6 Beach Dr · Big Coppitt Key, FL 33040

$424,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 460 sqft · Manufactured public records · 302 Days on market

Built 1966 4,860 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare DOUBLE SIZE LOT on OPEN WATER with BOATING ACCESS and ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND!! This lot offers magnificent sunset views over the open water and has plenty of room to add a dock for your boat. There is a canal cut around the perimeter of Saddlebunch Key giving the property shallow boating access to the Atlantic and Gulf. This subdivision has a nice park with tennis & pickleball courts, bocce, basketball, a fenced playground and large grassy area to enjoy. Baby's Coffee is a short walk from this property. Located just 10 minutes from Key West, where you will find superior dining and nightly entertainment, unique boutique shopping, plus major grocery chains, gyms, and most anything you could need. Build your dream home now, and enjoy beautiful open water sunset views forever. ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND means no waiting and hoping for a building right, this property comes with one!

Key facts

• Rogo exempt property
• Boating access
• 4,860 sq ft lot

Tags

• ROGO EXEMPT PROPERTY
• BOATING ACCESS
• OPEN WATER SUNSET VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Cash or other specified terms; Rentals allowed with restrictions (minimum 28 days); Pets allowed
• HOA & community: No association fees; No association first right of refusal; No HOA services included

Exterior

• Security: No security systems
• Utilities: FKAA water; Municipal sewer with public sewer hook-up; Buyer to verify utilities
• Home design: Trailer park subdivision (Bay Point Trlr Pk); Located on the ocean side; Facing near mile marker 15
• Construction: Built in 1961; Other construction type; Not built above flood
• Exterior features: On waterfront (bay front, open water, canal front); Bay/Gulf, open water and canal views; Less than 1/4 acre lot; Flood zone AE

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: No appliances included; Fixer upper condition

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $424k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-835 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (34.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (31.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.5% in Big Coppitt Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Monroe (town): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 73 in FL (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 496 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 332 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (42 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 302 days — a 12% lower offer ($373k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $424k implies a 157% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $276,444 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 302 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.13%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-117,259
• Equity at exit: $63,220

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-150,970
• Equity at exit: $36,660

Cash invested: $118,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33040

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 496
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,890 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,224
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,502/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $-835

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,948

Max offer price $276,444

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-595	-5% $-715	+0% $-835	+5% $-955	+10% $-1,075
Rent	-10% $-1,064	-5% $-949	+0% $-835	+5% $-721	+10% $-607
Rate	-1.0pp $-622	-0.5pp $-727	base $-835	+0.5pp $-945	+1.0pp $-1,057

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,000
• Closing costs: $12,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $424,000 Active 302 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $424,000 Active 301 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $424,000 Active 300 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $424,000 Active 299 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $424,000 Active 298 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $424,000 Active 296 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $424,000 Active 295 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $424,000 Active 293 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $424,000 Active 292 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $424,000 Active 291 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $424,000 Active 290 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $424,000 Active 287 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $424,000 Active 286 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $424,000 Active 285 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $424,000 Active 284 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $424,000 Active 283 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $424,000 Active 282 DOM
18. 2026-05-23
    price $424,000 906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Rare DOUBLE SIZE LOT on OPEN WATER with BOATING ACCESS and ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND!! This lot offers magnificent sunset views over the open water and has plenty of room to add a dock for your boat. There is a canal cut around the perimeter of Saddlebunch Key giving the property shallow boating access to the Atlantic and Gulf. This subdivision has a nice park with tennis & pickleball courts, bocce, basketball, a fenced playground and large grassy area to enjoy. Baby's Coffee is a short walk from this property. Located just 10 minutes from Key West, where you will find superior dining and nightly entertainment, unique boutique shopping, plus major grocery chains, gyms, and most anything you could need. Build your dream home now, and enjoy beautiful open water sunset views forever. ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND means no waiting and hoping for a building right, this property comes with one!

19. 2026-05-23
    price $424,000

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Rare DOUBLE SIZE LOT on OPEN WATER with BOATING ACCESS and ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND!! This lot offers magnificent sunset views over the open water and has plenty of room to add a dock for your boat. There is a canal cut around the perimeter of Saddlebunch Key giving the property shallow boating access to the Atlantic and Gulf. This subdivision has a nice park with tennis & pickleball courts, bocce, basketball, a fenced playground and large grassy area to enjoy. Baby's Coffee is a short walk from this property. Located just 10 minutes from Key West, where you will find superior dining and nightly entertainment, unique boutique shopping, plus major grocery chains, gyms, and most anything you could need. Build your dream home now, and enjoy beautiful open water sunset views forever. ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND means no waiting and hoping for a building right, this property comes with one!

20. 2026-03-18
    price $425,000

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Rare DOUBLE SIZE LOT on OPEN WATER with BOATING ACCESS and ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND!! This lot offers magnificent sunset views over the open water and has plenty of room to add a dock for your boat. There is a canal cut around the perimeter of Saddlebunch Key giving the property shallow boating access to the Atlantic and Gulf. This subdivision has a nice park with tennis & pickleball courts, bocce, basketball, a fenced playground and large grassy area to enjoy. Baby's Coffee is a short walk from this property. Located just 10 minutes from Key West, where you will find superior dining and nightly entertainment, unique boutique shopping, plus major grocery chains, gyms, and most anything you could need. Build your dream home now, and enjoy beautiful open water sunset views forever. ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND means no waiting and hoping for a building right, this property comes with one!

21. 2026-03-18
    price $425,000 906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Rare DOUBLE SIZE LOT on OPEN WATER with BOATING ACCESS and ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND!! This lot offers magnificent sunset views over the open water and has plenty of room to add a dock for your boat. There is a canal cut around the perimeter of Saddlebunch Key giving the property shallow boating access to the Atlantic and Gulf. This subdivision has a nice park with tennis & pickleball courts, bocce, basketball, a fenced playground and large grassy area to enjoy. Baby's Coffee is a short walk from this property. Located just 10 minutes from Key West, where you will find superior dining and nightly entertainment, unique boutique shopping, plus major grocery chains, gyms, and most anything you could need. Build your dream home now, and enjoy beautiful open water sunset views forever. ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND means no waiting and hoping for a building right, this property comes with one!

22. 2026-01-14
    price $450,000

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Rare DOUBLE SIZE LOT on OPEN WATER with BOATING ACCESS and ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND!! This lot offers magnificent sunset views over the open water and has plenty of room to add a dock for your boat. There is a canal cut around the perimeter of Saddlebunch Key giving the property shallow boating access to the Atlantic and Gulf. This subdivision has a nice park with tennis & pickleball courts, bocce, basketball, a fenced playground and large grassy area to enjoy. Baby's Coffee is a short walk from this property. Located just 10 minutes from Key West, where you will find superior dining and nightly entertainment, unique boutique shopping, plus major grocery chains, gyms, and most anything you could need. Build your dream home now, and enjoy beautiful open water sunset views forever. ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND means no waiting and hoping for a building right, this property comes with one!

23. 2026-01-14
    price $450,000 906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Rare DOUBLE SIZE LOT on OPEN WATER with BOATING ACCESS and ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND!! This lot offers magnificent sunset views over the open water and has plenty of room to add a dock for your boat. There is a canal cut around the perimeter of Saddlebunch Key giving the property shallow boating access to the Atlantic and Gulf. This subdivision has a nice park with tennis & pickleball courts, bocce, basketball, a fenced playground and large grassy area to enjoy. Baby's Coffee is a short walk from this property. Located just 10 minutes from Key West, where you will find superior dining and nightly entertainment, unique boutique shopping, plus major grocery chains, gyms, and most anything you could need. Build your dream home now, and enjoy beautiful open water sunset views forever. ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND means no waiting and hoping for a building right, this property comes with one!

24. 2025-09-23
    price $472,000

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Rare DOUBLE SIZE LOT on OPEN WATER with BOATING ACCESS and ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND!! This lot offers magnificent sunset views over the open water and has plenty of room to add a dock for your boat. There is a canal cut around the perimeter of Saddlebunch Key giving the property shallow boating access to the Atlantic and Gulf. This subdivision has a nice park with tennis & pickleball courts, bocce, basketball, a fenced playground and large grassy area to enjoy. Baby's Coffee is a short walk from this property. Located just 10 minutes from Key West, where you will find superior dining and nightly entertainment, unique boutique shopping, plus major grocery chains, gyms, and most anything you could need. Build your dream home now, and enjoy beautiful open water sunset views forever. ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND means no waiting and hoping for a building right, this property comes with one!

25. 2025-09-23
    price $472,000 906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Rare DOUBLE SIZE LOT on OPEN WATER with BOATING ACCESS and ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND!! This lot offers magnificent sunset views over the open water and has plenty of room to add a dock for your boat. There is a canal cut around the perimeter of Saddlebunch Key giving the property shallow boating access to the Atlantic and Gulf. This subdivision has a nice park with tennis & pickleball courts, bocce, basketball, a fenced playground and large grassy area to enjoy. Baby's Coffee is a short walk from this property. Located just 10 minutes from Key West, where you will find superior dining and nightly entertainment, unique boutique shopping, plus major grocery chains, gyms, and most anything you could need. Build your dream home now, and enjoy beautiful open water sunset views forever. ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND means no waiting and hoping for a building right, this property comes with one!

26. 2025-08-21
    listed $499,000 Active 906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Rare DOUBLE SIZE LOT on OPEN WATER with BOATING ACCESS and ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND!! This lot offers magnificent sunset views over the open water and has plenty of room to add a dock for your boat. There is a canal cut around the perimeter of Saddlebunch Key giving the property shallow boating access to the Atlantic and Gulf. This subdivision has a nice park with tennis & pickleball courts, bocce, basketball, a fenced playground and large grassy area to enjoy. Baby's Coffee is a short walk from this property. Located just 10 minutes from Key West, where you will find superior dining and nightly entertainment, unique boutique shopping, plus major grocery chains, gyms, and most anything you could need. Build your dream home now, and enjoy beautiful open water sunset views forever. ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND means no waiting and hoping for a building right, this property comes with one!

27. 2025-08-21
    listed $499,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Rare DOUBLE SIZE LOT on OPEN WATER with BOATING ACCESS and ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND!! This lot offers magnificent sunset views over the open water and has plenty of room to add a dock for your boat. There is a canal cut around the perimeter of Saddlebunch Key giving the property shallow boating access to the Atlantic and Gulf. This subdivision has a nice park with tennis & pickleball courts, bocce, basketball, a fenced playground and large grassy area to enjoy. Baby's Coffee is a short walk from this property. Located just 10 minutes from Key West, where you will find superior dining and nightly entertainment, unique boutique shopping, plus major grocery chains, gyms, and most anything you could need. Build your dream home now, and enjoy beautiful open water sunset views forever. ROGO EXEMPT LETTER IN HAND means no waiting and hoping for a building right, this property comes with one!

28. 2020-05-15
    historical
29. 2017-02-01
    listed $329,123
30. 2015-09-09
    soldstatus $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,502 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,519 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: +$17/yr (+$1/mo · 0.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,682
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,751
• − Property taxes: −$3,502
• − Insurance: −$7,238
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,775
• − Management: −$2,775
• − Depreciation: −$12,335
• Taxable loss: −$17,692
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,246
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe
• NCES district ID: 1201320
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,955
• Composite: 45.51/100
• National rank: #2608
• State rank: #23 of 73 in FL

Livability — Big Coppitt Key

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #13457

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 66,185 people
• Metro: Key West, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,429
• Household income: $86,586
• Rent vs Own: 49.8% rent · 50.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2502.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,706 people
• By 2030: 96,308 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 106,565 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 116,500 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 141,423 · +55.9%
• By 2100: 151,947 · +67.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 16% Black 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 14%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 6% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: R (+18.3) · D 40.5% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: -18.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.3 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -814.48%
• Current HPI: 168.5706
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.52%
• Metro: Key West, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+157.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $424,000 FLKMLS
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $424,000 FLKMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $425,000 FLKMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $425,000 FLKMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $450,000 FLKMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $450,000 FLKMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $472,000 FLKMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $472,000 FLKMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $499,000 FLKMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $499,000 FLKMLS
• 2020-05-15 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2017-02-01 Listed $329,123 FLKMLS
• 2015-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,502 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.