1453 Twillman Ave · Spanish Lake, MO 63138

$55,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1928 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BUNGALOW home, 1 bedroom, 1 bath, living room, kitchen and dining room sitting on a half acre lot. Semi private street. Deep lot with a 1 car garage. .5 acres to housed your business items. Great for a small/midsize business owner to possibly operate in lawn care, car repair, roofing, Airbnb etc. . Deep driveway will hold up to 4 cars. Property sold as-is. Seller will not make any repairs nor pay for any inspections. No inspection contingency. Preview property prior to making an offer. Mainly for investors to rehab. Unincorporated area!!

Key facts

• Semi private street
• Deep lot
• 1 car garage

Tags

• HALF ACRE LOT
• SEMI PRIVATE STREET
• DEEP LOT
• 1 CAR GARAGE
• DEEP DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as residential single family; Above-grade living area reported from public records

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with space for 1 car (approx. 280 sq ft)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer (sewer connected); Electric service by Ameren
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Asbestos construction material; Asbestos shingle roof; Built data from public records
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Back yard; Level lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the main level
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Other heating type; No cooling
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; Kitchen; Fixer condition
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in the kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($978 rent vs $55k).
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 7.9% in Spanish Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#870 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Twillman Elem. (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,072 of 1,115 statewide, top 98%, 326 students, 99% FRL); Hazelwood East High (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #495 of 521 statewide, top 95%, 1,264 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 53% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.68%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $12,507
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $31,146
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63138

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $963/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $496

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1333 N Garden Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	626	$1,100	$1.76	44d	1	0.77mi
1342 N Garden Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	626	$1,100	$1.76	2d	3	0.81mi
1585 Leonaire Ct Unit 1585-87 Leonaire St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$750	$1.36	44d	1	1.26mi
1574 Leonaire Ct Unit 1510 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$750	$1.36	44d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $55,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 545-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $55,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $963 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $963 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$963
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$939
• − Management: −$939
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $3,938
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$945
• After-tax cash flow: $3,626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Spanish Lake

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #25189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spanish Lake, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,233
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,233
• Household income: $56,096
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 925.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.09%
• Current HPI: 165.2146
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+57.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Coming Soon $55,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1991-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $34,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $963 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.