126 SW Mockingbird Way · Lake City, FL 32024

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,793 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 335 Days on market

Built 1985 0.60 ac lot Est $321k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Very Liveable home is located near I75 On Southside of Lake City, yet minutes from Shopping, Restaurants and a resurgent Downtown. Neighbors are fantastic with well kept yards. The home itself is large in every respect. There is an addition of a studio-office. Reroofed and replumbed since the original build. Come and see what this home can offer you.

Key facts

• Modern updates
• Re-plumbed
• Real wood cabinets

Tags

• 0.65-ACRE CORNER LOT
• MODERN UPDATES
• RE-ROOFED
• RE-PLUMBED
• SITUATED OUTSIDE A FLOOD ZONE
• REAL WOOD CABINETS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Private well water; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story residential home
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.604-acre lot
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Chain link and wood fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-438 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (39.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.7% in Lake City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 335 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $260k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,698 (39.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 335 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.28%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $320,947
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 SW Jack Gln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,763 (-2%)	0mo	$340,000	$193	78
191 SW Vernon Way	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,712 (-4%)	6mo	$225,000	$131	71
128 SW Angela Ter	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,976 (+10%)	15mo	$285,000	$144	63
153 SW Asheville Way	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,947 (+9%)	12mo	$354,000	$182	62
307 SW Rayburn Ct	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,988 (+11%)	7mo	$265,000	$133	60
166 SW Angela Ter	0.17mi	3/2.0	2,023 (+13%)	14mo	$285,000	$141	59
124 SW Randall Ter	0.29mi	3/2.0	2,044 (+14%)	6mo	$299,000	$146	58
335 SW Arrowbend Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+0%)	5mo	$370,000	$206	58
284 SW Burnett Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,708 (-5%)	15mo	$84,000	$49	54
156 SW Erskine Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,694 (-6%)	12mo	$392,500	$232	48
830 SW Chesterfield Cir	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,640 (-8%)	11mo	$402,000	$245	48
198 SW Wise Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,616 (-10%)	10mo	$290,000	$179	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $134,867
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $418,909
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32024

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,817 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,168/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,371

Max offer price $221,658

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,000 Active 335 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 334 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 333 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 332 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 331 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 329 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,000 Active 328 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 325 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 324 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 323 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 320 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 319 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 318 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 317 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 316 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 315 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    status Active
18. 2026-05-15
    price $314,900
19. 2026-03-30
    status Active
20. 2026-03-30
    status Active
21. 2026-03-27
    status Pending
22. 2026-03-06
    price $276,000
23. 2026-03-06
    price $276,000
24. 2026-01-09
    price $279,000
25. 2026-01-08
    price $279,000
26. 2025-12-06
    price $289,900
27. 2025-12-06
    price $289,900
28. 2025-06-05
    listed $299,900 Active
29. 2025-06-04
    listed $299,900 Active
30. 2024-12-06
    soldstatus $260,000
31. 2024-12-05
    soldstatus $260,000 Closed 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    This Very Liveable home is located near I75 On Southside of Lake City, yet minutes from Shopping, Restaurants and a resurgent Downtown. Neighbors are fantastic with well kept yards. The home itself is large in every respect. There is an addition of a studio-office. Reroofed and replumbed since the original build. Come and see what this home can offer you.

32. 2024-11-25
    historical Active Under Contract 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    This Very Liveable home is located near I75 On Southside of Lake City, yet minutes from Shopping, Restaurants and a resurgent Downtown. Neighbors are fantastic with well kept yards. The home itself is large in every respect. There is an addition of a studio-office. Reroofed and replumbed since the original build. Come and see what this home can offer you.

33. 2024-11-13
    price $275,000 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    This Very Liveable home is located near I75 On Southside of Lake City, yet minutes from Shopping, Restaurants and a resurgent Downtown. Neighbors are fantastic with well kept yards. The home itself is large in every respect. There is an addition of a studio-office. Reroofed and replumbed since the original build. Come and see what this home can offer you.

34. 2024-10-31
    price $285,900 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    This Very Liveable home is located near I75 On Southside of Lake City, yet minutes from Shopping, Restaurants and a resurgent Downtown. Neighbors are fantastic with well kept yards. The home itself is large in every respect. There is an addition of a studio-office. Reroofed and replumbed since the original build. Come and see what this home can offer you.

35. 2024-10-18
    listed $289,900 Active 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    This Very Liveable home is located near I75 On Southside of Lake City, yet minutes from Shopping, Restaurants and a resurgent Downtown. Neighbors are fantastic with well kept yards. The home itself is large in every respect. There is an addition of a studio-office. Reroofed and replumbed since the original build. Come and see what this home can offer you.

36. 2019-03-25
    soldstatus $179,900
37. 2019-02-08
    soldstatus $179,900
38. 2009-04-24
    soldstatus $100,000
39. 2003-07-17
    soldstatus $116,500
40. 2001-07-20
    soldstatus $94,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,168 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,482 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$314/yr (+$26/mo · 14.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$2,168
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,744
• − Management: −$1,744
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$10,795
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,591
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 40,507
• Population (ZIP): 20,644

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.05%
• Current HPI: 269.4659
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+235.0% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — NFMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $314,900 NFMLS
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — NFMLS
• 2026-03-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $276,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $276,000 NFMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $279,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $279,000 NFMLS
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $289,900 NFMLS
• 2025-06-05 Listed $299,900 NFMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-05 Sold (MLS) $260,000 NFMLS
• 2024-11-25 Contingent — NFMLS
• 2024-11-13 Price Changed $275,000 NFMLS
• 2024-10-31 Price Changed $285,900 NFMLS
• 2024-10-18 Listed $289,900 NFMLS
• 2019-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $179,900 Public Records
• 2019-02-08 Sold (MLS) $179,900 NFMLS
• 2009-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2003-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $116,500 Public Records
• 2001-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,168 · -29.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.