a great South Lakeland location near shopping, entertainment, and great schools! This 2 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom (half duplex) features a large, open living area with vaulted ceiling. The galley style kitchen has a neat dinette area AND a breakfast bar! Each bedroom is large and has its own private bathroom plus an additional half bath in the hall. Enjoy the Florida summer evenings without mosquitos in the fully screened lanai that overlooks the ample, partially fenced backyard with no rear neighbors! Don’t miss out on the opportunity to live near all that South Lakeland has to offer!

15. 2019-07-05
    listed $115,000 Active 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    Located in a great South Lakeland location near shopping, entertainment, and great schools! This 2 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom (half duplex) features a large, open living area with vaulted ceiling. The galley style kitchen has a neat dinette area AND a breakfast bar! Each bedroom is large and has its own private bathroom plus an additional half bath in the hall. Enjoy the Florida summer evenings without mosquitos in the fully screened lanai that overlooks the ample, partially fenced backyard with no rear neighbors! Don’t miss out on the opportunity to live near all that South Lakeland has to offer!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,192 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,743 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$551/yr (+$46/mo · 46.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,472
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,192
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,638
• − Management: −$1,638
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,411
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$819
• After-tax cash flow: $1,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Medulla

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #601
• US rank: #11528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Medulla, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 38,674
• Household income: $99,497
• Rent vs Own: 21.0% rent · 79.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 778.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.20%
• Current HPI: 296.1207
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+87.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-31 Sold (MLS) $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-05 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,192 · +12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.