7801 Morgan Rd · Liverpool, NY 13090

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,377 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1955 0.46 ac lot $120/sqft · 43% below area Est $288k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming cape is set on nearly a half acre, non-tract lot and is move-in ready. Freshly painted exterior and interior and brand new carpet too! Updated, spacious bathroom with walk-in shower and a first floor bedroom that offers washer and dryer for ultimate convenience. Enormous eat-in kitchen with slider to deck and a bonus room that could be a formal dining room. Two living areas from the front foyer, offer many options for living space with an open staircase to the second floor. Upstairs, there are two bedrooms with a connecting walk-in closet area and additional storage space. There is a full basement with newer furnace and tons of storage. Outside, an oversized two car garage and

Key facts

• Non-tract lot
• Slider to deck
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• NON-TRACT LOT
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• ENORMOUS EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SLIDER TO DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity; Garage door opener; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Cedar shake siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Shed(s) / exterior storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Den; Formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 5.0% in Liverpool — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#16 in NY, #363 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Liverpool Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #381 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.28%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,061
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -42.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4389 Wetzel Rd	0.22mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,416 (+3%)	8mo	$257,500	$182	71
7745 Whiffletree Ln	0.22mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,472 (+7%)	12mo	$281,500	$191	61
7878 Morgan Rd	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,536 (+12%)	8mo	$300,000	$195	60
17 Mango Ln	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,450 (+5%)	7mo	$259,900	$179	53
7968 Caraway Dr	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,480 (+8%)	14mo	$260,000	$176	51
4263 Vega	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,300 (-6%)	16mo	$246,000	$189	50
4252 Vega Crse	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,248 (-9%)	9mo	$225,000	$180	48
4264 Altair Crse	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,288 (-6%)	14mo	$280,000	$217	48
7975 Caraway Dr	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,532 (+11%)	11mo	$265,000	$173	47
2 Ilex Ln	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,234 (-10%)	7mo	$175,750	$142	42
4305 Luna Crse	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,516 (+10%)	9mo	$295,000	$195	40
13 Ilex Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,234 (-10%)	8mo	$210,000	$170	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-8,767
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $15,866
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13090

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,004 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$369 /mo · $4,426/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,649

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $374	-5% $327	+0% $280	+5% $233	+10% $187
Rent	-10% $122	-5% $201	+0% $280	+5% $359	+10% $438
Rate	-1.0pp $363	-0.5pp $322	base $280	+0.5pp $237	+1.0pp $194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4314 Wetzel Rd Liverpool, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	44d	1	0.40mi
1 Gallowgate Ct Liverpool, NY	3.0	1.5	1585	$1,698	$1.07	14d	1	1.20mi
7648 Autumnal Ln Liverpool, NY	3.0	1.5	1100	$2,500	$2.27	14d	1	1.23mi
66 Grampian Rd Liverpool, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	840	$1,300	$1.55	44d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 759-char remark
2. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Under Contract 759-char remark
3. 2026-05-06
   listed $165,000 Active 759-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,426 · $369/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,426 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$4,426
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,924
• − Management: −$1,924
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $904
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$217
• After-tax cash flow: $3,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liverpool Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617520
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $59,134
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3134
• State rank: #381 of 590 in NY

Livability — Liverpool

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #363

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• City population: 29,004
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,004
• Household income: $88,492
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 733.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.53%
• Current HPI: 320.4989
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $165,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,426 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.