766 Burntwood Trl #734 · Toms River, NJ 08753

$300,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,532 sqft · Condo public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1985 $445/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CALLING ALL INVESTORS! Desirable end-unit condominium offering strong potential and an ideal layout. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and an attached garage, this property appeals to a wide range of tenants and future buyers alike. Prime location close to major shopping, walking distance to Toms River High School North and Bey Lea Golf Course. This is an opportunity you don't want to miss.

Key facts

• End-unit condominium
• Ideal layout
• Prime location

Tags

• END-UNIT CONDOMINIUM
• IDEAL LAYOUT
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-865/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (4.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $287k (4.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 424 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $287,260 (4.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.03%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-57,620
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-73,628
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08753

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,196 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$454 /mo · $5,443/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$445
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$671
• Net cashflow: $-72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,287

Max offer price $287,260

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $98	-5% $13	+0% $-72	+5% $-157	+10% $-242
Rent	-10% $-325	-5% $-198	+0% $-72	+5% $54	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $79	-0.5pp $4	base $-72	+0.5pp $-150	+1.0pp $-229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
316 Burntwood Trl Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.5	1710	$2,950	$1.73	44d	1	0.06mi
30 Green View Way Toms River, NJ	1.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1450	$3,410	$2.35	2d	1	0.46mi
3600 Cypress Point Dr Toms River, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1170	$2,964	$2.53	2d	18	0.65mi
100 Kaplan Ct Toms River, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1123	$3,007	$2.68	17d	9	0.93mi
13 Swain Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,199	$2.13	17d	1	1.27mi
830 Brookside Dr Toms River, NJ	4.0	3.5	1985	$3,700	$1.86	2d	1	1.32mi
1091 W Whitty Rd Toms River, NJ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1758	$4,025	$2.29	2d	4	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $445 · $5,340/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-23
   listed $300,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,443 · $454/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,456 · $538/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,014/yr (+$84/mo · 18.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$5,443
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,068
• − Management: −$3,068
• − HOA: −$5,340
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,601
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,344
• After-tax cash flow: $479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 65,448
• Household income: $105,224
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 828.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -527.36%
• Current HPI: 374.5075
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $300,000 MOMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,443 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.