127 W Northrup Pl · Buffalo, NY 14214

$179,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 1920 Average condition 3,597 sqft lot $128/sqft · 26% below area Est $244k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 5 bedroom Dutch Colonial for sale in the University district of Buffalo, NY. Freshly painted exterior, laminate floors, , eat in kitchen, and spacious living room w/ sun room, 1 bedrooms, full bath on the 1st floor . Good-sized lot with off-street parking w/ 2 car detached garage. Patio door leads to a wooded deck and a fenced yard. Basement with glass block windows, copper plumbing, updated furnace, AC may need freon. Great location on a quiet street, walking distance to the University of Buffalo & , Buffalo Subway system, bike path, restaurants and shopping. Currently tenant occupied, paying $2,200 per month. This would be great investment or owner occupied property

Key facts

• Laminate floors
• Eat in kitchen
• Front porch

Tags

• FRESHLY PAINTED EXTERIOR
• LAMINATE FLOORS
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• SUN ROOM
• FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Community/coop sewer; Circuit breaker electrical service
• Home design: Two-story home; Existing (previously built) property; City street frontage; Rectangular residential lot, near public transit
• Construction: Frame construction; Stone foundation; Asphalt roof; Copper and PEX plumbing
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom; Three additional bedrooms on the second level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $179,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$243,934) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $575 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 90 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,302/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1820% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $174,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.71%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,934
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -26.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 W Northrup Pl N Unit N	0.01mi	5/2.5	1,408 (0%)	8mo	$215,000	$153	91
69 W Northrup Pl Unit N	0.11mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,408 (0%)	9mo	$220,000	$156	78
142 Englewood Ave	0.30mi	5/1.5	1,504 (+7%)	4mo	$215,000	$143	69
83 Custer St	0.07mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,295 (-8%)	6mo	$170,000	$131	69
66 Northrup Pl	0.38mi	5/2.0	1,480 (+5%)	11mo	$245,000	$166	65
15 Montcalm St	0.38mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,355 (-4%)	6mo	$270,000	$199	64
430 Parker Ave	0.40mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,512 (+7%)	6mo	$300,000	$198	57
27 Taft Pl	0.65mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+3%)	11mo	$335,000	$230	50
106 Lasalle Ave	0.41mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,563 (+11%)	7mo	$205,000	$131	49
176 Lasalle Ave	0.51mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,601 (+14%)	2mo	$270,000	$169	47
253 Winspear Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (+12%)	6mo	$315,100	$199	35
78 Shirley Ave	0.67mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,204 (-14%)	6mo	$200,000	$166	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $14,220
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $88,800
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14214

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,302 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $575

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
60 Englewood Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	2d	1	0.32mi
65 Northrup Pl Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	1467	$2,500	$1.70	14d	1	0.36mi
89 Lasalle Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1024	$2,997	$2.93	2d	10	0.41mi
222 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	24d	1	0.58mi
91 Springville Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1660	$2,350	$1.42	24d	1	1.05mi
151 Lamson Rd Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1382	$2,350	$1.70	17d	1	1.32mi
189 Westminster Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1065	$1,595	$1.50	10d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $179,900 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $179,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $179,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-04-23
   listed $179,900 Active 690-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,210
• − Management: −$2,210
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $4,296
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,031
• After-tax cash flow: $5,873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This charming Dutch Colonial requires moderate renovations, focusing on exterior siding, interior walls, and flooring to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major Interior walls — Paint appears worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace laminate flooring — Improves living space and adds value
• Both Replace exterior siding — Significant wear and tear, improves curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Paint appears worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace laminate flooring — Improves living space and adds value ↑
• Both Replace exterior siding — Significant wear and tear, improves curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,314
• Household income: $58,228
• Rent vs Own: 57.7% rent · 42.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1820.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 31% Asian 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -282.52%
• Current HPI: 373.377
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.81%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $179,900 WNYREIS