424 New Jersey Ave · Hawthorne, FL 32640

$155,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1984 0.70 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well taken care of 2/1 single wide mobil home. Owner says make offer. The home is also for rent.

Key facts

• 0.7 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1984

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking; Carport (2 spaces); Detached carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single wide mobile home; Single-family use
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches with screened porch; Full yard fencing; Shed(s); Few trees on the lot; County road frontage with dirt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Ice maker

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.7% in Hawthorne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#376 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Putnam (town): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #66 of 73 in FL (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,799 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.03%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-15,921
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,252
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32640

• Home prices YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,328 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $312/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,144

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $155,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-16
    status Pending
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $155,000 Active
16. 2008-03-31
    historical 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Well taken care of 2/1 single wide mobil home. Owner says make offer. The home is also for rent.

17. 2007-09-04
    listed $49,900 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Well taken care of 2/1 single wide mobil home. Owner says make offer. The home is also for rent.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $312 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,286 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$974/yr (+$81/mo · 312.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$312
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,275
• − Management: −$1,275
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$892
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$214
• After-tax cash flow: $1,962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Putnam
• NCES district ID: 1201620
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,350
• Composite: 29.99/100
• National rank: #6361
• State rank: #66 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hawthorne

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #376
• US rank: #6630

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,780

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,299 people
• By 2030: 61,255 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 52,930 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 45,051 · -31.0%
• By 2075: 28,720 · -56.0%
• By 2100: 15,852 · -75.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 24% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.8% · R 73.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+41.2 2016: R+36.6 2012: R+24.5 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.68%
• Current HPI: 278.0079
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+210.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $155,000 realMLS
• 2008-03-31 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2007-09-04 Listed $49,900 realMLS

Property tax history

-6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $312 · +19.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.