351 Essex Rd · Vermilion, OH 44089

$250,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,012 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $167k · 50% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A-frame style with 3 bedrooms, basement, deck close to Lake Erie.

Key facts

• Built 1980
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-153/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 5.0% in Vermilion — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in OH, #1,481 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Vermilion Local (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #316 of 656 in OH (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $250k implies a 2400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $199,316 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $166,980
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
230 Fairfax Rd	0.15mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (+4%)	7mo	$194,000	$184	73
208 Overlook Rd	0.31mi	4/1.0	1,054 (+4%)	10mo	$82,500	$78	68
387 Harcourt Rd	0.14mi	3/1.0 (-1)	912 (-10%)	2mo	$209,900	$230	68
678 Highbridge Rd	0.37mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,056 (+4%)	10mo	$190,000	$180	63
236 Devonshire Rd	0.23mi	3/1.0 (-1)	936 (-8%)	9mo	$180,000	$192	62
321 Overlook Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	912 (-10%)	11mo	$116,000	$127	53
348 Elberta Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (+2%)	9mo	$170,000	$165	50
279 Kensington Rd	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	884 (-13%)	6mo	$110,000	$124	42
278 Mornington Rd	0.37mi	3/1.0 (-1)	884 (-13%)	17mo	$140,450	$159	40
332 Claremont Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,142 (+13%)	14mo	$170,000	$149	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-41,377
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-37,302
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44089

• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,993 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,065/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,009

Max offer price $247,753

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $250,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $250,000 Active
15. 2015-01-05
    soldstatus $10,000 65-char remark

    Show marketing remark (65 chars)

    A-frame style with 3 bedrooms, basement, deck close to Lake Erie.

16. 2014-12-05
    historical 65-char remark

    Show marketing remark (65 chars)

    A-frame style with 3 bedrooms, basement, deck close to Lake Erie.

17. 2014-11-06
    listed $9,500 65-char remark

    Show marketing remark (65 chars)

    A-frame style with 3 bedrooms, basement, deck close to Lake Erie.

18. 2006-05-19
    soldstatus $70,500 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Great A Frame Style 4 Bedroom House Priced Well Under Value! Sliding Doors Off Great Room To Deck. Basement Has Fourth Bedroom And Bonus/ Rec Room. Lots Of Square Footage For A Great Price. View It Today!

19. 2006-05-19
    soldstatus $70,500

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Great A Frame Style 4 Bedroom House Priced Well Under Value! Sliding Doors Off Great Room To Deck. Basement Has Fourth Bedroom And Bonus/ Rec Room. Lots Of Square Footage For A Great Price. View It Today!

20. 2006-05-19
    soldstatus $70,500

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Great A Frame Style 4 Bedroom House Priced Well Under Value! Sliding Doors Off Great Room To Deck. Basement Has Fourth Bedroom And Bonus/ Rec Room. Lots Of Square Footage For A Great Price. View It Today!

21. 2006-04-01
    listed $71,500 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Great A Frame Style 4 Bedroom House Priced Well Under Value! Sliding Doors Off Great Room To Deck. Basement Has Fourth Bedroom And Bonus/ Rec Room. Lots Of Square Footage For A Great Price. View It Today!

22. 1999-09-24
    soldstatus $67,000
23. 1999-09-24
    soldstatus $67,000
24. 1999-06-30
    listed $69,900
25. 1994-01-12
    soldstatus $57,900
26. 1993-12-30
    soldstatus $57,900
27. 1993-10-13
    listed $59,900
28. 1993-10-12
    historical
29. 1993-04-12
    listed $59,875
30. 1989-12-29
    soldstatus $43,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,065 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,983 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: +$917/yr (+$76/mo · 44.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,065
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,913
• − Management: −$1,913
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,501
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,080
• After-tax cash flow: $928/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vermilion Local
• NCES district ID: 3904682
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,091
• Composite: 49.61/100
• National rank: #1981
• State rank: #316 of 656 in OH

Livability — Vermilion

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1481

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vermilion, OH
• County: Erie · 78,232 people
• Metro: Sandusky, OH
• Population (ZIP): 15,873
• Household income: $72,045
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.8

Population outlook (Lorain County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,924 people
• By 2030: 317,546 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 317,962 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 312,872 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 301,806 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 278,271 · -11.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lorain

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 46.7% · R 52.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.9pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+0.3 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.76%
• Current HPI: 206.8223
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+474.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $250,000 FSBO.com
• 2015-01-05 Sold (MLS) $10,000 MLSNOW
• 2014-12-05 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2014-11-06 Listed $9,500 MLSNOW
• 2006-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $70,500 Public Records
• 2006-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $70,500 Public Records
• 2006-05-19 Sold (MLS) $70,500 MLSNOW
• 2006-04-01 Listed $71,500 MLSNOW
• 1999-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
• 1999-09-24 Sold (MLS) $67,000 MLSNOW
• 1999-06-30 Listed $69,900 MLSNOW
• 1994-01-12 Sold (MLS) $57,900 MLSNOW
• 1993-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $57,900 Public Records
• 1993-10-13 Listed $59,900 MLSNOW
• 1993-10-12 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 1993-04-12 Listed $59,875 MLSNOW
• 1989-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $43,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,065 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.